Official U.S. CPI releaseTue, Jul 14June 2026
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
July 2026
Replay July 2026 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 31
- Trading days
- 22
- News
- 1,116
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Jul 1, 2026 — Jul 31, 2026
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -6.58% and SPY at +0.01% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY sessionLargest QQQ–SPY divergence
QQQ rises through every active session as Microsoft and Meta widen megacap tech leadership
QQQ gained 4.01% and SPY 1.90%, leaving QQQ ahead by 2.11 percentage points. QQQ added 1.85 percentage points before the open, 1.39 during regular trading, and 0.74 after hours, while SPY gained less in each active session. Microsoft's 43% Azure growth and later Meta and Amazon AI-spending commitments kept technology prominent. GDP growth missed forecasts while core PCE matched expectations. Apple beat quarterly estimates, then issued softer growth guidance and tighter supply signals. Overnight updates added weak Hormuz traffic and an Iranian report of a drone strike on a U.S. base in Kuwait. Overnight prices were carried, so those later headlines do not have an observed ETF response.
4 session driversMegacap technology leadership6 key headlinesMicrosoft shares rise more than 10% premarket after Azure grows 43% and beats expectations
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.31%
SPY+1.68%
Weakest QQQ sessionWeakest SPY sessionStrongest intraday rebound
Fed-day selling leaves both ETFs lower before overnight strikes sharpen the energy-risk backdrop
At the 04:00 ET cutoff, QQQ fell 1.39% and SPY fell 1.14%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.25 percentage point. Most of the decline came in the regular session, while QQQ recovered 0.70 percentage point and SPY 0.40 after hours. The Fed held rates steady with three hike dissents, and its 2% inflation message kept policy in focus. Meta and Microsoft results led the technology-heavy after-hours cluster. Overnight, U.S. Central Command confirmed completed strikes on Iran, while QatarEnergy's U.S. LNG purchases showed a response to Hormuz disruption. The overnight chart segment contains carried prices, so it does not provide an observed ETF response to those updates.
3 session driversFed policy split6 key headlinesExpress News | The Federal Reserve held rates steady, with three officials dissenting in favor of a rate hike.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.07%
SPY-1.53%
Calmest session
QQQ closes 0.59% lower, with yields, AI spending and late earnings in focus
QQQ opened 0.65% lower and finished down 0.59%. SPY opened 0.19% lower and ended with a 0.21% decline, leaving SPY ahead by 0.37 percentage point. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remained above 5.00% for its longest stretch since 2007. Technology news included a 2-gigawatt AMD-Anthropic chip and investment agreement. After the close, Alphabet beat EPS and sales estimates, while Tesla missed the adjusted EPS estimate but beat the sales estimate. Energy and geopolitical context included a 2.010 million-barrel U.S. crude build against an expected 2.000 million-barrel draw and Trump's warning that the United States would respond with bombing if Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
3 session driversLong-term Treasury yields6 key headlinesTesla Q2 Adj. EPS $0.33 Misses $0.50 Estimate, Sales $28.236B Beat $25.706B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.53%
SPY-0.12%
Busiest news day
SPY rises while QQQ lags as chip stress and Middle East risk frame a split session
QQQ opened down 0.8767% and finished the complete window down 0.3284%, while SPY opened down 0.0352% and finished up 0.6062%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.9346 percentage points. Review the July consumer-confidence miss, semiconductor and concentrated-AI exposure updates, and the sequence of Iran, shipping and sanctions developments. These events provide market context and observed timing, not proof of causation.
3 session driversConsumer confidence5 key headlinesSK Hynix Earnings Miss Expectations; U.S.-Listed Shares Fall as Much as 9% After Hours
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.97%
SPY+0.23%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01
Geopolitics
353 related news items · 26 review days
18.8%-2.6 pp vs prior 3 months
02Semiconductors
239 related news items · 26 review days
12.7%+3.5 pp vs prior 3 months
03AI
286 related news items · 25 review days
15.2%-1.4 pp vs prior 3 months
04Oil
179 related news items · 25 review days
9.5%+1.3 pp vs prior 3 months
05Nvidia
86 related news items · 22 review days
4.6%+0.3 pp vs prior 3 months
06Apple
57 related news items · 22 review days
3.0%+0.9 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
QQQ trails SPY as weak ADP and factory data meet Fed and trade-policy debate
By 4:00 a.m. ET the next day, QQQ was 1.65% below its prior close while SPY was down 0.25%, leaving QQQ behind by 1.40 percentage points. QQQ entered the regular session down 0.98% and lost another 0.55 percentage points during the session, while SPY improved from a 0.25% opening decline to a 0.14% decline at the end of regular trading. June ADP employment growth of 98,000 missed the 118,000 forecast, and both S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs came in below estimates. Fed Chair Warsh's remarks placed AI investment and inflation in the policy debate. The U.S. decision to replace a USMCA renewal with rolling reviews and negotiations added trade-policy context.
