Official U.S. CPI releaseWed, Aug 12July 2026
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
August 2026
Replay August 2026 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 31
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 1,419
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Aug 1, 2026 — Aug 31, 2026
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at +4.19% and SPY at +2.67% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY sessionLargest QQQ–SPY divergence
QQQ holds its 1.26-point edge through AMD volatility before Red Sea tanker risk returns
QQQ rose 3.24% and SPY gained 1.98%, leaving QQQ ahead by 1.26 percentage points. QQQ added 1.97 points during regular trading versus 1.30 for SPY. June JOLTS openings and factory orders missed expectations, while the two ETFs advanced after the 10:00 ET releases. AMD beat headline earnings and sales estimates after the close, but QQQ fell 0.40% over the next 15 minutes. SpaceX later outlined plans to use Nvidia systems for its AI services and space-based data centers. Overnight reports moved from a possible 60-day Hormuz agreement to U.S. threats, an Iranian warning of delay, and a Houthi claim that it attacked a Saudi oil tanker. Both curves remained at their 20:00 ET levels overnight.
4 session driversMacro data and the session advance6 key headlinesAdvanced Micro Devices Q2 Adj. EPS $1.66 Beats $1.61 Estimate, Sales $11.536B Beat $11.284B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.37%
SPY+1.79%
Weakest QQQ session
QQQ drops 1.88% and trails SPY by 1.15 points before tariff and H200 relief overnight
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.88% and SPY 0.73% after both opened lower, leaving SPY ahead by 1.15 percentage points. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest since early 2025, July housing starts and pending home sales missed estimates, and Trump said no talks with Iran were scheduled. Overnight, Trump paused planned 50% tariffs on Canada for three days and the Financial Times reported that China eased limits on Nvidia H200 chips.
4 session driversLong-yield pressure6 key headlinesUSA Pending Home Sales (MoM) For July -2.3% Vs 0.1% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.68%
SPY-0.68%
Weakest SPY session
QQQ falls 0.76% and narrowly leads SPY as Treasury messages and maritime disruptions accumulate
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.76% and SPY was down 0.80%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.05 percentage points after both opened lower and losses deepened. Available overnight prices were unchanged after 20:00 ET. Weekly jobless claims were 206,000 versus a 210,000 forecast. Treasury Secretary Bessent said markets had moved somewhat ahead of themselves and outlined coordination with the Fed on balance-sheet changes. Meta’s Azure spending and Broadcom’s reported AI financing kept infrastructure demand in view. An oil tanker seizure and a fall in Strait of Hormuz cargo transits to 7 from 14 extended the maritime-security focus.
3 session driversLabor and Treasury policy6 key headlinesExpress News | US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 206000 Vs 210000 Forecast, Prior 212000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.71%
SPY-0.84%
Strongest intraday rebound
QQQ and SPY end higher, with SPY 0.16 points ahead after Treasury buybacks and Hormuz talks
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.17% and SPY 0.33%, after opening 0.33% and 0.38% higher and narrowing during regular trading before a partial after-hours recovery. The Treasury expanded long-term nominal bond buybacks, Fed minutes recorded some support for a rate hike and flagged AI-valuation risks, limited Nvidia H200 shipments reached ByteDance and Tencent, and a U.S.-backed Hormuz corridor moved about 10 million barrels of oil per day. Overnight, Japan reported 23.2% export growth with semiconductor-equipment exports up 49.1%, while Iran-Oman talks on a Hormuz shipping mechanism neared completion.
4 session driversTreasury liquidity and yields6 key headlinesExpress News | The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced an expansion in the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond repurchases.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.19%
SPY+0.21%
Calmest session
Morning gains fade as QQQ falls 0.42% and trails SPY by 0.31 points amid Apple and AI-capital news
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.42% and SPY 0.12%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.31 percentage point. QQQ had traded 0.50% above its prior close in premarket trading, but lost 0.27 point during the regular session and another 0.15 point after the close, while SPY's declines were smaller. An Apple downgrade accompanied the technology-heavy ETF's relative weakness, while Nvidia's $500 billion AI infrastructure platform and Intel's $20 billion share offering extended the capital-cycle backdrop. Overnight, Anthropic's reported $9.1 billion Riot deal and a deadly Houthi strike on a commercial vessel added fresh AI-compute and shipping-risk context, with carried prices providing no new measured response.
