Official U.S. CPI releaseWed, Mar 11February 2026
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
March 2026
Replay March 2026 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 31
- Trading days
- 22
- News
- 1,468
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Mar 1, 2026 — Mar 31, 2026
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -4.96% and SPY at -5.21% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY session
Broad rally builds through the session, QQQ gains 3.92% with macro, Iran and AI news in focus
QQQ opened 1.09% higher and finished up 3.92%, while SPY moved from a 1.10% opening gain to a 3.21% advance. QQQ led by 0.71 percentage points. Mixed U.S. data, Iran and Hormuz developments, and major AI investment and product news formed the day's main context.
3 session driversMixed macro data6 key headlinesExpress News | Trump stated that the war with Iran will end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will 'open automatically.'
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.38%
SPY+2.89%
Weakest QQQ sessionWeakest SPY session
QQQ falls 2.05% and trails SPY amid inflation, Iran and AI investment headlines
QQQ opened 0.89% lower and finished down 2.05%, while SPY opened 0.73% lower and finished down 1.36%. QQQ trailed SPY by 0.68 percentage points. Both weakened through regular trading, reached their lows shortly after the close and recovered part of the decline after hours. Jobless claims were close to estimates, while Federal Reserve commentary kept inflation risk in view. Iran-related diplomacy and military reports remained prominent, and Meta outlined a $10 billion AI data center investment.
3 session driversLabor and inflation signals5 key headlinesIran Responds to U.S. 15-Point Peace Plan With Conditions
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.40%
SPY-1.79%
Largest QQQ–SPY divergence
QQQ leads gains as firm activity data meets rate and tariff signals
QQQ opened 0.54% higher and SPY 0.32% higher, then stood up 1.85% and 0.97% by 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.88 percentage point. February ADP employment rose 63,000 versus a 50,000 forecast, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI registered 56.1 versus 53.5 expected. Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that 100 basis points of cuts would be appropriate in 2026 and said easier policy should accommodate AI-related job transitions. Bessent expected a temporary 15% tariff increase this week. A Revolutionary Guards naval commander said Iran would target U.S. and UK vessels carrying cargo for Israel in the Gulf, keeping shipping risk in view.
4 session driversFirm activity and hiring6 key headlinesISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For February 56.1 Vs 53.5 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.49%
SPY+0.71%
Strongest intraday reboundBusiest news day
Oil-security strains and Fed uncertainty leave stocks lower after an intraday rebound
QQQ opened 1.95% lower and SPY 1.51% lower, then pared losses to end down 1.09% and 0.98%. Iraq cut crude production and reduced or halted exports after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The U.S. later announced political-risk insurance and guarantees for maritime and energy trade. Fed guidance remained mixed. Williams saw inflation at 2.5% this year and 2% in 2027, Schmid said services inflation was still too strong, and Kashkari said the Iran shock could alter the policy outlook. A report that the U.S. military was using Anthropic's Claude AI in the Iran war also linked technology more directly to the conflict.
4 session driversHormuz supply disruption6 key headlinesIraq Says Reduction In Crude Oil Production After Decreasing, Halting Exports Due To Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Will Not Affect Continued Operations In Refineries -Ministry Of Oil
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.06%
SPY-0.89%
Calmest session
QQQ finishes ahead of SPY as housing data, Iran risk and AI updates shape the session
QQQ finished 0.47% above the previous close, while SPY gained 0.18%. QQQ matched its opening gain, but SPY eased from a 0.49% opening advance, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.29 percentage points. February pending home sales rose 1.8% against an expected 0.6% decline. A BofA survey showed geopolitical and inflation risk displacing AI-bubble concerns, and Israel said Iran's security chief Ali Larijani had been killed. Nvidia's trillion-dollar revenue outlook and OpenAI's smaller-model launch kept AI in focus.
3 session driversRelative performance and housing data5 key headlinesUSA Pending Home Sales (MoM) For February 1.8% Vs -0.6% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.50%
SPY+0.25%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01Google
Geopolitics
526 related news items · 31 review days
25.8%+17.2 pp vs prior 3 months
02AI
308 related news items · 28 review days
15.1%-2.1 pp vs prior 3 months
03Oil
269 related news items · 28 review days
13.2%+7.4 pp vs prior 3 months
04Semiconductors
154 related news items · 27 review days
7.6%-2.2 pp vs prior 3 months
05China
82 related news items · 25 review days
4.0%-1.8 pp vs prior 3 months
0675 related news items · 25 review days
3.7%-1.5 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
Iran escalation dominates Sunday as technology and macro risks build
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Iran-related reports included an oil-tanker attack, U.S. military casualties, attacks on Gulf military bases, and a rare two-day suspension of UAE stock trading. A warning that strikes could continue for four to five weeks kept the duration of the conflict in focus. Technology risks also surfaced as an AWS facility in the UAE suffered a fire and power outage, while OpenAI signaled willingness to take classified Pentagon work. Germany's January retail sales fell 0.9% from the prior month against a flat estimate.