3 session driversSofter U.S. data5 key headlinesWarsh Says Central Banks Must Judge AI's Inflation Impact as U.S. Boom Leads
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.53%
SPY-0.14%
QQQ trails nearly flat SPY as payrolls miss forecasts and technology plans take focus
QQQ finished 1.51% below its prior close, while SPY was essentially flat, leaving SPY ahead by 1.50 percentage points. QQQ opened slightly higher and weakened most sharply during regular trading, then recovered modestly after hours. June payroll growth of 57,000 missed the 110,000 forecast, and Fed-policy remarks remained in view. Taiwan's chip-hub message and Microsoft's $2.5 billion enterprise AI deployment plan supplied technology context as QQQ lagged.
3 session driversLabor data5 key headlinesTaiwan Says No US Chip Push Can Match Taiwan Semiconductor's Home Advantage
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.71%
SPY-0.13%
Independence Day closure shifts attention to AI chips, fund flows and energy scrutiny
U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day, so QQQ and SPY carried their July 2 closing levels without a trading move. The day's context centered on a reported $6.5 billion Meta-Samsung AI-chip agreement, a $17.2 billion weekly outflow from U.S. equity funds, and federal pressure on states to investigate elevated gasoline prices.
3 session driversAI-chip investment5 key headlinesAfter Tesla, Samsung Eyes Meta Platforms for $6.5 Billion AI Chip Agreement: Report
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ and SPY stay flat with markets closed as technology investment and geopolitics dominate
QQQ and SPY remained unchanged at their July 2 closing levels while U.S. markets were closed. Record data-center lease commitments, Micron's Japan expansion and rising clean-energy contract costs framed the technology capital cycle, while France's naval deployment near Hormuz and a Trump-Putin call kept geopolitical developments in focus.
2 session driversTechnology capital cycle6 key headlinesData Center Leases Top $850 Billion as Meta, Microsoft and Oracle Lead Record AI Infrastructure Spending
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Closed Sunday keeps QQQ and SPY unchanged while AI hardware and oil supply draw focus
QQQ and SPY remained unchanged at their July 2 closing levels during the Sunday market closure. Foxconn's revenue growth, Nvidia rack delays, Samsung's profit outlook and SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut framed a mixed AI hardware backdrop, while OPEC+'s August output increase and unresolved Hormuz shipping risk kept oil supply in focus.
3 session driversAI hardware supply chain6 key headlinesKey Nvidia Supplier Foxconn Posts 40% Q2 Revenue Jump on AI Server Demand
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ closes 1.09% higher and leads SPY amid services data and technology updates
QQQ ended 1.09% above its prior close and SPY finished 0.79% higher, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.30 percentage points. Both opened higher and added ground during regular trading before easing after hours. S&P Global services PMI was 51.2 versus 51.3 expected, while ISM services registered 54.0 versus 54.2 expected with stronger hiring and lower cost pressure. SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 addition and Nvidia's roadmap response supplied technology context, while a 100% tariff threat tied to EU digital taxes, Waller's policy remarks and fresh Hormuz vessel strikes kept trade, rates and geopolitical risks visible.
3 session driversIndex and AI updates6 key headlinesThe U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to 54 in June, as business hiring unexpectedly rebounded and cost pressures eased to a four-month low.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.41%
SPY+0.88%
QQQ falls 2.18% and trails SPY as chip, macro and Hormuz risks converge
QQQ ended 2.18% below its prior close and SPY finished 0.68% lower, leaving QQQ behind by 1.50 percentage points. QQQ opened down 1.19% while SPY opened down 0.14%, and both lost additional ground during regular trading and after hours. DeepSeek's inference-chip development and Samsung's AI SSD production supplied semiconductor context. The May trade deficit widened 42.2% to $77.6 billion, while the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation rose to 3.7%. Damaged tankers near Hormuz and later U.S. strikes on Iran kept energy and geopolitical risk prominent.
