September 2026
Replay September 2026 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 30
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 1,398
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at +3.22% and SPY at -0.60% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
QQQ gaps higher and gains 2.99% as AMD tops $1 trillion, while late Hormuz diplomacy unfolds
QQQ and SPY opened above their prior closes and extended their gains during regular trading. At the last available prices, carried through the overnight segment, QQQ was up 2.99% and SPY 1.59%, leaving QQQ ahead by 1.39 percentage points. AMD's move above a $1 trillion market value, Meta and Nvidia AI developments, and SpaceX's increased Nasdaq-100 weight framed the technology-led advance. Brent crude falling below $100 was followed later by U.K. support for Saudi defenses, Franco-U.S. coordination on Hormuz navigation, and informal assurances that Yanbu crude loading could resume.
QQQ trails SPY as 4.8% yields, Hormuz strikes and NVIDIA talks frame a premarket-led decline
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.25% and SPY 0.67%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.58 percentage points. Most of QQQ's decline occurred before the regular open, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8%, manufacturing signals were mixed, U.S.-Iran strikes and constrained Hormuz traffic kept energy risk prominent, and Dell's AI-server outlook was followed overnight by NVIDIA's reported Hugging Face talks. No fresh public trades were observed after 20:00 ET, so overnight prices were unchanged.
QQQ falls more than SPY amid Cook's warning and Australia's overnight rate hike
At the last fresh prices at 20:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.00% and SPY was down 0.72% from the prior regular close. Both opened lower, and QQQ's deeper regular-session drop left SPY ahead by 0.28 percentage points. Cook described inflation pressure from AI investment and the Middle East, while Iranian and U.S. officials gave opposing accounts of Hormuz access. Nvidia's larger buyback and AMD's World Labs deal added technology context. Australia's central bank raised rates overnight, after fresh QQQ/SPY prices ended.
QQQ and SPY finish nearly tied near +0.88% after a premarket climb amid CPI and shipping stress
QQQ rose 0.87% and SPY 0.88%, leaving SPY ahead by less than 0.01 percentage points. Most of the advance formed before the open, while regular trading and the post-close stretch were little changed. August CPI accelerated and consumer inflation expectations rose, while reports on Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and tighter U.S. tanker-protection schedules kept energy routes in focus. Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue growth and a prospective Nvidia investment in Anthropic extended the AI backdrop overnight.
Fed hike leaves QQQ up 0.70% and SPY flat as Russia sanctions and Hormuz traffic add energy risk
QQQ gained 0.70% and led SPY by 0.70 percentage point, while SPY was essentially flat. Both rose early, fell during regular trading around the Fed's first rate increase in three years and firm inflation projections, then recovered after hours. Strong retail sales and Apple-Nvidia server plans framed the growth side. The House's Russia sanctions bill and an overnight drop in Hormuz commercial traffic to 3 vessels extended the energy and geopolitical risks.
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
Geopolitics
512 related news items · 30 review days
AI
367 related news items · 30 review days
Oil
348 related news items · 30 review days
Semiconductors
155 related news items · 25 review days
Nvidia
82 related news items · 25 review days
FOMC
116 related news items · 24 review days
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
Official event-study dates
No published official-release study date falls inside the current coverage.
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
QQQ trails SPY as 4.8% yields, Hormuz strikes and NVIDIA talks frame a premarket-led decline
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.25% and SPY 0.67%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.58 percentage points. Most of QQQ's decline occurred before the regular open, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8%, manufacturing signals were mixed, U.S.-Iran strikes and constrained Hormuz traffic kept energy risk prominent, and Dell's AI-server outlook was followed overnight by NVIDIA's reported Hugging Face talks. No fresh public trades were observed after 20:00 ET, so overnight prices were unchanged.
SPY gains 0.47% and leads QQQ as softer ADP meets Broadcom AI strength and overnight fuel stress
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.28% and SPY 0.47%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.19 percentage point. QQQ opened 0.19% below its prior close while SPY was essentially flat, then each added about 0.41 percentage point during regular trading. Softer ADP hiring and Fed inflation signals framed the macro backdrop. Possible new chip tariffs preceded Broadcom's higher AI revenue guidance and Microsoft's Azure disclosure changes after the close. Overnight reports showed Asian LNG at a more than three-year high, only 6 Hormuz passages versus a ten-day average near 13, and U.S. diesel near a record. No fresh public trades were observed after 20:00 ET, so the overnight ETF levels were unchanged.
Broad session gains leave QQQ 0.11 points ahead as services firm and Nvidia expands
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was up 1.10% and SPY 0.99%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.11 percentage point. Both opened higher, then QQQ added 0.84 point during regular trading versus SPY's 0.62 and both held most gains after hours. Firm services data and Waller's softer inflation tone framed the macro backdrop. Nvidia's Hugging Face purchase and Microsoft's reorganization led the technology context. Overnight, Micron outlined an HBM expansion, Norway's fund proposed cutting nearly $80 billion of Treasury exposure, Hormuz traffic remained subdued and U.S. diesel reached a record. With no fresh public ETF trades after 20:00 ET, overnight levels were unchanged.
