Softer U.S. data
June ADP employment growth was 98,000 versus 118,000 expected and 122,000 previously. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.9 versus 55.7 expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 53.3 versus 53.8 expected.
Jul 1, 2026 · QQQ/SPY Market Review · 48 headlines
QQQ trails SPY as weak ADP and factory data meet Fed and trade-policy debate
By 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, QQQ was 1.65% below its prior close while SPY was down 0.25%, leaving QQQ behind by 1.40 percentage points. QQQ entered the regular session down 0.98% and lost another 0.55 percentage points during the session, while SPY improved from a 0.25% opening decline to a 0.14% decline at the end of regular trading. June ADP employment growth of 98,000 missed the 118,000 forecast, and both S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs came in below estimates. Fed Chair Warsh's remarks placed AI investment and inflation in the policy debate. The U.S. decision to replace a USMCA renewal with rolling reviews and negotiations added trade-policy context.
Published Updated
- QQQ
- -1.65%
- SPY
- -0.25%
- QQQ − SPY
- -1.40%
What shaped the session
Fed and AI-inflation debate
Fed Chair Warsh said it was up to the central bank to assess whether AI was inflationary and described the U.S. AI boom as prominent. Earlier, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that AI infrastructure demand could keep inflation elevated and require higher rates.
Trade-policy changes
The U.S. opted for rolling USMCA reviews and negotiations instead of renewal. Earlier, the European Union removed tariffs on U.S. industrial imports.
Key news
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