3 session driversApple and relative weakness6 key headlinesJefferies downgrades Apple to Underperform
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.31%
SPY-0.03%
Busiest news day
QQQ finishes 0.55 points ahead with Nvidia strength before an after-hours fade
QQQ rose 1.04% and SPY gained 0.49%, leaving QQQ 0.55 percentage points ahead after opening gains of 0.94% and 0.33%. Both added during the regular session before QQQ gave back 0.35 percentage points and SPY 0.17 points after hours. Nvidia climbed 7.4% before the open on strong guidance, and Marvell later issued third-quarter ranges around or above estimates. Initial claims were 203,000 against 208,000 expected while Hammack said rates were not restrictive enough. Overnight reports said Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to about two-thirds of prewar levels and Moody's warned AI spending could weaken cloud providers' credit metrics.
4 session driversChip strength and guidance6 key headlinesNvidia Stock Climbs Over 7% in Thursday Pre-Market: What’s Lifting Micron, Intel and Other Chip Stocks?
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.36%
SPY+0.65%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01Google
Geopolitics
517 related news items · 31 review days
22.3%+3.0 pp vs prior 3 months
02Oil
319 related news items · 31 review days
13.8%+5.9 pp vs prior 3 months
03AI
360 related news items · 30 review days
15.5%-1.2 pp vs prior 3 months
04Semiconductors
182 related news items · 29 review days
7.9%-3.7 pp vs prior 3 months
05Nvidia
125 related news items · 28 review days
5.4%+0.1 pp vs prior 3 months
0686 related news items · 26 review days
3.7%+0.7 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
Markets pause as Iran diplomacy and energy-supply updates shape the weekend
QQQ and SPY stayed at Friday's closes while U.S. markets were shut, so neither ETF led. Weekend reports moved from the IRGC's claimed strike on a U.S.-used base toward Trump's conditional cancellation of another U.S. strike and a reported Qatar-U.S. proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Japan's electricity-cost increase and a reported OPEC+ output plan added energy context.
3 session driversMiddle East escalation and diplomacy5 key headlinesTrump Says He Agreed to Cancel a Strike on Iran
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Closed-market Sunday brings yen intervention, Hormuz uncertainty and new AI-capacity signals
QQQ and SPY recorded no trading move because U.S. markets were closed. The main context came from confirmed U.S.-Japan yen intervention, an Iranian clarification that its talks were with Oman rather than the United States, an OPEC+ September quota increase, and quantified TSMC and cloud-provider AI capacity plans.
3 session driversJoint yen intervention5 key headlinesUnited States and Japan Confirm Joint Intervention in Yen Market
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ gains 2% and leads SPY as factory and AI strength gives way to overnight Hormuz risk
QQQ rose 2.01% and SPY gained 1.51%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.49 percentage points after it reversed a 0.16% opening dip. July ISM factory strength, the White House AI-framework report and Palantir’s higher revenue outlook accompanied the regular-session and after-hours advance. After 20:00 ET, carried prices stayed unchanged while reports described a cargo-ship attack, explosions around a U.S. base in Kuwait and later Iran-Oman navigation talks.