3 session driversIran escalation6 key headlinesIran's Press TV Reported Earlier: Iran Attacked An Oil Tanker In The Gulf Of Oman That Was Intended To Pass Through The Strait Of Hormuz Despite Warnings. All 20 Crew Members Were…
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Stocks recover most of a sharp opening drop amid energy and factory signals
QQQ opened down 1.16% and SPY opened down 0.90%, then both recovered most of those losses to finish lower by 0.24% and 0.23%. Regional conflict remained a central risk as QatarEnergy stopped LNG production after attacks on operating facilities and Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was closed to passing vessels. U.S. factory data offered a firmer counterpoint. The February ISM manufacturing PMI reached 52.4, while its prices index rose to 70.5 against a 60.6 estimate. Technology and policy developments included NVIDIA's $2 billion investments in each of two optical suppliers, a court decision advancing the tariff-refund dispute, and overnight drone attacks on AWS data centers in the Middle East.
4 session driversRegional energy risk6 key headlinesQatarenergy Announced Stoppage Of LNG Production Due To Military Attacks On Operating Facilities In Ras Laffan Industrial City And Mesaieed Industrial City -Reuters
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.13%
SPY+0.06%
Oil-security strains and Fed uncertainty leave stocks lower after an intraday rebound
QQQ opened 1.95% lower and SPY 1.51% lower, then pared losses to end down 1.09% and 0.98%. Iraq cut crude production and reduced or halted exports after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The U.S. later announced political-risk insurance and guarantees for maritime and energy trade. Fed guidance remained mixed. Williams saw inflation at 2.5% this year and 2% in 2027, Schmid said services inflation was still too strong, and Kashkari said the Iran shock could alter the policy outlook. A report that the U.S. military was using Anthropic's Claude AI in the Iran war also linked technology more directly to the conflict.
4 session driversHormuz supply disruption6 key headlinesIraq Says Reduction In Crude Oil Production After Decreasing, Halting Exports Due To Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Will Not Affect Continued Operations In Refineries -Ministry Of Oil
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.06%
SPY-0.89%
QQQ leads gains as firm activity data meets rate and tariff signals
QQQ opened 0.54% higher and SPY 0.32% higher, then stood up 1.85% and 0.97% by 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.88 percentage point. February ADP employment rose 63,000 versus a 50,000 forecast, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI registered 56.1 versus 53.5 expected. Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that 100 basis points of cuts would be appropriate in 2026 and said easier policy should accommodate AI-related job transitions. Bessent expected a temporary 15% tariff increase this week. A Revolutionary Guards naval commander said Iran would target U.S. and UK vessels carrying cargo for Israel in the Gulf, keeping shipping risk in view.
4 session driversFirm activity and hiring6 key headlinesISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For February 56.1 Vs 53.5 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.49%
SPY+0.71%
QQQ edges lower while SPY lags as chip controls and tariff disputes meet firm labor data
QQQ opened 0.25% lower and SPY 0.20% lower, then stood down 0.20% and 0.44% by 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.24 percentage point. Weekly initial jobless claims were 213,000 versus 215,000 expected, while fourth-quarter nonfarm productivity rose 2.8% versus a 1.9% estimate. The United States planned to extend AI-chip export licensing globally for companies including NVIDIA and AMD. Toyota planned to cut output of Middle East-bound vehicles by nearly 40,000 for two months amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Twenty-four states planned to challenge the new 10% global tariff, while the Federal Reserve ended a 2018 Wells Fargo consent order.
4 session driversFirm labor and productivity data6 key headlinesExpress News | US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 213000 Vs 215000 Forecast, Prior 213000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.30%
SPY-0.54%
Weak payrolls and Hormuz strains deepen declines, with QQQ trailing SPY
QQQ opened 0.69% lower and SPY opened 0.49% lower. By 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, they were down 1.66% and 1.47%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.19 percentage point. February payrolls fell by 92,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 69,000. Energy and shipping strains included a tanker attack, Maersk service suspensions, a Kuwaiti production cut, and Hormuz passage restrictions. The Commerce Department said it would not revive the AI diffusion rule, while Samsung reportedly planned another 100% NAND price increase. Fed officials highlighted data dependence and oil, employment, and stagflation risks.