3 session driversAI and semiconductor shifts6 key headlinesThe U.S. trade deficit in May hit a new high in over a year, with a rebound in imports likely to weigh on second-quarter economic growth.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.84%
SPY-0.48%
QQQ reverses higher amid FOMC minutes and renewed Iran-Hormuz tension
QQQ opened 0.62% below its prior close but finished 0.40% higher, while SPY opened down 0.61% and ended 0.32% lower. QQQ led SPY by 0.71 percentage points at the final observation, with most of the divergence forming during regular trading. U.S.-Iran and Hormuz updates remained prominent around the open and after the close. Oil and shipping-security statements added energy context, while the FOMC minutes kept the inflation and policy outlook in focus.
3 session driversIran and Hormuz updates6 key headlinesExpress News | U.S. President Trump: U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding "Is Over"
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.26%
SPY-0.32%
QQQ gains 1.62% as Meta compute plans, firm labor data and Hormuz risk share focus
QQQ opened 0.97% above its prior close and finished 1.62% higher, while SPY opened up 0.27% and ended 0.81% higher. QQQ led SPY by 0.81 percentage points at the final observation, with the lead widening in premarket and regular trading. Meta compute plans and new AI product reports kept technology investment in focus. Labor data were firmer than forecasts, while existing-home sales missed expectations. Iran and Hormuz developments remained an energy and geopolitical risk backdrop.
3 session driversAI capacity and products6 key headlinesTrump Sours on Iran Deal at NATO Summit, Says 'Let's Just Finish The Job' As Strait Of Hormuz Violence Escalates: 'I'm Not Sure I Want To...'
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.65%
SPY+0.84%
QQQ recovers its early lag amid elevated-inflation warnings and renewed Iran talks
QQQ opened 0.34% below its prior close and finished 0.42% higher, while SPY opened 0.04% higher and ended up 0.41%. QQQ led by 0.01 percentage points at the final observation. A Fed report on elevated inflation, shifting U.S.-Iran negotiations, and chip and platform-policy updates framed the session.
3 session driversInflation and trade policy6 key headlinesFed's July Monetary Policy Reports Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Driven By Tariffs And Factors Related To Middle East War, AI; Already Strong Inflation Ticked Up Further In The…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.31%
SPY+0.42%
U.S. markets close Saturday as Hormuz tensions escalate
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY held their prior closes. The day’s context centered on Iran’s retaliation vow, a pullback from renewed talks, the IEA’s oil-demand assessment, and a later ship attack and U.S. strike in the Strait of Hormuz.
2 session driversHormuz security escalation4 key headlinesIran Attacks Ship, Shuts Strait of Hormuz 'Until Further Notice'—US Launches Strike as Pete Hegseth Says 'Iran Made a Poor Choice'
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ and SPY remain at Friday’s closes as fresh Iran strikes shape Sunday risk
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday’s closes. Hormuz remained open under severe pressure earlier in the day, and a conditional U.S. signal left room for an Iran deal. Later reports described a fresh U.S. strike order, oil above $74, weaker stock futures, and CENTCOM’s statement that Iran did not control the strait.
2 session driversHormuz access and oil4 key headlinesTrump Directs Fresh Strikes to 'Hold Iranian Forces Accountable,' Says CENTCOM; Oil Tops $74 as Dow Futures Fall Over 100 Points
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ ends down 2.06%, 1.16 points behind SPY amid rate warnings and Iran escalation
QQQ opened 1.06% below its previous close and was down 2.06% by 4:00 a.m. ET. SPY moved from -0.32% at the regular open to -0.90%, leaving QQQ 1.16 percentage points behind. Waller said another hot core inflation reading could warrant a near-term rate hike and identified tariffs, energy prices, and AI buildout demand as inflation pressures. Hormuz fee and blockade statements were followed by further military threats and a third night of U.S. strikes. Semiconductor news ranged from TSMC’s 67.9% June revenue growth to a report that Nvidia cut more than half of its Asian AI-chip customers.
3 session driversInflation and the rate path6 key headlinesPresident Trump On Truth Social Says Hormuz Strait Is Open, And Will Remain Open, With Or Without Iran; Reinstating Iranian Blockade; U.S.A. Will Be Known As " Guardian Of Hormuz…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.89%
SPY-0.77%
QQQ gains 1.45% and leads SPY by 0.93 points alongside cooler CPI and chip updates
QQQ opened 1.20% above its previous close and was up 1.45% by 4:00 a.m. ET on July 15. SPY moved from a 0.23% regular-open gain to 0.52%, leaving QQQ 0.93 percentage points ahead. June CPI rose 3.5% from a year earlier, below the 3.8% forecast and the prior 4.2%, and short-term rate futures rose as traders reduced rate-hike bets. Chip and AI updates included the start of H200 shipments to China, an ASML earnings beat, and New York’s one-year moratorium on new data centers. Replacing the proposed 20% Hormuz fee with trade and investment deals was followed by a renewed U.S. naval blockade and fresh military warnings. Prices after 8:00 p.m. ET were carried.