3 session driversFactory strength6 key headlinesExpress News | The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, above the expected 54 and the previous reading of 53.3.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.75%
SPY+1.42%
QQQ holds its 1.26-point edge through AMD volatility before Red Sea tanker risk returns
QQQ rose 3.24% and SPY gained 1.98%, leaving QQQ ahead by 1.26 percentage points. QQQ added 1.97 points during regular trading versus 1.30 for SPY. June JOLTS openings and factory orders missed expectations, while the two ETFs advanced after the 10:00 ET releases. AMD beat headline earnings and sales estimates after the close, but QQQ fell 0.40% over the next 15 minutes. SpaceX later outlined plans to use Nvidia systems for its AI services and space-based data centers. Overnight reports moved from a possible 60-day Hormuz agreement to U.S. threats, an Iranian warning of delay, and a Houthi claim that it attacked a Saudi oil tanker. Both curves remained at their 20:00 ET levels overnight.
4 session driversMacro data and the session advance6 key headlinesAdvanced Micro Devices Q2 Adj. EPS $1.66 Beats $1.61 Estimate, Sales $11.536B Beat $11.284B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+3.37%
SPY+1.79%
QQQ drops 1.01% while SPY stays near flat, a 0.99-point split alongside fresh shipping disruption
QQQ ended down 1.01% while SPY was essentially flat at -0.03%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.99 percentage point. Both opened higher, but during the regular session QQQ lost 1.20 percentage points from its opening bar versus 0.84 for SPY, and the gap widened another 0.22 percentage point after hours. Softer-than-forecast ADP hiring and ISM services readings, Google and Meta AI updates, and a tanker incident were followed overnight by evidence of sharply lower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
3 session driversJobs and services data6 key headlinesExpress News | US July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change +44000 Vs +68000 Forecast, Prior +98000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.91%
SPY-0.20%
QQQ recovers its opening gap as productivity, AppLovin and Hormuz policy share focus
QQQ finished essentially flat at -0.04% and SPY fell 0.10%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.06 percentage point. QQQ entered regular trading down 0.93%, then recovered 0.55 point during the session and 0.21 point after the close. SPY moved from a 0.05% opening gain to a loss. Faster productivity, softer unit labor costs and Musalem's rate-hike stance framed policy. AppLovin's revenue miss and Alphabet's $115 billion of bond orders supplied technology and financing context. Overnight, a toll-free Hormuz framework and the reported U.S. euro sale to support the yen added shipping and currency-policy updates.
3 session driversLabor, productivity and rates6 key headlinesU.S. Q2 labor productivity accelerates as companies rein in costs
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.38%
SPY-0.16%
Weak payrolls accompany a 1.20% QQQ advance before Nvidia's overnight Lancium investment
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 1.20% and SPY 0.63%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.57 percentage point. July payrolls fell by 23,000 and Barkin described a weak-balance labor market, while attacks on ADNOC vessels and progress in Oman-Iran talks kept energy-route risk in focus. Overnight, Nvidia outlined an investment of up to $3 billion in Lancium's AI power infrastructure, and a report said U.S. military leaders were seeking a path out of the Iran war.
3 session driversLabor and rate path6 key headlinesU.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Fell by 23,000 in July Versus an Expected 80,000, With May and June Revised Down by a Combined 103,000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.17%
SPY+0.60%
Hormuz oil flows, U.S. funding and China tech signals define a closed-market Saturday
QQQ and SPY did not trade because U.S. markets were closed. Weekend context centered on a 75% drop in Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and mixed signals on future transit, while the Senate advanced temporary federal funding. Separate updates pointed to depleted U.S. Patriot inventories, narrower monthly CPI declines in China and Apple's removal of a Qwen integration guide.
4 session driversHormuz oil flow6 key headlinesU.S. Senate Passes Stopgap Funding Bill Aimed at Avoiding Government Shutdown
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Shipping diplomacy and semiconductor expansion lead Sunday headlines while U.S. markets rest
QQQ and SPY did not trade because U.S. markets were closed. Iran and Oman reported agreement on a shipping transit roadmap while CENTCOM detailed vessel diversions in the Strait of Hormuz. A reported Sony-TSMC image-sensor venture, TSMC's July revenue growth and Apple's reported CXMT tests added fresh semiconductor and supply-chain context, alongside softer July U.S. CPI forecasts.
