QQQ/SPY price reactions after CPI releases

An event study of 42 official U.S. CPI release events at 08:30 ET. Forty-one regular releases have comparable headline/core MoM surprise data; one special release remains in the event history but outside those buckets.

Browse official CPI releases Search inflation news

Release range2023-01-12 to 2026-07-14

Based on BLS release dates; both boundary dates are included.

Official releases42

41 releases have comparable MoM surprise data; one special release is retained separately.

Average absolute price moveQQQ 0.28% / SPY 0.23%

Average absolute 15-minute price move after converting every release reaction to a positive magnitude.

Median 15-minute returnQQQ +0.04%SPY +0.04%

The underlying medians are QQQ +0.0445% and SPY +0.0399%; this summary card rounds both to +0.04%.

Key findings

Key findings from the historical sample

Reaction window

Uses the last pre-release price as the baseline and measures the selected number of minutes after the release.

Cooler CPI (Below expectations)

QQQ: +0.38%Up in 77.8% of samples
SPY: +0.24%Up in 77.8% of samples

15m post-release price move median · 18 samples

Hotter CPI (Above expectations)

QQQ: -0.07%Down in 61.5% of samples
SPY: -0.06%Down in 53.8% of samples

15m post-release price move median · 13 samples

QQQ versus SPY

+1.0bp

Median 15-minute relative return, QQQ minus SPY · average absolute relative return 7.2bp

Chapter 1 · CPI basics

Read CPI first, then follow how markets price it

These four sections form one reading path: what CPI measures, how the readings differ, why the surprise matters, and how that signal can reach Treasuries and equities.

What CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually at 8:30 a.m. ET. BLS began publishing separate city indexes in 1919, the national U.S. city average in 1921, and estimates extend back to 1913. Its basket covers food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services.

Headline/Core, MoM/YoY

Headline CPI covers all items; core CPI excludes food and energy. Monthly readings show the latest change, while annual readings compare prices with the same month a year earlier.

What is included?: Headline = all items · Core = excludes food and energy
Compared with when?: MoM = previous month · YoY = same month one year earlier

Markets react to the surprise

Markets usually compare the released value with consensus expectations, then inspect revisions and underlying details. A reading can slow from the previous month but still be hotter than expected—or rise and still be cooler than expected. Those are different comparisons.

The core comparison

ActualConsensusSurprise

Illustrative YoY examples · not historical samples

Inflation slowed, but was hotter than expected

Previous 3.0% → consensus 2.8% → actual 2.9%

Lower than before, but 0.1pp above consensus

Inflation rose, but was cooler than expected

Previous 2.7% → consensus 3.0% → actual 2.9%

Higher than before, but 0.1pp below consensus

How CPI can feed through to QQQ and SPY

In one line: a CPI surprise may change the expected path of rates, which may reprice short-end Treasuries and equity valuations. Start with that path, then use ZT to inspect the rate channel.

Start with the core path

01 · Data triggerCPI vs. consensus
Decide whether the headline and core MoM readings were cooler, in line, hotter, or mixed versus expectations.
02 · The channel we trackExpected path of rates
The market reassesses whether rates may stay high for longer or whether pressure for tight policy may ease.
03 · Bond-market signalZT · short-end Treasury pricing
ZT is the trading code for 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures. This page uses its minute-level price to observe short-end Treasury repricing in the same event window.
04 · Equity reactionQQQ / SPY
Higher rates can weigh on the present value of future profits. Growth-heavy QQQ is often more rate-sensitive than broad-market SPY.

CPI surprise tells us whether the release was cooler or hotter than expected. ZT shows how short-end Treasuries repriced. QQQ and SPY show how equities reacted.

Why observe the bond market too?

QQQ/SPY show the final equity move, but not whether the market repriced through the short-rate channel. ZT provides an intermediate market signal for that question; it is not a third research target.