3 session driversInflation and rate expectations6 key headlinesExpress News | US Jun. CPI YoY +3.5% Vs +3.8% Forecast, Prior +4.2%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.11%
SPY+0.36%
QQQ reverses lower as cooler PPI meets hawkish Fed and Iran shipping risk
QQQ opened 0.60% above its previous close but was down 0.32% by 4:00 a.m. ET on July 16. SPY moved from a 0.33% regular-open gain to a 0.38% advance, leaving SPY 0.70 points ahead. June PPI rose 5.5% year over year, below the 6.2% forecast and prior 6.5%. Fed officials still called inflation too high and said one month of CPI and PPI did not make a trend. U.S. strike and blockade updates kept Iran and shipping risks in view. Tech news included China approval for Apple Intelligence, limited H200 shipments, and Taiwan Semiconductor earnings above estimates. Prices after 8:00 p.m. ET were carried, not new trades.
3 session driversInflation and the rate path6 key headlinesExpress News | US June PPI YoY +5.5% Vs +6.2% Forecast, Prior +6.5%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.28%
SPY+0.39%
QQQ drops 2.07% as a hot Philly Fed reading, TSMC spending and tanker risk share focus
QQQ opened 0.79% below its previous close and was down 2.07% by 4:00 a.m. ET on July 17. SPY moved from a 0.27% opening decline to a 0.76% loss, finishing 1.31 percentage points ahead. June retail sales matched the 0.2% estimate, initial claims were 208,000 versus 216,000 expected, the Philadelphia Fed index was 41.4 versus 12.7, and pending home sales fell 5.4% versus a 0.5% decline forecast. Logan called for a modestly higher policy rate. Taiwan Semiconductor raised 2026 capital spending to $60 billion-$64 billion. Other headlines included new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazil and a pause in Basrah oil loadings after a tanker attack.
3 session driversMacro data and the rate outlook6 key headlinesUSA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index For July 41.4 Vs 12.7 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.63%
SPY-0.54%
QQQ falls 1.75% amid mixed housing data, hawkish Fed remarks and Iran shipping risk
QQQ opened 2.05% below its previous close and recovered part of the decline to finish down 1.75% by 4:00 a.m. ET on July 18. SPY moved from an opening loss of 1.16% to a 1.09% decline, finishing 0.65 percentage points ahead. June housing starts were 1.427 million versus 1.310 million expected, while permits were 1.367 million versus 1.400 million expected. July consumer sentiment rose to 54.4 and one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2%. Hammack said inflation remained too high and employment was near full. AI headlines included a potential $10 billion Meta-Anthropic computing deal and SpaceX talks with the Pentagon. U.S.-Iran military and shipping risks remained prominent.
3 session driversMixed macro data and the rate outlook6 key headlinesU.S. Military, On X, Says U.S. Forces Successfully Destroyed The Chah Bahar Shahid Kalantari Port Surveillance Tower, Part Of A Maritime Surveillance Network Along Iran’s Gulf Of…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.51%
SPY-1.00%
Flight shutdowns and renewed strikes define Saturday risk
U.S. markets were closed on Saturday, leaving QQQ and SPY carried at Friday's closes of $693.60 and $742.50. Gulf tensions intensified as Kuwait halted flights after Iranian attacks, oil moved toward $88, Iran froze commitments under last month's memorandum, and a Kuwait oil site was hit. Two U.S. service members were reported killed in Jordan, while fresh U.S.-Iran strikes later followed the collapse of a ceasefire. Semiconductor coverage showed DRAM ETF inflows rising despite weakness in Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, and Kioxia.
2 session driversGulf escalation and oil risk5 key headlinesKuwait Halts All Flights After Iranian Attacks; Oil Prices Spike as Regional Escalation Intensifies
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Brent above $90 and a Hormuz vessel fire dominate Sunday headlines
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, so QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's closes of $693.60 and $742.50. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes. A later update put U.S. troop deaths at 17 while Brent moved above $90 and Dow futures slipped. A vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Arabian Gulf oil flows nevertheless held near 14 million barrels a day. Marco Rubio said Washington remained open to diplomacy while warning about deeper conflict. Germany's June producer price index was -0.3% month over month, versus -0.2% expected and 0.3% previously.