4 session driversShipping diplomacy and enforcement6 key headlinesIran Says It and Oman Agree on Shipping Transit Roadmap, Consult on Final Technical Details
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Morning gains fade as QQQ falls 0.42% and trails SPY by 0.31 points amid Apple and AI-capital news
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.42% and SPY 0.12%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.31 percentage point. QQQ had traded 0.50% above its prior close in premarket trading, but lost 0.27 point during the regular session and another 0.15 point after the close, while SPY's declines were smaller. An Apple downgrade accompanied the technology-heavy ETF's relative weakness, while Nvidia's $500 billion AI infrastructure platform and Intel's $20 billion share offering extended the capital-cycle backdrop. Overnight, Anthropic's reported $9.1 billion Riot deal and a deadly Houthi strike on a commercial vessel added fresh AI-compute and shipping-risk context, with carried prices providing no new measured response.
3 session driversApple and relative weakness6 key headlinesJefferies downgrades Apple to Underperform
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.31%
SPY-0.03%
QQQ and SPY lose opening gains, fall about 0.26%, and finish nearly even amid rate and Hormuz risks
QQQ fell 0.26% and SPY fell 0.27%, leaving the two ETFs essentially even after their modest opening gains faded. Both reached their session lows near 14:30 ET, recovered only part of the decline after hours, and then held steady overnight through 04:00 ET. Direct policy commentary, physical oil flows and shipping security around Hormuz, and fresh AI demand measures provided the main background.
3 session driversInflation and policy path6 key headlinesU.S. Military Says It Struck a Commercial Ship Headed for an Iranian Port With Missiles
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.35%
SPY-0.34%
CPI detail and 98%-99% TSMC CoWoS yields accompany QQQ's 0.35-point edge after gains narrow
QQQ and SPY stayed above their prior closes after giving back much of their opening gains. By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.57% and SPY was up 0.23%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.35 percentage points. July inflation detail, CoreWeave pricing and a large U.S. crude-inventory build framed regular trading, while later updates added 98%-99% CoWoS production yields and Maersk's view that port congestion, rather than the Strait of Hormuz, was driving high freight rates.
3 session driversInflation and rate path6 key headlinesNick Timiraos: July U.S. core goods prices rose 0.20%, the largest monthly gain since September 2025; shelter rose 0.14% and core services excluding shelter rose 0.19%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.73%
SPY+0.25%
QQQ rises 1.19% and leads SPY as soft PPI and Lenovo's record quarter offset Hormuz disruption
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 1.19% and SPY 0.73%, with QQQ widening its advantage during regular trading and finishing 0.46 percentage point ahead. Softer July PPI and Lenovo's record revenue coincided with the early QQQ-led advance, while Applied Materials' above-consensus guidance extended the semiconductor backdrop after the close. Overnight reports that Apple was training a China AI model with Alibaba support and that Asian refiners were buying U.S. crude as Hormuz traffic stayed constrained broadened the final account.
3 session driversProducer prices and rates6 key headlinesUSA PPI (MoM) For July 0.0% Vs 0.2% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.16%
SPY+0.69%
QQQ slips 0.17% but leads SPY as consumer weakness, Hormuz risk and an AI-financing reset emerge
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.17% and SPY 0.24% after both opened higher, leaving QQQ 0.07 percentage point ahead. Core retail sales missed estimates and Michigan sentiment weakened as inflation expectations rose. Strait of Hormuz claims and vessel attacks kept shipping risk in focus into the night. Nvidia's reported SpaceX and Intel holdings added one AI-capital link, while an overnight report said Nvidia and OpenAI cut the proposed guarantee for an Ohio data-center project from $250 billion to less than $120 billion.