Direction guideZT prices and short-end yields usually move in opposite directions

ZT price risesShort-end Treasury yields usually fall

ZT price fallsShort-end Treasury yields usually rise

Why do rates and ZT usually move in opposite directions?

Markets expect the Fed to cut rates
Future short-end rates may fall
Existing fixed cash flows become more valuable
Traders buy Treasuries or ZT · ZT usually rises

When markets expect future short-end rates to fall, existing fixed cash flows become more valuable, so Treasury prices and ZT usually rise. If rates are expected to stay high for longer, the direction is usually reversed.

ZT price ticks are not yield basis points. This page uses ZT to observe direction, not to convert futures ticks into an exact cash yield move.

Four common ways to read a CPI release

These labels compare the release with consensus—not simply with the previous month. They describe common repricing paths, not forecasts.

01Cooler than expected
Headline and core MoM are both at or below consensus; at least one is lowerPressure for higher-for-longer rates may easeZT usually rises · short-end yields usually fallValuation pressure on QQQ/SPY may ease
02Hotter than expected
Headline and core MoM are both at or above consensus; at least one is higherRates may need to stay high for longerZT usually falls · short-end yields usually riseQQQ/SPY valuations may come under pressure
03In line
Actual CPI roughly matches consensusCore details, revisions, and positioning matter moreZT may show no clear directionThe equity reaction may be smaller or driven by other news
04Mixed
Headline and core surprises point in opposite directionsThe rate-path message is conflictedDo not assume a ZT directionQQQ/SPY need event-specific context

Next, the page tests each link separately: CPI versus consensus, ZT short-end repricing, and the QQQ/SPY reaction.

Chapter 2 · Historical test

Official CPI release study

Chapter 1 described a possible CPI-to-market path. This chapter asks the historical question: across 42 official releases, what actually appeared in the price data?

First, the 15-minute snapshot

The official-release sample looks very different from a broad inflation-news search. Across 42 release events, the median 15-minute return was QQQ +0.0445% and SPY +0.0399%, while QQQ's average absolute price move was 0.2836%. The middle 80% of QQQ reactions ranged from -0.2386% to +0.4958%. Forty-one regular releases enter the headline/core MoM surprise groups; the special 2025-12-18 release remains visible but is not forced into those buckets.

Research scope and primary sample

IncludedScheduled BLS CPI releases at 08:30 ET · one release date, one event-study sample

Context only

Broad inflation, Fed, oil, tariff, wage, and company-pricing headlines remain searchable context. They do not count as official CPI release samples.

6,564 broad inflation-news matches are available for context search and are not part of the official CPI release study

Complete history: n=42official releases · overall statistics and full history
Primary analysis sample: n=41comparable releases · used by Chapter 3 groups and Chapter 4 comparable scatters

Research method and data quality

Open for price anchors, source provenance, ZT construction, tick math, and sensitivity checks.