4 session driversWeak labor and demand data6 key headlinesU.S. February payrolls fell by 92,000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.49%
SPY-1.30%
Saudi basing warning shares Saturday with Apple and memory-sector shifts
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Gulf security remained in focus as Trump said Iran had apologized and stopped firing at regional targets, while Saudi Arabia reportedly warned that further attacks on energy facilities could open its bases to U.S. forces. Technology updates included Bank of America's checks showing limited Middle East disruption across memory suppliers, Apple's discontinuation of 15 products after launching 10 devices, and Amazon's request that the FCC reject SpaceX's proposal for one million satellites.
3 session driversGulf security signals5 key headlinesTrump Says Iran Apologized to Neighbors and Agreed to Stop Firing
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Iran war and oil above $100 frame Sunday alongside China price data
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Iran remained central as reports covered buried uranium access, Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as leader and Trump's stance on the conflict. Nearly closed shipping lanes, full storage tanks, idle tankers and producer cuts accompanied oil above $110 per barrel. Later releases showed China's consumer prices down 0.9% from a year earlier and producer prices up 1.3%, while Nvidia expanded OpenAI capacity on AWS alongside a confirmed $30 billion investment.
3 session driversIran conflict and leadership6 key headlinesTrump Says Oil Price Spike Is 'A Very Small Price To Pay' As Iran War Sends Crude Above $100 And Dow Futures Plunge Over 900 Points
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tech strength reverses a weak open while energy policy stays in focus
QQQ and SPY opened 0.92% and 0.89% below their previous closes, then reversed higher. They ended regular trading up 1.33% and 0.88%. An after-hours pullback left final gains of 0.89% and 0.44%, with QQQ ahead by 0.45 percentage points. The G7 said it was ready to support energy supply, while later U.S. statements covered the Iran timetable, Hormuz, oil-sanctions waivers and naval escorts. Tech updates included Apple's higher foldable-iPhone supply target, Microsoft's $99 E7 suite and Anthropic's lawsuit. Japan's annualized fourth-quarter GDP later came in at 1.3% versus 0.2% expected, while U.K. retail sales missed estimates.
3 session driversWeak open to tech-led recovery6 key headlines'Anthropic Sues U.S. Government After Being Designated 'Supply Chain Risk' For Refusing To Remove Guardrails' - Reuters
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.33%
SPY+0.88%
Oil-security headlines and AI deals leave QQQ slightly higher while SPY is nearly flat
QQQ opened unchanged and SPY opened 0.09% below its previous close. Both climbed to midday highs of 0.90% and 0.75%, then retreated. A modest after-hours recovery left QQQ up 0.12% and SPY down 0.05%, with QQQ ahead by 0.17 percentage points. Energy-security updates included possible conditional U.S.-Iran talks, G7 planning for oil-stockpile releases and a U.S. warning over possible Hormuz mines. AI and semiconductor news included Nvidia's investment and Vera Rubin deployment agreement with Thinking Machines, Apple's expanded India production, and new memory-sector partnerships.
2 session driversIran and energy-security signals5 key headlines'G-7 Tasks IEA With Preparing Scenarios For Oil-Stockpile Release' - Bloomberg
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.02%
SPY-0.18%
After-hours weakness leaves QQQ and SPY lower as CPI and oil-reserve action share focus
QQQ opened 0.20% above its previous close and SPY opened 0.05% higher. QQQ reached a 0.65% gain shortly after the open, but both ETFs faded and finished regular trading near or below their previous closes. After-hours declines left QQQ down 0.79% and SPY down 0.88%, with QQQ ahead by 0.09 percentage points. February CPI rose 2.4% from a year earlier and 0.3% from January. Energy updates included the IEA's unanimous 400 million-barrel emergency release and continued Middle East supply risks. AI and semiconductor news included Nvidia's $2 billion Nebius investment and Meta's plan for four in-house AI chips, while the United States opened Section 301 investigations into 16 economies.