3 session driversConsumer demand and inflation6 key headlinesUSA Core Retail Sales (MoM) For July -0.3% Vs 0.2% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.14%
SPY-0.20%
Saturday brings Hormuz security strains and new Nvidia and AI disclosures as U.S. markets close
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY did not trade and neither led. Shipping risk stayed central as Iran and Oman announced a Strait of Hormuz transit plan, the GCC cited attacks on an ADNOC tanker, and Yemen's Mokha Port halted operations after a Houthi attack. Nvidia's reported $3 billion SB Energy talks, new U.S. drone tariffs and a Pentagon task force, and Anthropic's AI-safety findings added technology and policy context.
3 session driversHormuz and Red Sea security6 key headlinesIran Says It Reached Agreement with Oman on a Strait of Hormuz Transit Plan
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Strait access, softer U.S. spending and AI infrastructure shape Sunday headlines
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY did not trade and neither led. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell sharply and Iran tied reopening to U.S. commitments, while July U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% and CME FedWatch put the chance of no September rate change at 66.9%. TrendForce's liquid-cooling outlook and TSMC's Arizona expansion added AI-infrastructure context.
3 session driversStrait access and shipping6 key headlinesKpler Says Weekend Strait of Hormuz Traffic Fell Sharply
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ loses 0.15% but leads SPY by 0.32 points amid 5.31% long yields and overnight Hormuz incidents
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.15% and SPY 0.47% after regular-session openings above their prior closes, leaving QQQ 0.32 percentage point ahead. The Empire State Manufacturing Index beat estimates, the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.31%, AI infrastructure commitments and bond issuance remained prominent, and an overnight UKMTO report of a vessel hit by an unknown projectile extended Hormuz security concerns.
4 session driversBusiness activity signal6 key headlinesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index For August 20.60 Vs 10.60 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.17%
SPY-0.47%
QQQ drops 1.88% and trails SPY by 1.15 points before tariff and H200 relief overnight
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.88% and SPY 0.73% after both opened lower, leaving SPY ahead by 1.15 percentage points. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest since early 2025, July housing starts and pending home sales missed estimates, and Trump said no talks with Iran were scheduled. Overnight, Trump paused planned 50% tariffs on Canada for three days and the Financial Times reported that China eased limits on Nvidia H200 chips.
4 session driversLong-yield pressure6 key headlinesUSA Pending Home Sales (MoM) For July -2.3% Vs 0.1% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.68%
SPY-0.68%
QQQ and SPY end higher, with SPY 0.16 points ahead after Treasury buybacks and Hormuz talks
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.17% and SPY 0.33%, after opening 0.33% and 0.38% higher and narrowing during regular trading before a partial after-hours recovery. The Treasury expanded long-term nominal bond buybacks, Fed minutes recorded some support for a rate hike and flagged AI-valuation risks, limited Nvidia H200 shipments reached ByteDance and Tencent, and a U.S.-backed Hormuz corridor moved about 10 million barrels of oil per day. Overnight, Japan reported 23.2% export growth with semiconductor-equipment exports up 49.1%, while Iran-Oman talks on a Hormuz shipping mechanism neared completion.
4 session driversTreasury liquidity and yields6 key headlinesExpress News | The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced an expansion in the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond repurchases.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.19%
SPY+0.21%
QQQ falls 0.76% and narrowly leads SPY as Treasury messages and maritime disruptions accumulate
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.76% and SPY was down 0.80%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.05 percentage points after both opened lower and losses deepened. Available overnight prices were unchanged after 20:00 ET. Weekly jobless claims were 206,000 versus a 210,000 forecast. Treasury Secretary Bessent said markets had moved somewhat ahead of themselves and outlined coordination with the Fed on balance-sheet changes. Meta’s Azure spending and Broadcom’s reported AI financing kept infrastructure demand in view. An oil tanker seizure and a fall in Strait of Hormuz cargo transits to 7 from 14 extended the maritime-security focus.
