February 2026
Replay February 2026 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 28
- Trading days
- 19
- News
- 1,014
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -2.32% and SPY at -0.83% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
QQQ edges ahead in a roughly 2% rebound amid macro and trade updates
QQQ opened 0.77% above the previous close and ended overnight trading 2.10% higher. SPY opened 0.59% higher and finished up 1.92%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.18 percentage points. February Michigan consumer sentiment was 57.3 versus a 55.0 estimate. Fed officials Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson discussed risks on both sides of the mandate, labor-market resilience, and tariff-related inflation that they expected to ease. The White House also announced U.S.-India trade terms covering ICT import licensing and intended purchases of $500 billion in U.S. energy products and other goods. Both ETFs advanced through the main session, added modestly after the close, and were nearly steady overnight.
Labor data and tech regulation accompany a 2.15% QQQ slide, with SPY ahead
QQQ and SPY opened 0.25% and 0.28% higher, then finished 2.15% and 1.63% lower. SPY led by 0.52 percentage points as labor and housing data, technology regulation, and AI and semiconductor updates framed a broad retreat that extended after the regular session.
Tech weakness widens the QQQ-SPY gap amid mixed data and policy risk
QQQ opened down 0.20% and finished 1.33% lower, while SPY moved from a 0.15% opening gain to a 0.24% decline. SPY led by 1.09 percentage points. January ADP employment rose by 22,000, below expectations, while the S&P Global and ISM services readings came in above estimates at 52.7 and 53.8. A Trump-Xi call and renewed Iran warnings kept trade and geopolitical policy in view. After the close, Google reported 48% cloud-revenue growth to $17.7 billion and projected $175 billion to $185 billion of 2026 capital spending, extending the focus on AI infrastructure investment.
SPY erases its opening loss while QQQ ends 0.30% lower amid Fed and AI signals
QQQ opened 0.80% below the previous close and ended down 0.30%, while SPY improved from a 0.38% opening decline to essentially flat, leaving QQQ 0.31 percentage points behind. U.S. manufacturing data and Fed rate-path remarks shared the day with AI regulation, an Nvidia-Meta chip agreement and Iran-Hormuz risk.
Afternoon lows give way to a partial recovery as QQQ ends down 0.24% and trails SPY
QQQ and SPY opened 0.51% and 0.34% below their previous closes and reached session lows of 0.76% and 0.63% below those baselines around 14:21. Both recovered after the regular session and ended down 0.24% and 0.13%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.11 percentage points. Better-than-expected initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data, Iran tensions, private-credit redemption limits and fresh AI investment reports formed the main news backdrop.
Broad gains peak after NVIDIA results as QQQ finishes up 1.15% and 0.45 points ahead of SPY
QQQ and SPY opened 0.46% and 0.35% above their previous closes, then extended gains during the regular session. After-hours prices reached highs of 1.62% for QQQ and 0.99% for SPY following NVIDIA's results and guidance, before easing to final gains of 1.15% and 0.70%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.45 percentage points. Tariff developments, Fed policy and inflation remarks, a much larger-than-expected crude-inventory build, and NVIDIA's earnings and outlook formed the main context.
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
AI
248 related news items · 27 review days
Semiconductors
106 related news items · 26 review days
Geopolitics
158 related news items · 25 review days
Tesla
46 related news items · 25 review days
China
61 related news items · 22 review days
FOMC
101 related news items · 21 review days
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
AI investment plans and policy risks shape a quiet Sunday
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Nvidia said its previously discussed investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI was never a commitment, while Oracle planned to raise as much as $50 billion to expand AI cloud infrastructure. Debate over Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair and the start of a partial U.S. government shutdown kept policy risk in focus. Germany's December retail sales rose 0.1% from the prior month versus a 0.1% decline expected, and January manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1 from 47.0.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Factory rebound lifts tech as trade and AI deals reshape the day
QQQ reversed a 0.76% lower open to finish up 1.07%, while SPY moved from a 0.48% lower open to a 0.73% gain. QQQ led by 0.34 percentage points. January ISM manufacturing returned to expansion, and both indexes advanced in the following 15 minutes. A U.S.-India tariff agreement, Fed guidance, and large AI financing and consolidation plans shaped the rest of the day.