2 session driversIran escalation, oil, and shipping5 key headlinesTrump Says US 'Hit Them Very Hard Again Tonight' as Troop Death Toll Climbs—Brent Oil Tops $90, Dow Futures Slip
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ holds a 0.23-point edge as early gains fade amid Iran and tariff headlines
QQQ opened 0.98% higher but ended nearly flat at a 0.07% gain. SPY opened 0.50% higher and finished down 0.16%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.23 percentage points. The session's context included an Iranian missile strike on U.S. troop housing in Jordan, a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran, and a Houthi maritime embargo threat against Saudi Arabia. A White House announcement added 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods. BlackRock-led financing of $12 billion for new Meta data centers kept AI infrastructure spending in focus.
3 session driversIran escalation and shipping risk5 key headlines'Iran Missile Struck Housing for U.S. Troops at Jordan Base' - WSJ Exclusive
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.10%
SPY-0.16%
AI policy, tariff deadlines and Iran risk frame a 1.80% QQQ advance
QQQ opened 1.51% higher and finished up 1.80%. SPY opened 0.57% higher and ended with a 0.80% gain, leaving QQQ ahead by 1.00 percentage point. Technology context included reports that Alibaba and ByteDance joined talks over possible tighter Chinese AI and chip export curbs, while Amazon Business reached $60 billion in annualized gross sales. Trade-policy attention returned as the United States was reported to be preparing new duties by Friday. After the close, API data showed a 2.603 million-barrel crude build against an expected 1.500 million-barrel draw, and Trump said the United States was not interested in Iran's request for talks while warning against a Red Sea blockade.
3 session driversAI policy and technology demand5 key headlinesAlibaba, ByteDance Join Regulatory Talks As Beijing Tightens Grip With Sweeping AI, Chip Export Curbs: Report
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.85%
SPY+0.84%
QQQ closes 0.59% lower, with yields, AI spending and late earnings in focus
QQQ opened 0.65% lower and finished down 0.59%. SPY opened 0.19% lower and ended with a 0.21% decline, leaving SPY ahead by 0.37 percentage point. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remained above 5.00% for its longest stretch since 2007. Technology news included a 2-gigawatt AMD-Anthropic chip and investment agreement. After the close, Alphabet beat EPS and sales estimates, while Tesla missed the adjusted EPS estimate but beat the sales estimate. Energy and geopolitical context included a 2.010 million-barrel U.S. crude build against an expected 2.000 million-barrel draw and Trump's warning that the United States would respond with bombing if Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
3 session driversLong-term Treasury yields6 key headlinesTesla Q2 Adj. EPS $0.33 Misses $0.50 Estimate, Sales $28.236B Beat $25.706B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.53%
SPY-0.12%
Chip, Iran and tariff developments crowd the tape as QQQ falls 1.67%
QQQ finished 1.67% lower and SPY lost 1.15%, leaving QQQ 0.52 percentage point behind. AI and semiconductor updates, Iran-related shipping and military headlines, and macro and tariff policy supplied the session's main context.
3 session driversAI and semiconductor developments6 key headlinesIntel Q2 Adj. EPS $0.42 Beats $0.21 Estimate, Sales $16.128B Beat $14.417B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.89%
SPY-1.23%
QQQ sinks 1.16% while SPY holds near flat amid chip pricing and Gulf risk
QQQ finished 1.16% lower while SPY was little changed with a 0.07% gain, leaving QQQ 1.23 percentage points behind. Business-activity data, semiconductor pricing and AI releases, and Iran-related military and shipping developments supplied the session's main context.
3 session driversRelative gap and business data5 key headlinesUSA S&P Global Composite PMI For July 53.6 Vs 51.9 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.12%
SPY+0.09%
Strike pause and shipping disruption reshape Saturday's Gulf risk
U.S. stocks were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's close. Gulf headlines moved from Houthi attacks and disrupted shipping toward a U.S. strike pause and diplomacy, while fresh Iran sanctions and a $200 billion AI-chip pact added policy and technology context.
3 session driversGulf escalation and diplomacy6 key headlinesSaudi-Led Coalition Strikes Houthi Targets In Response to Militia Attacks; Energy Markets Brace for Volatility
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news centers on Iran restraint signals and AI financing
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY stayed at Friday's closing levels. Iran coverage mixed a pause in U.S. strikes and room for talks with blockade pressure and an Israeli warning. Later reports highlighted NVIDIA's $1 billion Naver investment and $500 billion-plus SK collaboration, talks over roughly $250 billion of OpenAI financing, and CXMT's Shanghai debut.