3 session driversLabor and Treasury policy6 key headlinesExpress News | US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 206000 Vs 210000 Forecast, Prior 212000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.71%
SPY-0.84%
SPY edges ahead in a higher finish as mixed PMIs give way to overnight tariff whiplash
QQQ finished 0.47% higher and SPY gained 0.58%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.11 percentage points after both opened higher. Services PMI beat expectations while manufacturing missed, and Nvidia's reported $6 billion Poolside AI licensing agreement kept AI investment in focus. Overnight, U.S.-Canada tariff talks moved from reported progress to collapse, while U.S.-Iran sanctions threats followed Hormuz shipping constraints and diplomatic contacts.
4 session driversServices-led growth signal6 key headlinesUSA S&P Global Services PMI For August 56.8 Vs 53.9 Est
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.35%
SPY+0.41%
U.S. 50% Canada tariffs, Hormuz closure and Nvidia pricing lead Saturday news
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY did not trade and neither led. U.S.-Canada talks failed and 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect, followed by Canada's Sept. 8 retaliation. Hormuz oil shipments continued under restricted access while Tehran said the strait would stay closed pending U.S. commitments. Nvidia AI-server price increases above 15%, record Indian purchases of Russian oil and an EU windfall-tax push broadened the weekend context.
4 session driversCanada tariff escalation6 key headlinesUS-Canada Trade Talks Collapse Just Before Deadline, Trump’s 50% Tariffs Take Effect
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday closes with tighter Hormuz flows, a tanker strike and fresh AI commitments
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY did not trade and neither led. U.S. plans for broader economic isolation of Iran coincided with Kpler data showing Hormuz oil flow at 6.7 million barrels a day and a UKMTO report that a tanker was hit west of Yanbu. Canada prepared support for tariff-hit businesses, while SoftBank planned a ¥1 trillion bond sale and Micron said AI-memory demand continued to outpace supply.
3 session driversHormuz sanctions and shipping6 key headlinesUKMTO Reports Tanker Hit by Unknown Projectile 63 Nautical Miles West of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia
Market closed · No intraday price curve
One Hormuz commodity ship and fresh AI financing frame QQQ's 1.02% drop and 0.75-point lag
QQQ finished down 1.02% and SPY 0.27%, with SPY ahead by 0.75 percentage points after both opened lower and recovered from morning lows. Tariff plans for Canadian vehicles and U.S. sanctions on Iran defined the policy backdrop during the session. Later reports said just one commodity ship crossed Hormuz on Monday, Russia's Afipsky refinery burned after a drone attack, and Nvidia-backed Lambda was discussing up to $3 billion in financing. Separately, research projected combined 2026 capital spending by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta at $745 billion as cloud providers weighed efficiency against AI investment.
3 session driversCanada trade policy6 key headlinesPresident Trump On Canada Says On January First, 2027, Tariffs On All Cars, Trucks, Both Large And Small, Automotive Parts, And Steel, Will Be Increased To 50%; Build In U.S. And…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.00%
SPY-0.30%
QQQ pares its opening gain to 0.41% but leads SPY as Hormuz traffic thins and AI financing broadens
QQQ rose 0.41% and SPY 0.20%, leaving QQQ 0.21 percentage points ahead after both pared opening gains. Consumer confidence missed estimates, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins said a near-term rate increase could be appropriate without sustained disinflation. OpenAI's Jalapeno benchmark kept AI-chip competition in view during regular trading. Overnight, Hormuz traffic was reported at 5 commercial vessels versus a 10-day average of 15, while SoftBank weighed as much as $20 billion of bonds to refinance OpenAI investment loans and Korean memory makers planned more Nvidia HBM4 supply.
3 session driversRates and consumer demand6 key headlinesWhy The Toughest Iran Sanctions On Record Sent Oil Lower, Not Higher
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.61%
SPY+0.31%
QQQ finishes up 1.27%, 0.65 points ahead of SPY, alongside Nvidia results and new oil-flow signals
QQQ gained 1.27% and SPY rose 0.62%, leaving QQQ 0.65 percentage points ahead after both opened about 0.14% lower. Headline PCE at 3.7% topped the 3.6% estimate, while core PCE matched 3.3% and durable-goods orders beat expectations. Nvidia's results and guidance, Amazon's plan to deploy 2 million Nvidia chips, Kioxia's new storage factory, and Nvidia's reported $12.9 billion Hugging Face acquisition expanded the AI investment backdrop. After 20:00 ET, reports added record-low U.S. diesel inventories, a tanker strike and recovering Gulf oil flows through Hormuz, stalled Canada trade talks, possible additional U.S. tariffs on China, and container rates at a two-year high.