Sample contract: 42 official releases enter the reaction study. Forty-one regular releases have comparable headline/core MoM surprises; the 2025-12-18 special two-month release remains in the history but outside those buckets.
How price moves are calculated: T0 is 08:30:00 ET. P0 is the close of the one-minute bar [08:29, 08:30); P(t) is the close of bars ending at 08:31, 08:35, 08:45, 09:00, and 09:30. The price move is P(t) / P0 - 1. The 60-minute point is the final pre-open state and excludes the cash open. If any P0 or P(t) bar has no fresh trade, the latest observed price is used. Every affected point is one minute stale; two P0 asset anchors and two P15 asset endpoints are affected.
QQQ/SPY minute-price data: The 42 releases use the audited source periods below. Both inputs are trade-based one-minute OHLCV bars covering 04:00–20:00 ET, including premarket trading. Provider timestamps mark bar starts; this study selects and labels bars by their ending minute.
Alpaca · SIP2023-01-01–2024-12-31 · 24 releases
market coverage: consolidated U.S. equities trades · adjustment: raw prices
Massive · U.S. equities aggregate bars2025-01-01–2026-06-25 · 17 releases
market coverage: provider consolidated U.S. equities aggregates · adjustment: split-adjusted prices
Alpaca · SIP2026-06-26–present · 1 releases
market coverage: consolidated U.S. equities trades · adjustment: raw prices
No-trade handlingWhen a selected minute has no fresh trade bar, the latest observed price is carried for at most one minute; QQQ and SPY endpoint staleness is recorded separately.
Actual and consensus: Actual values use the archived BLS as-released vintage. Consensus comes from the cited historical report, not BLS. Source title, article time, retained-source count, and snapshot time are disclosed when recorded; missing metadata is labeled rather than inferred.
P0 quality audit: 40 releases have both QQQ/SPY P0 anchors directly observed; 39 of them are MoM-comparable. These counts document baseline-price quality and are not the primary analysis filter.
Price and event quality: QQQ and SPY quality is recorded separately for P0 and every selected P(t) endpoint. Attribution clarity only summarizes headline overlap from 08:15 to 08:45 ET and does not prove causality or identify every scheduled release.
Rate-bridge data method: ZT 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures prices are used to observe short-end Treasury repricing. ZT is not the cash 2-year Treasury yield, and this same-window comparison does not prove a causal transmission sequence.
Source and schemaDatabento · GLBX.MDP3 · ohlcv-1m · 08:20-09:40 ET
Contract selectionZT.v.0 is the continuous input symbol. Its mapping selects the most active expiry by previous-day volume and retains original, unadjusted prices. A raw contract is labeled only when metadata resolves a distinct expiry symbol.
Minute mappingZ0 is the close of [08:29, 08:30). Z1/Z5/Z15/Z30/Z60 are the closes of bars ending at 08:31, 08:35, 08:45, 09:00, and 09:30 ET. Every included release must contain all 80 unique one-minute bars in the 08:20–09:40 input window; missing or duplicate bars fail the build, and ZT prices are not carried across missing minutes.
Price-tick formulaΔ price ticks = (Zt − Z0) × 256. One price tick is 1/256 of a futures price point; it is not one yield basis point.

P0/P15 sensitivity · QQQ median 15-minute return

The strict sample excludes any release whose P0 or P15 endpoint used a latest-valid price. Every affected point is one minute stale; the main cooler/hotter direction remains unchanged.

Strict comparable P0/P15 sample · n=37

Cooler than expectedAll comparable · 18+0.38%P0 and P15 observed · 18+0.38%

In lineAll comparable · 9+0.02%P0 and P15 observed · 6+0.08%

Hotter than expectedAll comparable · 13-0.07%P0 and P15 observed · 12-0.09%

MixedAll comparable · 1P0 and P15 observed · 1One historical sample; distribution statistics are not calculated.

The overall directional median is close to neutral, but an aggregate result can hide differences across surprise groups. Chapter 3 therefore separates releases by headline/core MoM surprise.

Chapter 3 · Actual vs. consensus

How QQQ/SPY reacted when CPI ran cooler or hotter than expected

Headline and core MoM CPI are compared with historical reported consensus. These buckets use MoM surprise only; accompanying headlines may emphasize YoY or other details and do not determine the bucket.