QQQ trails as AI disruption, Fed risks and Iran tensions crowd the session
QQQ moved from a 0.56% higher open to finish down 1.80%, while SPY went from a 0.26% gain at the open to a 0.95% decline. SPY led by 0.85 percentage points. AI-driven business disruption and semiconductor supply constraints framed the technology-heavy selloff, while Fed risk guidance and the downing of an Iranian drone added policy and geopolitical context. AMD results and a reported Nvidia investment in OpenAI extended the AI and chip focus after the close.
Tech weakness widens the QQQ-SPY gap amid mixed data and policy risk
QQQ opened down 0.20% and finished 1.33% lower, while SPY moved from a 0.15% opening gain to a 0.24% decline. SPY led by 1.09 percentage points. January ADP employment rose by 22,000, below expectations, while the S&P Global and ISM services readings came in above estimates at 52.7 and 53.8. A Trump-Xi call and renewed Iran warnings kept trade and geopolitical policy in view. After the close, Google reported 48% cloud-revenue growth to $17.7 billion and projected $175 billion to $185 billion of 2026 capital spending, extending the focus on AI infrastructure investment.
QQQ falls 2.39% as labor, Fed and Amazon signals frame a broad retreat
QQQ opened 0.81% below the previous close and finished the period down 2.39%. SPY opened 0.60% lower and ended down 1.79%, leading QQQ by 0.60 percentage points. Weekly initial jobless claims reached 231,000 versus a 212,000 forecast and a 209,000 prior reading. Fed officials Lisa Cook and Raphael Bostic both emphasized inflation risks and a cautious or moderately restrictive policy stance. After the close, Amazon reported 14% fourth-quarter revenue growth to $213.4 billion and projected about $200 billion of capital spending in 2026. QQQ and SPY both weakened further during after-hours trading before partially recovering overnight.
QQQ edges ahead in a roughly 2% rebound amid macro and trade updates
QQQ opened 0.77% above the previous close and ended overnight trading 2.10% higher. SPY opened 0.59% higher and finished up 1.92%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.18 percentage points. February Michigan consumer sentiment was 57.3 versus a 55.0 estimate. Fed officials Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson discussed risks on both sides of the mandate, labor-market resilience, and tariff-related inflation that they expected to ease. The White House also announced U.S.-India trade terms covering ICT import licensing and intended purchases of $500 billion in U.S. energy products and other goods. Both ETFs advanced through the main session, added modestly after the close, and were nearly steady overnight.
Apple's China rebound and AI chip plans lead Saturday's headlines
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Apple ended three consecutive years of sales declines in China as fourth-quarter revenue there rose 38% to $26 billion. Samsung's Texas chip plant received a temporary operating permit and planned to begin producing Tesla AI5 chips this year. Indian refiners also reduced Russian crude purchases as India and the United States advanced trade talks.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday focus turns to Fed policy and AI-chip supply
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged from Friday's close. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Fed was unlikely to shrink its balance sheet quickly even under chair nominee Kevin Warsh. AI-chip supply developments included Samsung's expected HBM4 deliveries to Nvidia, tight T-glass capacity, and a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar agreement between STMicroelectronics and AWS. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi's election victory and President Trump's endorsement accompanied a record Nikkei move above 57,000 and a weaker yen.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tech rebound leaves QQQ 0.77% higher amid policy and labor shifts
QQQ opened 0.10% below the previous close and finished the period 0.77% higher, while SPY moved from essentially flat at the open to a 0.45% gain. QQQ led by 0.32 percentage points. Semiconductor-policy headlines included Taiwan's rejection of a proposed 40% capacity shift and a later report on broad U.S. chip tariffs with TSMC-linked exemptions for major technology companies. Google secured long-term solar supply for its Texas data centers. Labor-force comments from Kevin Hassett, EU competition scrutiny of Meta, and Chinese bank guidance on U.S. Treasury exposure accompanied several intraday turns.
