Early Iran diplomacy rally fades to a 1.3% gain as Fed and recession signals return to focus

QQQ ended 1.28% above the prior close and SPY gained 1.26%, after both opened about 1.5% higher and eased during the regular session. Reports of productive U.S.-Iran talks and a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure accompanied a sharp premarket repricing, while later Iran and oil headlines kept the geopolitical backdrop unsettled. Fed policymaker Stephen Miran still projected four rate cuts but cited a softer labor market and worse two-sided risks. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 30%. Overnight reports of attacks on Iranian energy sites and disruption to AWS's Bahrain region extended the energy and infrastructure risk into the next morning.