Reaction window, synced with every chart in Chapter 3

CPI result	Samples	Headline/Core MoM surprise median	QQQ · 15m price move median	SPY · 15m price move median	QQQ-SPY relative return median	Grouping rule
Cooler	18	Headline-0.1ppCore-0.1pp	+0.38%up 77.8% (14)down 16.7% (3)near flat 5.6% (1)Middle 50% +0.04% – +0.45%	+0.24%up 77.8% (14)down 16.7% (3)near flat 5.6% (1)Middle 50% +0.02% – +0.36%	+2.5bp	Both MoM readings are at or below consensus; at least one is lower.
In line	9	Headline+0.0ppCore+0.0pp	+0.02%up 55.6% (5)down 44.4% (4)near flat 0.0% (0)Middle 50% -0.08% – +0.11%	-0.03%up 44.4% (4)down 55.6% (5)near flat 0.0% (0)Middle 50% -0.06% – +0.06%	+3.1bp	Both MoM readings equal consensus at one-decimal precision.
Hotter	13	Headline+0.1ppCore+0.1pp	-0.07%up 30.8% (4)down 61.5% (8)near flat 7.7% (1)Middle 50% -0.28% – +0.02%	-0.06%up 46.2% (6)down 53.8% (7)near flat 0.0% (0)Middle 50% -0.21% – +0.03%	-2.2bp	Both MoM readings are at or above consensus; at least one is higher.
Mixed	1	Headline+0.1ppCore-0.1pp	+0.07%Only one historical sample. Direction probabilities and distribution ranges are not calculated.	+0.07%Only one historical sample. Direction probabilities and distribution ranges are not calculated.	-0.3bp	Headline and core MoM surprises point in opposite directions.

Small samples are descriptive. The middle 50% range shows uncertainty without implying a forecast interval. Direction counts use near flat at ±0.01%. Path classification later uses a separate ±0.05% muted threshold.

Rate bridge · 15m

Did short-end Treasuries move in the common direction?

ZT 2-Year Treasury Note futures prices show how short-end Treasuries repriced in the same event window. A higher ZT price is generally consistent with lower short-end Treasury yields; a lower ZT price is generally consistent with higher yields. ZT price ticks are not yield basis points.

Cross-event Pearson correlation · 15m · n=42 · QQQ: 0.69
Cross-event Pearson correlation · 15m · n=42 · SPY: 0.72

Horizontal · ZT price ticks

0-tick referenceGroup medianMiddle 50%ZT upZT downZT near flat

Cooler18 releases

+24 price ticksMiddle 50% +9 – +44

In line9 releases

-1 price tickMiddle 50% -14 – +24

Hotter13 releases

-14 price ticksMiddle 50% -44 – +10

Mixed1 release

+28 price ticksOne release; no distribution range.

Directional alignment by CPI surprise

ZT moving beyond the threshold in the common price direction counts as aligned; moves inside the threshold are near flat. This is a historical description, not proof of causality. Threshold ±1 price tick.

Cooler · ZT price rose88.9%

16/18 aligned · 1 near flat · 1 opposite

Hotter · ZT price fell61.5%

8/13 aligned · 0 near flat · 5 opposite

Current-window directional alignment: Cooler 88.9% · Hotter 61.5%.

ZT repricing versus QQQ/SPY reaction

Points toward the upper right combine a higher ZT price with a higher ETF price; points toward the lower left combine declines in both.

Reaction window, synced with every chart in Chapter 3

ZT repricing versus QQQ reaction

updownnear flat

Vertical · post-release price move

+1.30%-2.06%-109+109

ZT price down · consistent with higher short-end Treasury yieldsHorizontal · ZT price ticksZT price up · consistent with lower short-end Treasury yields

ZT repricing versus SPY reaction

updownnear flat

Vertical · post-release price move

+1.30%-2.06%-109+109

ZT price down · consistent with higher short-end Treasury yieldsHorizontal · ZT price ticksZT price up · consistent with lower short-end Treasury yields

Robustness checks

Pearson measures linear co-movement; its 95% confidence interval uses the Fisher z transform on the unrounded correlation. Spearman uses ranks. The remaining rows rerun Pearson after removing the largest absolute ZT move and provider-degraded dates. The threshold table checks whether the cooler-versus-hotter ordering depends on the near-flat cutoff.

15m	QQQ	SPY	QQQ−SPY
Pearsonn=42	0.6995% CI 0.49–0.82	0.7295% CI 0.53–0.84	0.2895% CI -0.02–0.54
Spearman rankn=42	0.52	0.57	0.27
Pearson without largest \|ZT\| eventn=41	0.56	0.62	0.20
Pearson without provider-degraded datesn=41	0.69	0.72	0.28

Excluded tail event · 2024-04-10, ZT -101 price ticks (largest absolute ZT move).

