QQQ recovers its early lag amid elevated-inflation warnings and renewed Iran talks

QQQ opened 0.34% below its prior close and finished 0.42% higher, while SPY opened 0.04% higher and ended up 0.41%. QQQ led by 0.01 percentage points at the final observation. A Fed report on elevated inflation, shifting U.S.-Iran negotiations, and chip and platform-policy updates framed the session.

Published Aug 1, 2026Updated Aug 11, 2026

QQQ: +0.42%
SPY: +0.41%
QQQ − SPY: +0.01%

What shaped the session

Inflation and trade policy

The Fed said inflation remained elevated amid tariffs, Middle East conflict, and AI-related factors. Aircraft tariffs were deferred with a six-month deadline, while a Goldman Sachs analysis estimated AI investment could add to U.S. inflation.

Iran negotiation risk

Trump said Iran asked to continue talks and that the United States agreed, while also saying the ceasefire was over and Tehran could not restart its nuclear program.

Technology policy and supply

Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek were told they could soon receive approval to buy Nvidia H200 chips. Separately, Meta faced possible EU fines over allegedly addictive platform design.

Key news

Loading the full-day price curve…

You can explore the full-day price curve and 6 featured headlines now. Pro adds all 23 headlines, measured 1/5/15/30/60-minute reactions, the complete timeline, and historically similar news.

Already subscribed? to view the full review.

Related market reviews

Apr 6, 2026Inflation · similar QQQ/SPY splitQQQ and SPY edge higher amid Hormuz talks, services inflation and AI dealsQQQ gained 0.35% and SPY rose 0.32%, leaving technology ahead by only 0.03 percentage points. A Pakistan-backed ceasefire framework and Iraq's potential 3.4 million-barrel-per-day export restoration offered diplomatic and supply relief, while Iran's 10-point response showed that terms remained contested. The ISM services index eased to 54 as prices paid reached the highest level since October 2022, and later Fed remarks leaned toward tighter policy. Broadcom's long-term TPU agreement with Google and expanded Anthropic collaboration added a separate AI infrastructure theme.Open review
Apr 10, 2026Also covers InflationInflation data, Iran negotiations and AI security frame a QQQ-led gainQQQ rose 0.38% and SPY gained 0.11%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.27 percentage points. March headline CPI was 3.3% year over year versus a 3.4% forecast, while core CPI rose 0.2% month over month versus 0.3% expected. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a record-low 47.6 as inflation expectations increased. Iran headlines combined a 24-hour negotiating deadline and a warning of force with the arrival of a delegation for conditional peace talks, while Hormuz traffic remained sparse. AI news included Taiwan Semiconductor's 35.1% first-quarter revenue growth and discussions between U.S. officials and major banks about Anthropic's Mythos cyber threat.Open review
Mar 26, 2026Also covers InflationQQQ falls 2.05% and trails SPY amid inflation, Iran and AI investment headlinesQQQ opened 0.89% lower and finished down 2.05%, while SPY opened 0.73% lower and finished down 1.36%. QQQ trailed SPY by 0.68 percentage points. Both weakened through regular trading, reached their lows shortly after the close and recovered part of the decline after hours. Jobless claims were close to estimates, while Federal Reserve commentary kept inflation risk in view. Iran-related diplomacy and military reports remained prominent, and Meta outlined a $10 billion AI data center investment.Open review

←Jul 9:QQQ gains 1.62% as Meta compute plans, firm labor data and Hormuz risk share focus·View all July 2026 QQQ/SPY reviews·Jul 11:U.S. markets close Saturday as Hormuz tensions escalate→