3 session driversInflation and energy supply5 key headlinesFull text of the US February CPI report: Prices for housing, healthcare, and airfares increased, while prices for used cars and telecommunications declined.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.01%
SPY-0.12%
QQQ falls 1.81% and SPY drops 1.46% as oil-shipping risk and rate expectations intensify
QQQ opened 0.81% below its previous close and finished down 1.81%. SPY opened 0.78% lower and finished down 1.46%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.35 percentage points. Initial jobless claims were 213,000, below the 215,000 forecast and the prior 214,000. Iran-related shipping updates included reports of possible mining in the Strait of Hormuz and a later statement that vessels could still pass with Iranian naval coordination. A Reuters poll still pointed to a June Federal Reserve rate cut despite war-related inflation risks. Company news included Meta's Persian Gulf cable suspension and ByteDance's reported access to Nvidia's top AI chips.
3 session driversOil shipping and geopolitical risk6 key headlinesExpress News | The spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that many vessels can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with Iran's navy. Accord…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.70%
SPY-1.52%
Opening gains reverse as growth and sentiment readings weaken, leaving QQQ down 0.64%
QQQ opened 0.43% above the prior close and finished down 0.64%, while SPY moved from a 0.48% opening gain to a 0.45% decline. SPY led by 0.19 percentage points. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised to 0.7% from 1.4%, while January core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 55.5 as gasoline-price concerns increased. China-U.S. trade consultations and further U.S. military deployments to the Middle East remained additional policy and geopolitical context.
4 session driversGrowth and inflation5 key headlinesExpress News | US Jan. Core PCE Price Index YoY +3.10% Vs +3.10% Forecast, Prior +3.00%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.60%
SPY-0.56%
QQQ and SPY stay flat over the weekend as Hormuz escalation, Tesla chips and Powell take focus
QQQ and SPY were unchanged during the weekend closure, so neither ETF led. The main news context came from plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, the rejection of an Iran ceasefire offer and a U.S. security warning in Iraq. Tesla's Terafab AI-chip launch plan and Powell's possible stay on the Federal Reserve Board through January 2028 added technology and central-bank governance context.
3 session driversMiddle East security5 key headlinesTrump says the U.S. will make the Strait of Hormuz open, safe and free
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Emergency oil flows and Hormuz talks shape Sunday before China data arrives
QQQ and SPY were unchanged during the Sunday market closure. The main context came from the IEA's plan for emergency oil to reach global markets and U.S. talks with seven countries on securing the Strait of Hormuz. China then reported 6.3% February industrial-production growth against a 5.3% estimate, while U.S.-China talks covered farm goods and managed trade. Malaysia's decision to declare its U.S. trade deal invalid added tariff-policy context.
4 session driversOil and Hormuz security6 key headlinesIEA Said Sunday, Oil From Emergency Reserves Will Soon Start Flowing To Global Markets
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ and SPY hold opening gains as mixed data, oil security and Nvidia news compete for attention
QQQ finished 1.09% above the previous close and SPY gained 0.98%, with most of the advance already present at the regular-session open. Trading then stayed comparatively steady. The New York manufacturing index missed its estimate, while U.S. industrial production rose and the housing index edged above expectations. Oil-supply coordination and fresh Iran threats kept Hormuz risk in focus. Nvidia's seven-chip production announcement added a technology theme, while QQQ ended 0.11 percentage points ahead of SPY.
2 session driversMixed U.S. data5 key headlinesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index For March -0.20 Vs 4.00 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.11%
SPY+1.01%
QQQ finishes ahead of SPY as housing data, Iran risk and AI updates shape the session
QQQ finished 0.47% above the previous close, while SPY gained 0.18%. QQQ matched its opening gain, but SPY eased from a 0.49% opening advance, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.29 percentage points. February pending home sales rose 1.8% against an expected 0.6% decline. A BofA survey showed geopolitical and inflation risk displacing AI-bubble concerns, and Israel said Iran's security chief Ali Larijani had been killed. Nvidia's trillion-dollar revenue outlook and OpenAI's smaller-model launch kept AI in focus.
3 session driversRelative performance and housing data5 key headlinesUSA Pending Home Sales (MoM) For February 1.8% Vs -0.6% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.50%
SPY+0.25%
QQQ and SPY fall about 1.5% amid hotter inflation, Fed projections and energy attacks
QQQ opened 0.30% below the previous close and finished down 1.51%. SPY opened 0.37% lower and ended down 1.47%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.04 percentage points. February PPI rose 3.4% from a year earlier and core PPI reached 3.9%. FOMC projections put end-2026 unemployment at 4.4% and PCE inflation at 2.7%. Iran's president confirmed the death of the intelligence minister in an Israeli attack, while Qatar said an Iranian missile caused significant damage at an LNG hub. Micron reported quarterly earnings and sales above estimates after the close.