Excluded degraded dates · 2026-04-10.

Alignment after exclusion · Cooler 94.1% (16/17) · Hotter 61.5% (8/13).

Excluding the degraded date leaves the main QQQ/SPY and relative-return correlations nearly unchanged.

ZT aligned more closely with the shared QQQ/SPY direction than with QQQ−SPY relative performance in this window.

Near-flat threshold sensitivity

Near-flat threshold	Cooler alignment	Hotter alignment
±1 price tick	88.9%16/18	61.5%8/13
±4 price ticks	88.9%16/18	61.5%8/13
±8 price ticks	77.8%14/18	53.8%7/13

The exact rates change with the cutoff; compare the full threshold range before treating the cooler-versus-hotter gap as robust.

Sample and data quality · 42 ZT events enter the correlations · special release included: 2025-12-18 · Databento dataset condition degraded: 2026-04-10 (last modified 2026-05-21; 80 one-minute bars present; included in primary statistics)

Chapter 4 · Event distribution · 15m

Every dot is one official CPI release

The QQQ and SPY scatter plots each keep all 41 comparable releases visible. The horizontal axis shows the selected ETF's post-release move; higher points have a larger combined headline/core surprise. Open a point to replay that date.

Reaction window

All QQQ/SPY percentages use the close of the final complete pre-release one-minute bar, [08:29, 08:30) ET, as the base and show the post-release price move for the selected window.

CPI surprise intensity versus QQQ reaction

Comparable MoM releases · n=41 · Horizontal axis: QQQ · 15m price move

0% referenceGroup medianQQQ middle 50% of movesQQQ upQQQ downQQQ near flat

Headline/Core equal-weight absolute surprisePage-defined measure: (|Headline surprise| + |Core surprise|) / 2

Cooler18 releases

In line9 releases

Hotter13 releases

Mixed1 release

CPI surprise intensity versus SPY reaction

Comparable MoM releases · n=41 · Horizontal axis: SPY · 15m price move

0% referenceGroup medianSPY middle 50% of movesSPY upSPY downSPY near flat

Headline/Core equal-weight absolute surprisePage-defined measure: (|Headline surprise| + |Core surprise|) / 2

Cooler18 releases

In line9 releases

Hotter13 releases

Mixed1 release

QQQAll official releases · n=42

up: 59.5% (25)
down: 35.7% (15)
near flat: 4.8% (2)

Median: +0.04%
Middle 50%: -0.06% – +0.38%
Average absolute price move: 0.28%
Middle 80%: -0.24% – +0.50%

SPYAll official releases · n=42

up: 59.5% (25)
down: 38.1% (16)
near flat: 2.4% (1)

Median: +0.04%
Middle 50%: -0.05% – +0.28%
Average absolute price move: 0.23%
Middle 80%: -0.21% – +0.41%

Where the CPI → ZT → equities path held or broke

These examples trace the CPI surprise, the ZT signal, and the selected ETF together. They show an analytical path, not a mechanical prediction rule.

Full directional alignment2024-04-10

Hotter → ZT and the selected ETF moved in the common direction

ZT -101 price ticks

QQQ -1.83% · SPY -1.72%

Open curve

Bond-market divergence2025-09-11

Hotter → ZT moved opposite the common direction

ZT +30 price ticks

QQQ -0.10% · SPY -0.08%

Open curve

Equity-market divergence2025-04-10

Cooler → ZT aligned, but the selected ETF moved opposite

ZT +22 price ticks

QQQ -0.14% · SPY -0.09%

ZT · short-end Treasury price proxy08:20-09:40 ET · 08:29 baseline · continuous symbol ZT.v.015m -41 price ticks

ZT price fell · consistent with higher short-end Treasury yields

15m pre-release move: QQQ -0.01%
60m pre-open move: QQQ -0.27%
Absolute 15m reaction rank: 17 / 42
Price anchor: Both anchors observed
Attribution clarity: Some overlap