Late fade leaves QQQ 0.14 points behind SPY amid Fed and chip-policy signals
QQQ opened nearly flat and ended overnight trading down 0.18%. SPY finished down 0.04%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.14 percentage points. QQQ rose as much as 0.43% and SPY 0.34% before both faded to post-close lows, then partly recovered overnight. December retail and core retail sales were unchanged, below forecasts of 0.4% and 0.3% growth. Fed officials discussed holding rates, persistent inflation and financial-stability risks. Technology and trade news covered H200 license terms, strong U.S. AI-chip demand and a U.S.-India agreement spanning more than $500 billion of U.S. products. U.S.-Iran tensions and Venezuelan oil developments added geopolitical context.
Intraday reversal ends with QQQ 0.15 points ahead as jobs and fiscal data arrive
QQQ opened up 0.11% and ended overnight up 0.20%. SPY opened up 0.13% and finished up 0.05%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.15 percentage points. Both ETFs reached highs near 10:32 ET, with QQQ up 0.92% and SPY up 0.71%, then fell to losses of 0.57% and 0.37% before recovering. January payrolls rose 130,000 versus 70,000 expected, unemployment was 4.3% versus 4.4%, and wages rose 0.4% versus 0.3%. CBO projected a $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit and debt at 120% of GDP by 2036, while crude inventories rose 8.530 million barrels against an expected 0.2 million decline. AI investment, USMCA uncertainty, a possible U.S.-China truce extension and Middle East carrier preparations added context.
Labor data and tech regulation accompany a 2.15% QQQ slide, with SPY ahead
QQQ and SPY opened 0.25% and 0.28% higher, then finished 2.15% and 1.63% lower. SPY led by 0.52 percentage points as labor and housing data, technology regulation, and AI and semiconductor updates framed a broad retreat that extended after the regular session.
CPI rebound fades into a flat QQQ finish as SPY slips 0.05%
QQQ finished essentially flat while SPY fell 0.05%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.05 percentage points. A softer headline CPI reading, later Fed commentary, AI capital-market developments and an expanded Microsoft cloud and AI probe framed the day.
AI spending, monetization and financing shape Saturday's market news
U.S. markets were closed on Saturday. The day's news centered on Amazon's record AI investment plan, Alphabet's global bond financing, new monetization signals from Anthropic and OpenAI, and Morgan Stanley's shift toward active technology holdings.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news centers on Tesla chip hiring, Iran talks and a renewed media bid
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday. News centered on Tesla's South Korea AI-chip hiring, Iran's sanctions-for-nuclear-constraints signal, Paramount's revised Warner Bros. bid, a $190 million crypto political fund and Uber's seven-market European delivery expansion.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Apple's March event, AI scrutiny and overseas data mark Presidents' Day
U.S. markets were closed for Presidents' Day. News centered on Apple's March 4 event across three cities, scrutiny of Meta and SpaceX AI projects, Hapag-Lloyd's $4.2 billion agreement to acquire ZIM, and German inflation and U.K. labor data.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
SPY erases its opening loss while QQQ ends 0.30% lower amid Fed and AI signals
QQQ opened 0.80% below the previous close and ended down 0.30%, while SPY improved from a 0.38% opening decline to essentially flat, leaving QQQ 0.31 percentage points behind. U.S. manufacturing data and Fed rate-path remarks shared the day with AI regulation, an Nvidia-Meta chip agreement and Iran-Hormuz risk.
QQQ finishes 0.68% higher, 0.24 points ahead of SPY after an intraday swing
QQQ and SPY opened 0.47% and 0.39% above their previous closes, returned close to those baselines around 10:31, and later reached intraday highs of 1.38% and 0.91%. They finished up 0.68% and 0.44%, leaving QQQ 0.24 percentage points ahead. Mixed durable-goods and housing data, two-sided Fed guidance, AI commercial agreements and Iran risk formed the day's main news backdrop.
Afternoon lows give way to a partial recovery as QQQ ends down 0.24% and trails SPY
QQQ and SPY opened 0.51% and 0.34% below their previous closes and reached session lows of 0.76% and 0.63% below those baselines around 14:21. Both recovered after the regular session and ended down 0.24% and 0.13%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.11 percentage points. Better-than-expected initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data, Iran tensions, private-credit redemption limits and fresh AI investment reports formed the main news backdrop.
