Oil, inflation, and rates
Waller linked persistent high oil prices to core inflation, while traders assigned a 50% probability to a Fed rate increase this year and Treasury yields rose.
Mar 20, 2026 · QQQ/SPY Market Review · 41 headlines
QQQ opened 0.32% below the previous close and finished down 0.99%. SPY opened 0.49% lower and ended down 0.99%, leaving the pair almost even. Both reached session lows near 15:39 before recovering after hours. Waller said persistent high oil could feed core inflation, while traders priced a 50% chance of a Fed rate increase this year. Hormuz remained central to the risk backdrop, though later reports that the United States was considering de-escalation coincided with an after-hours rebound.
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Waller linked persistent high oil prices to core inflation, while traders assigned a 50% probability to a Fed rate increase this year and Treasury yields rose.
Iran declined to discuss Hormuz while under attack, U.S. contingency planning remained in focus, and a later de-escalation signal accompanied the after-hours recovery.
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