Chapter 6 · Official release history

All official CPI release samples

Window comparison

How the release path changes from 1 to 60 minutes

Window	QQQ median post-release move	QQQ average absolute move	SPY median post-release move	SPY average absolute move	QQQ-SPY median relative return
1m	+0.0427%	0.2829%	+0.0301%	0.2329%	+0.4bp
5m	+0.0445%	0.2923%	+0.0138%	0.2196%	+0.9bp
15m	+0.0445%	0.2836%	+0.0399%	0.2316%	+1.0bp
30m	+0.0578%	0.2669%	+0.0638%	0.2250%	+1.6bp
60m · pre-open	+0.1176%	0.2848%	+0.0638%	0.2194%	+3.4bp

Reaction window

									Price anchor			Sources	Open curve
2026-07-14Cooler	Jun 2026	Actual -0.4%Cons. -0.1%Surprise -0.3pp	Actual 0.0%Cons. 0.2%Surprise -0.2pp	+0.45%	+0.36%	+8.9bp	+35 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	9 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2026-06-10Cooler	May 2026	Actual 0.5%Cons. 0.5%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.60%	+0.31%	+28.9bp	+9 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	4 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2026-05-12Hotter	Apr 2026	Actual 0.6%Cons. 0.6%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	+0.18%	+0.10%	+7.9bp	+10 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	21 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Clearer	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2026-04-10Cooler	Mar 2026	Actual 0.9%Cons. 1.0%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	-0.02%	-0.04%	+1.8bp	-4 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yieldsDatabento dataset condition degraded	37 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2026-03-11In line	Feb 2026	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.24%	-0.27%	+3.1bp	-8 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	19 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2026-02-13Cooler	Jan 2026	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.06%	+0.05%	+1.5bp	-1 price tickprice little changed	29 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2026-01-13Cooler	Dec 2025	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.00%	+0.00%	-0.4bp	+12 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	42 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2025-12-18Special	Nov 2025	2m change 0.2%	2m change 0.2%	+0.03%	-0.02%	+4.4bp	+5 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	36 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Some overlap	BLS actualNot applicable	Open curve
2025-10-24Cooler	Sep 2025	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.4%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.36%	+0.26%	+10.4bp	+26 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	16 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2025-09-11Hotter	Aug 2025	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.10%	-0.08%	-2.2bp	+30 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	24 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-08-12In line	Jul 2025	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.50%	+0.45%	+4.9bp	+24 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	6 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Clearer	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-07-15Cooler	Jun 2025	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.06%	+0.07%	-0.9bp	+6 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	31 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-06-11Cooler	May 2025	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.2%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.2pp	+0.46%	+0.36%	+9.0bp	+45 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	8 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2025-05-13Cooler	Apr 2025	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.03%	+0.01%	+1.8bp	+6 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	34 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Clearer	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-04-10Cooler	Mar 2025	Actual -0.1%Cons. 0.1%Surprise -0.2pp	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.2pp	-0.14%	-0.09%	-5.3bp	+22 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	22 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-03-12Cooler	Feb 2025	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.39%	+0.09%	+30.7bp	+10 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	12 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2025-02-12Hotter	Jan 2025	Actual 0.5%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.2pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	+0.06%	+0.03%	+3.1bp	-44 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	30 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2025-01-15Mixed	Dec 2024	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.07%	+0.07%	-0.3bp	+28 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	28 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-12-11In line	Nov 2024	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.03%	-0.03%	+0.4bp	+21 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	35 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mSPY latest valid 1m	Muted	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-11-13In line	Oct 2024	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.08%	-0.06%	-2.9bp	+31 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	26 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mQQQ latest valid 1m	Faded	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-10-10Hotter	Sep 2024	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.1%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	-0.39%	-0.21%	-17.8bp	+19 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	13 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2024-09-11Hotter	Aug 2024	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	-0.38%	-0.35%	-3.0bp	-55 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	14 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2024-08-14In