3 session driversIran restraint and deterrence6 key headlinesUS Pauses Iran Strikes Again As Blockade Tightens; Brent Crude Near $97
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Chip and policy pressure erase QQQ's 1.06% opening gain, leaving SPY ahead by 0.43 points
QQQ opened 1.06% higher but finished 0.44% lower. SPY opened up 0.77% and ended essentially flat, outperforming QQQ by 0.43 percentage points. China chip-equipment and memory developments, U.S. capital-goods data, Nvidia financing, Fed commentary, and Iran shipping risk provided the day's main context. The steepest measured declines followed the 09:41 ET China DUV report and the 09:46 ET core capital-goods update, while later headlines produced mixed, generally smaller moves.
3 session driversChina chip competition6 key headlines'China Starts Mass-Producing Homegrown DUV Chipmaking Tools, An Advance for Local Chip Industry' - The Information
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.32%
SPY+0.01%
SPY rises while QQQ lags as chip stress and Middle East risk frame a split session
QQQ opened down 0.8767% and finished the complete window down 0.3284%, while SPY opened down 0.0352% and finished up 0.6062%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.9346 percentage points. Review the July consumer-confidence miss, semiconductor and concentrated-AI exposure updates, and the sequence of Iran, shipping and sanctions developments. These events provide market context and observed timing, not proof of causation.
3 session driversConsumer confidence5 key headlinesSK Hynix Earnings Miss Expectations; U.S.-Listed Shares Fall as Much as 9% After Hours
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.97%
SPY+0.23%
Fed-day selling leaves both ETFs lower before overnight strikes sharpen the energy-risk backdrop
At the 04:00 ET cutoff, QQQ fell 1.39% and SPY fell 1.14%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.25 percentage point. Most of the decline came in the regular session, while QQQ recovered 0.70 percentage point and SPY 0.40 after hours. The Fed held rates steady with three hike dissents, and its 2% inflation message kept policy in focus. Meta and Microsoft results led the technology-heavy after-hours cluster. Overnight, U.S. Central Command confirmed completed strikes on Iran, while QatarEnergy's U.S. LNG purchases showed a response to Hormuz disruption. The overnight chart segment contains carried prices, so it does not provide an observed ETF response to those updates.
3 session driversFed policy split6 key headlinesExpress News | The Federal Reserve held rates steady, with three officials dissenting in favor of a rate hike.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.07%
SPY-1.53%
QQQ rises through every active session as Microsoft and Meta widen megacap tech leadership
QQQ gained 4.01% and SPY 1.90%, leaving QQQ ahead by 2.11 percentage points. QQQ added 1.85 percentage points before the open, 1.39 during regular trading, and 0.74 after hours, while SPY gained less in each active session. Microsoft's 43% Azure growth and later Meta and Amazon AI-spending commitments kept technology prominent. GDP growth missed forecasts while core PCE matched expectations. Apple beat quarterly estimates, then issued softer growth guidance and tighter supply signals. Overnight updates added weak Hormuz traffic and an Iranian report of a drone strike on a U.S. base in Kuwait. Overnight prices were carried, so those later headlines do not have an observed ETF response.
4 session driversMegacap technology leadership6 key headlinesMicrosoft shares rise more than 10% premarket after Azure grows 43% and beats expectations
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.31%
SPY+1.68%
QQQ's opening surge fades to a SPY lead before overnight currency and chip-supply updates
QQQ gained 0.13% and SPY 0.34%, leaving SPY 0.20 percentage points ahead. QQQ opened 1.33% higher against SPY's 0.44%, then lost ground in regular and after-hours trading. Amazon's cloud beat contrasted with Apple's softer guidance, and Apple's DRAM-cost disclosure appeared near a sharp QQQ-led reversal. The Employment Cost Index beat expectations and dissenting Fed officials favored tighter policy. Conflicting Hormuz claims, possible strikes on Iranian energy assets, and a tanker attack near Oman kept energy risk high. Overnight reports described joint U.S.-Japan yen buying and continued Japan chip shutdowns. Overnight prices were carried, so those updates have no observed ETF response.
4 session driversMegacap earnings crosscurrents6 key headlinesU.S. premarket: Amazon (AMZN.O) rises 11% as Q2 cloud revenue beats expectations; Apple (AAPL.O) falls 6.7% after Q4 revenue guidance misses expectations; SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rises…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.64%
SPY+0.69%