3 session driversInflation and Fed outlook5 key headlinesInflation exceeds expectations across the board! US PPI for February rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core PPI at 3.9%, hitting a one-year high.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.41%
SPY-1.38%
QQQ and SPY nearly erase opening gaps while energy policy and housing data shift the backdrop
QQQ opened 0.91% below the previous close and finished down 0.13%. SPY opened 0.68% lower and ended down 0.05%, outperforming QQQ by 0.08 percentage points. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% for a sixth meeting. U.S. January new-home sales were 587,000 versus 722,000 expected. Energy headlines included possible relief for Iranian oil already at sea, damage to 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity, and Israel's decision to suspend strikes on Iranian energy facilities.
2 session driversEnergy policy and supply5 key headlinesU.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent Says U.S. Is Not Attacking Iran's Energy Infrastructure; Has Allowed Iranian Oil To Continue Out Of Gulf; May Unsanction Iranian Oil On Water In Co…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.32%
SPY-0.26%
QQQ and SPY fall nearly 1% as oil-driven rate repricing gives way to an after-hours rebound
QQQ opened 0.32% below the previous close and finished down 0.99%. SPY opened 0.49% lower and ended down 0.99%, leaving the pair almost even. Both reached session lows near 15:39 before recovering after hours. Waller said persistent high oil could feed core inflation, while traders priced a 50% chance of a Fed rate increase this year. Hormuz remained central to the risk backdrop, though later reports that the United States was considering de-escalation coincided with an after-hours rebound.
2 session driversOil, inflation, and rates5 key headlinesFed's Waller Says He Was Planning To Dissent On Fed Rate Hold Based On Jobs Reports, But Inflation Has Become More Of A Concern; Now Expects Labor Force Growth Near Zero; If Oil S…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.84%
SPY-1.71%
Natanz strike and Hormuz ultimatum dominate Saturday as TERAFAB plan emerges
U.S. markets were closed on Saturday, leaving no tradable ETF reaction. The United States and Israel struck Iran's Natanz enrichment complex, while Trump later gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Iran threatened energy and desalination infrastructure in response to possible power-plant strikes. Powell emphasized that independence and integrity are inseparable amid White House rate pressure. In technology, Musk announced quantified capacity targets for the TERAFAB chip-manufacturing plan.
3 session driversIran and Hormuz escalation5 key headlinesAs US-Israel Campaign Intensifies With Iran's Nuclear Facility Strike, Global Energy Markets Face Critical Juncture, Israel Vows to Intensify Attack
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Iran broadens energy threats as Hormuz access narrows and Chinese refiners assess oil deals
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, leaving no tradable ETF reaction. Iran warned that attacks on its energy facilities or power grid could trigger a full Hormuz closure and retaliation against energy facilities in Gulf states. Separately, Chinese state refiners explored Iranian oil deals after a U.S. waiver. Technology updates included Zuckerberg's work on a CEO AI agent and a reported 23% rise in China iPhone sales during the first 9 weeks.
4 session driversIran energy and Hormuz risk5 key headlinesIran's Revolutionary Guards Warn Strait Of Hormuz Will Be Completely Closed If Trump Targets Iran Energy Facilities -Reuters
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Early Iran diplomacy rally fades to a 1.3% gain as Fed and recession signals return to focus
QQQ ended 1.28% above the prior close and SPY gained 1.26%, after both opened about 1.5% higher and eased during the regular session. Reports of productive U.S.-Iran talks and a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure accompanied a sharp premarket repricing, while later Iran and oil headlines kept the geopolitical backdrop unsettled. Fed policymaker Stephen Miran still projected four rate cuts but cited a softer labor market and worse two-sided risks. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 30%. Overnight reports of attacks on Iranian energy sites and disruption to AWS's Bahrain region extended the energy and infrastructure risk into the next morning.
3 session driversIran diplomacy and energy risk5 key headlinesTrump Announced US And Iran Held Very Good And Productive Talks Toward Complete Resolution Of Middle East Hostilities, Orders 5 Day Pause On Military Strikes Against Iranian Energ…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.05%
SPY+1.05%
QQQ and SPY recover opening losses as mixed growth data, Iran reports and AI funding reshape the day
QQQ finished 0.11% above the prior close and SPY gained 0.33%, after opening 0.55% and 0.62% lower. Fourth-quarter nonfarm productivity rose 1.8%, below the 2.8% estimate. March composite PMI then slipped to 51.4 as business activity growth reached an 11-month low, manufacturing strengthened, services slowed and price pressure returned. Middle East reports pulled in opposite directions, from a planned deployment of 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to a reported mechanism for a one-month ceasefire. OpenAI's plan to raise roughly $10 billion added a separate AI-financing theme. SPY outperformed QQQ by 0.22 percentage points at the close.