line	Jul 2024	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.11%	+0.05%	+5.7bp	-14 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	23 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Clearer	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2024-07-11Cooler	Jun 2024	Actual -0.1%Cons. 0.1%Surprise -0.2pp	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.2%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.28%	+0.29%	-0.5bp	+56 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	18 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2024-06-12Cooler	May 2024	Actual 0.0%Cons. 0.1%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.47%	+0.54%	-6.5bp	+61 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	7 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2024-05-15Cooler	Apr 2024	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.4%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.44%	+0.40%	+3.2bp	+25 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	11 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-04-10Hotter	Mar 2024	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	-1.83%	-1.72%	-11.6bp	-101 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	1 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-03-12Hotter	Feb 2024	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	+0.36%	+0.33%	+3.6bp	+16 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	15 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2024-02-13Hotter	Jan 2024	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	-0.02%	+0.02%	-4.0bp	-67 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	40 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2024-01-11Hotter	Dec 2023	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	+0.00%	+0.01%	-0.8bp	-14 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	41 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-12-12Hotter	Nov 2023	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.0%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.02%	+0.06%	-3.8bp	-25 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	39 / 42	P0SPY latest valid 1mP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-11-14Cooler	Oct 2023	Actual 0.0%Cons. 0.1%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	-0.04%	-0.05%	+0.0bp	+76 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	33 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-10-12Hotter	Sep 2023	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.1pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.28%	-0.29%	+0.5bp	-41 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	17 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-09-13Hotter	Aug 2023	Actual 0.6%Cons. 0.6%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.1pp	-0.20%	-0.15%	-4.6bp	+7 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	20 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2023-08-10In line	Jul 2023	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.2%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.02%	-0.18%	+20.1bp	-28 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	38 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Muted	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-07-12Cooler	Jun 2023	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.2%Cons. 0.3%Surprise -0.1pp	+0.52%	+0.41%	+10.2bp	+40 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	5 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportCross-checked public sources	Open curve
2023-06-13Cooler	May 2023	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.2%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.44%	+0.23%	+21.4bp	+19 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	10 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Clearer	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-05-10In line	Apr 2023	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.92%	+0.79%	+12.9bp	+50 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	3 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actualRelease-time primary metrics	Open curve
2023-04-12Cooler	Mar 2023	Actual 0.1%Cons. 0.2%Surprise -0.1pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	+1.07%	+0.73%	+33.4bp	+69 price ticksconsistent with lower short-end Treasury yields	2 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Faded	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-03-14Hotter	Feb 2023	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.5%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.1pp	-0.07%	-0.06%	-1.0bp	-6 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	27 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Some overlap	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-02-14In line	Jan 2023	Actual 0.5%Cons. 0.5%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.4%Cons. 0.4%Surprise +0.0pp	-0.10%	-0.03%	-6.9bp	-17 price ticksconsistent with higher short-end Treasury yields	25 / 42	P0QQQ latest valid 1mP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Follow-through	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve
2023-01-12In line	Dec 2022	Actual -0.1%Cons. -0.1%Surprise +0.0pp	Actual 0.3%Cons. 0.3%Surprise +0.0pp	+0.06%	+0.06%	-0.5bp	-1 price tickprice little changed	32 / 42	P0Both anchors observedP(t) · 15mBoth anchors observed	Reversal	Unable to assess	BLS actual Consensus reportSingle public report	Open curve

All QQQ/SPY percentages use 08:30 ET as the base and show the post-release price move for the selected window.

Chapter 7 · Data range and feedback

Coverage, update date, and corrections

This page is a historical event study, not investment advice. If you spot a wrong CPI value, a missing latest release, or an analysis issue, send feedback and include the release date if possible.

Release range: 2023-01-12 to 2026-07-14
Official releases: 42
Edited: Jul 19, 2026
Release calendar: www.bls.gov