From a 10:31 trough to broad gains, QQQ ends 0.87% higher and leads SPY
QQQ and SPY opened essentially flat, then fell to 0.50% and 0.37% below their previous closes around 10:31. Both recovered through the session and ended 0.87% and 0.75% higher by 04:00 ET, with QQQ ahead by 0.13 percentage points. Weaker fourth-quarter GDP, firmer core PCE inflation, a rapidly changing tariff regime and fresh AI-chip investment news formed the main backdrop.
Tariff reset, Iran escalation and AI supply constraints dominate Saturday news
U.S. markets were closed on Saturday. News centered on a worldwide tariff increase from 10% to 15% and congressional opposition, a U.S. military buildup toward Iran, an Amazon report on AI-assisted firewall breaches, and memory-chip constraints on AI deployment.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news turns to tariff implementation, Iran leadership and AI hardware expansion
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday. News focused on the scheduled end of IEEPA tariff collections and official responses from China, the EU and India, Iran's promotion of Ali Larijani as a crisis manager, and AI hardware initiatives from Jio and an Australian NVIDIA infrastructure partnership.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff, labor and Iran risks frame a 1.03% QQQ decline and late partial rebound
QQQ and SPY opened below their previous closes, reached session lows shortly after noon and recovered part of those losses in after-hours and overnight trading. QQQ finished the period down 1.03%, versus a 0.92% decline for SPY. Tariff-policy uncertainty, Waller's labor-market and rate comments, weaker factory orders and Iran security headlines provided the day's main context, while a late DeepSeek report kept AI-chip restrictions in focus overnight.
QQQ rises 1.23% and leads SPY after a midmorning reversal amid Fed-AI and tariff news
QQQ and SPY opened modestly above their previous closes, briefly turned negative in midmorning trading and then climbed through the afternoon. QQQ finished up 1.23%, compared with a 0.81% gain for SPY, and held most of its lead overnight. Fed officials' discussion of AI, employment and inflation, shifting tariff implementation, stronger consumer confidence and new AI infrastructure commitments provided the main context.
Broad gains peak after NVIDIA results as QQQ finishes up 1.15% and 0.45 points ahead of SPY
QQQ and SPY opened 0.46% and 0.35% above their previous closes, then extended gains during the regular session. After-hours prices reached highs of 1.62% for QQQ and 0.99% for SPY following NVIDIA's results and guidance, before easing to final gains of 1.15% and 0.70%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.45 percentage points. Tariff developments, Fed policy and inflation remarks, a much larger-than-expected crude-inventory build, and NVIDIA's earnings and outlook formed the main context.
QQQ falls 1.59% after a morning selloff, with Big Tech financing and AI-policy headlines in focus
QQQ and SPY opened slightly above their previous closes and reached modest highs near 09:49 ET, then fell sharply through late morning. QQQ touched a low near 11:35 ET at about 2.02% below its previous close, while SPY was down about 1.24%. Both recovered part of the decline before weakening again after hours. By 04:00 ET the next morning, QQQ was down 1.59% and SPY 0.99%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.60 percentage points. Big Tech borrowing and infrastructure-cost reports, the Pentagon-Anthropic dispute over military AI safeguards, Fed and labor-market signals, and U.S.-Iran and China-related headlines provided the main context.
QQQ trims an early 1.10% slide to 0.63% as PPI, AI financing and Iran escalation frame the day
QQQ and SPY opened about 0.75% below their previous closes. Both reached lows near 10:44 ET, when QQQ was down 1.10% and SPY 1.09%, before recovering part of the decline. By 04:00 ET the next morning, QQQ was down 0.63% and SPY 0.81%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.18 percentage points. Hotter PPI data and a stronger Chicago PMI framed the early weakness. OpenAI financing and federal AI-policy actions dominated technology headlines, while the overnight shift from Iran negotiations to Israeli and U.S. strikes raised geopolitical risk and was followed by Iranian retaliation.
Iran conflict engulfs Gulf bases and Hormuz while Micron expands AI-chip capacity
U.S. markets were closed on Saturday. The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Iran and allied forces extended the confrontation to Gulf military sites, and reports later described the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials. Oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stopped before Iran announced the strait's closure, while OPEC+ considered a larger output increase. Away from the conflict, Micron opened a $2.75 billion assembly-and-test facility in India for AI-driven memory demand.
Market closed · No intraday price curve