4 session driversInflation and growth data6 key headlinesUSA PCE Price Index YoY For July 3.7% Vs 3.6% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.08%
SPY+0.01%
QQQ finishes 0.55 points ahead with Nvidia strength before an after-hours fade
QQQ rose 1.04% and SPY gained 0.49%, leaving QQQ 0.55 percentage points ahead after opening gains of 0.94% and 0.33%. Both added during the regular session before QQQ gave back 0.35 percentage points and SPY 0.17 points after hours. Nvidia climbed 7.4% before the open on strong guidance, and Marvell later issued third-quarter ranges around or above estimates. Initial claims were 203,000 against 208,000 expected while Hammack said rates were not restrictive enough. Overnight reports said Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to about two-thirds of prewar levels and Moody's warned AI spending could weaken cloud providers' credit metrics.
4 session driversChip strength and guidance6 key headlinesNvidia Stock Climbs Over 7% in Thursday Pre-Market: What’s Lifting Micron, Intel and Other Chip Stocks?
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.36%
SPY+0.65%
Rate-hike pricing and chip pressure build as QQQ reverses lower and trails SPY
QQQ fell 0.67% and SPY fell 0.23%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.44 percentage points after both ETFs peaked at 11:02 ET and reversed lower. Chicago PMI missed at 47.1 versus 57.9, while fed-funds futures priced a September rate hike as more likely than a hold. Nvidia's reported $13 billion Hugging Face bid and broader chip pressure framed QQQ's larger decline. After hours and overnight, Iran maintained shipping restrictions, U.S. Central Command described about 50,000 troops and more than 20 warships in the region, and OpenAI said it would end its Cursor partnership after SpaceX's acquisition.
3 session driversRate path and macro data6 key headlinesFed Funds Futures Now Price A September Rate Hike As More Likely Than A Hold
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.65%
SPY-0.23%
Closed Saturday puts Hormuz controls, energy deals and AI capacity in focus
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday's regular closes and neither led. Iran said Hormuz transit still required its approval, while the U.S. imposed Iran-related sanctions on Banque Misr's UAE branches and Venezuela detailed a 25-year oil agreement. Russia prepared a strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as Texas paused new data-center construction and OpenAI reported rapid Codex adoption in Thailand.
3 session driversHormuz and oil policy6 key headlinesIran Says Strait of Hormuz Is 'Completely Closed' and Transiting Ships Have Its Permission
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Hormuz escalation, tighter rate pricing and AI hardware updates define the closed Sunday
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday's regular closes and neither led. A U.S. strike on Larak Island and visible commercial traffic falling to five vessels a day sharpened Hormuz risk. CME pricing favored a cumulative 25-basis-point increase by September, while U.S. debt reached $40 trillion. Barclays' cloud-margin analysis and Samsung's reported 8-layer HBM4E work for Nvidia added new AI-economics and hardware context.
3 session driversHormuz escalation and shipping6 key headlinesU.S. Military Strikes Island in Southern Iran; Iran Vows Retaliation
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ recovers to flat and leads SPY as 10-year yields top 4.75% and Hormuz traffic thins
QQQ recovered from a 0.04% soft open to finish essentially flat at +0.04%, while SPY remained down 0.24%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.28 percentage points. The day combined a sharp Chicago PMI miss and higher Treasury yields with continuing Hormuz shipping stress, Nvidia's MediaTek investment, and overnight signs of tight AI-memory capacity.
3 session driversRates and growth6 key headlinesU.S. 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.75%, highest since January 2025
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.05%
SPY-0.31%