Market Event Studies, Starting With Historical Samples

Each study records actuals versus , then uses the last pre-release price as the baseline for QQQ/SPY moves 1/5/15/30/60 minutes after the release.

These results describe historical price reactions; they do not establish causality or constitute trading advice.

QQQ/SPY Price Reactions After CPI Releases

Built from official U.S. releases, this summary compares 15-minute QQQ/SPY reactions for cooler and hotter prints; the full study also includes in-line-with- samples and every reaction window.

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15 minutes after release · Historical medians

The full study lets you switch across 1/5/15/30/60-minute windows.

Cooler CPI (Below expectations)Cooler CPI · 18 samples
QQQ+0.38%SPY+0.24%
18 samples
Hotter CPI (Above expectations)Hotter CPI · 13 samples
QQQ-0.07%SPY-0.06%
13 samples
QQQ relative to SPY
+0.5 bp
15-minute relative change median · 43 samples
Official releases
43
Release range
Jan 12, 2023 — Aug 12, 2026
Updated
Aug 15, 2026
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Research standard

One Standard Across Every Event Study

  1. 01Define the Event

    Use official release dates and a fixed event-time contract instead of broad keyword matches.

  2. 02Replay the Curve

    Measure QQQ/SPY from the same pre-event price anchor across comparable reaction windows.

  3. 03Keep It Auditable

    Disclose data range, sample count, source quality, price-anchor quality, and caveats.

Up next

Research Roadmap

The event-study library will follow the macro pricing chain from inflation and employment to Fed decisions, rates, and equity reactions.

  1. 01CPIPublished
  2. 02PPIPlanned
  3. 03PCEPlanned
  4. 04Jobs reportPlanned
  5. 05FOMCPlanned