3 session driversMixed U.S. growth signals5 key headlinesThe U.S. Composite PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.4 in March, with manufacturing expansion accelerating while service sector growth slowed.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.69%
SPY-0.33%
QQQ and SPY trim strong opening gains as oil and inflation risks meet chip and AI news
QQQ opened 0.88% above the prior close and finished up 0.44%, while SPY opened 0.84% higher and ended up 0.34%. February import and export prices both exceeded estimates. Iraqi officials said southern oil output fell about 80% to roughly 800,000 barrels a day as storage filled and Hormuz exports were blocked. Iran also said some vessels could transit the strait, while COSCO resumed selected bookings. SK Hynix's proposed U.S. listing and a new White House technology advisory group added semiconductor and AI context. QQQ outperformed SPY by 0.10 percentage points at the close.
3 session driversOil and Hormuz risks5 key headlines'Three Iraqi Energy Officials Say Iraq's Oil Output Plunges Further As Storage Fills And Hormuz Exports Are Blocked By Conflict; Iraq Oil Output From Southern Oilfields Falls Abou…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.64%
SPY+0.55%
QQQ falls 2.05% and trails SPY amid inflation, Iran and AI investment headlines
QQQ opened 0.89% lower and finished down 2.05%, while SPY opened 0.73% lower and finished down 1.36%. QQQ trailed SPY by 0.68 percentage points. Both weakened through regular trading, reached their lows shortly after the close and recovered part of the decline after hours. Jobless claims were close to estimates, while Federal Reserve commentary kept inflation risk in view. Iran-related diplomacy and military reports remained prominent, and Meta outlined a $10 billion AI data center investment.
3 session driversLabor and inflation signals5 key headlinesIran Responds to U.S. 15-Point Peace Plan With Conditions
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.40%
SPY-1.79%
Weak sentiment and Fed caution accompany losses into after-hours as QQQ trails SPY by half a point
QQQ fell 2.38% and SPY fell 1.88%, with SPY ahead by 0.50 percentage points. Iran and Hormuz escalation, weak Michigan sentiment, Fed inflation caution and large AI financing supplied the main market context.
3 session driversIran and energy risk6 key headlinesFed's Barkin Says It Is Prudent to Hold Rates Steady and Await More Clarity
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.97%
SPY-1.71%
Iran ground-operation reports and constrained Hormuz traffic shape a closed-market Saturday
U.S. markets were closed. Attention centered on reports of further Iran conflict escalation, sparse traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, damage at a major aluminum smelter and Tesla's planned end of Model S and Model X production.
3 session driversIran conflict escalation5 key headlinesU.S. Defense Department Is Preparing For A Multiweek Ground Operation In Iran
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Fed hawkish signals, Iran reports and oil-route developments frame a closed-market Sunday
U.S. markets were closed. Attention centered on hawkish signals from previously dovish Fed officials, reports about possible Iran ground operations and diplomacy, Saudi pipeline capacity and a bipartisan proposal to restrict Chinese robots in U.S. government use.
4 session driversFed rate path6 key headlinesPreviously Dovish Fed Officials Turn Hawkish, Signaling Rate Cuts May Be Over While A Hike Remains Unlikely
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Positive opens reverse into losses, with QQQ falling 1.16% as energy and rate risks stay in view
QQQ opened 0.84% higher but ended down 1.16%, while SPY moved from a 0.94% opening gain to a 0.55% loss and led by 0.61 percentage points. Iran and Hormuz policy, oil-supply coordination, Fed inflation commentary and overnight global data formed the main context.
2 session driversHormuz and energy policy5 key headlinesDefying US threats, Iran's parliament approves the Hormuz tolling bill.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.76%
SPY-0.33%
Broad rally builds through the session, QQQ gains 3.92% with macro, Iran and AI news in focus
QQQ opened 1.09% higher and finished up 3.92%, while SPY moved from a 1.10% opening gain to a 3.21% advance. QQQ led by 0.71 percentage points. Mixed U.S. data, Iran and Hormuz developments, and major AI investment and product news formed the day's main context.
3 session driversMixed macro data6 key headlinesExpress News | Trump stated that the war with Iran will end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will 'open automatically.'
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.38%
SPY+2.89%