QQQ ends flat ahead of falling SPY as hot payrolls hit broad stocks and memory shares hold up
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was little changed at -0.02% while SPY fell 0.48%, leaving QQQ 0.46 percentage point ahead. Hotter payrolls lifted September hike pricing and coincided with lower index futures, while Micron and SanDisk strength helped technology shares hold up. Oil and geopolitical risk stayed prominent as an Iranian tanker near Kharg Island was reported hit overnight.
Gulf attacks, oil-supply strain and technology updates shape the closed Saturday
U.S. markets were closed, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday's regular closes and neither led. U.S. and Iranian statements described attacks on tankers and naval assets, while UKMTO reported attacks on merchant vessels in Gulf waters. TankerTrackers said crude exports from several Middle Eastern producers had fallen sharply, and sources said OPEC+ would keep October output policy unchanged. Tesla's Robotaxi timetable, Microsoft's reporting reorganization and the composition of August payroll gains added technology and labor-market context.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Hormuz transit, Fed-hike odds and major technology stories lead Sunday's closed-market agenda
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's regular closes with neither ahead. Iran announced plans for a restricted zone outside Hormuz, Kpler's 10-day average put daily cargo-ship traffic at 10, the lowest since May, and Iran said it and Oman were close to a safe-navigation corridor agreement. CME FedWatch put the probability of a September 25-basis-point hike at 58.3%. Nvidia's Jensen Huang said GPT-6 Astra was trained on more than 100,000 Grace Blackwell NVLink72 systems, while authorities reported at least five deaths after an Amazon cargo-plane accident in Miami.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Labor Day closes U.S. markets as Saudi energy attacks and AI capacity deals dominate
U.S. markets were closed for Labor Day, so QQQ and SPY held Friday's regular closes with neither ahead. Saudi Arabia said Houthi attacks set energy sites ablaze and temporarily interrupted some operations. An earlier Jizan refinery attack report coincided with five-minute gains of $0.59 in WTI and $0.62 in Brent. U.S. Central Command said 94 merchant ships were rerouted, three disabled and two boarded. Technology news included Anthropic's estimated $517 billion of compute commitments, a 22% rise in H100 rental prices and a reported Apple-Kioxia NAND agreement.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ surrenders an early gain but leads SPY as Qualcomm-Amazon chips meet Hormuz oil stress
QQQ opened 0.33% above the prior close but ended down 0.22%. SPY opened down 0.12% and finished down 0.62%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.40 percentage points. Qualcomm and Amazon's custom-chip agreement and Microsoft's $100 billion annualized Azure pace kept AI infrastructure prominent. U.S. strikes on Iranian oil transports, Iran's retaliation claim, below-normal Hormuz traffic and Brent's later return to $100 kept energy and geopolitical risk prominent. Canada-U.S. tariff retaliation added a separate trade-policy theme.
Modest losses leave QQQ 0.11 points ahead of SPY amid Gulf, Treasury and chip developments
QQQ ended down 0.26% and SPY lost 0.37%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.11 percentage point. QQQ changed little after its 0.26% lower open, while SPY extended its decline during regular trading and partly recovered after hours. Gulf shipping attacks and quantified Middle East oil outages kept energy risk prominent. Treasury and Amazon financing, Apple's A20 launch, TSMC's August revenue, and diverging North American and China trade signals rounded out the context.
Hot PPI and $100 oil frame a broad decline, with QQQ lagging SPY
QQQ fell 1.31% and SPY lost 0.64%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.67 percentage points. Most weakness developed before the open, while the regular session was nearly steady and QQQ slipped another 0.26 percentage points after hours. Hot producer prices, a smaller-than-maximum Treasury buyback, oil above $100 and Oracle's cloud-contract update were the main contexts, with overnight Hormuz traffic data extending the energy-risk story.
QQQ and SPY finish nearly tied near +0.88% after a premarket climb amid CPI and shipping stress
QQQ rose 0.87% and SPY 0.88%, leaving SPY ahead by less than 0.01 percentage points. Most of the advance formed before the open, while regular trading and the post-close stretch were little changed. August CPI accelerated and consumer inflation expectations rose, while reports on Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and tighter U.S. tanker-protection schedules kept energy routes in focus. Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue growth and a prospective Nvidia investment in Anthropic extended the AI backdrop overnight.
QQQ and SPY hold Friday's closes as Gulf vessel reports and AI commitments arrive
US markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's carried closes with neither ahead. A Houthi strike claim and vessel-attack reports kept Gulf shipping in focus. OpenAI backed independent AI evaluator access, while Nasdaq simulation indicated a higher SpaceX index weight and Tesla gained US EV share despite lower sales.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Saudi pipeline outage threatens exports as a Hormuz tanker burns on closed-market Sunday
U.S. equities were closed Sunday, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday’s closes. Sources warned that the Saudi pipeline outage could remove up to 4% of global oil supply, and a loaded tanker was struck in Hormuz. CME FedWatch priced an 86.2% chance of a September rate hike. Anthropic reportedly signed a $13.7 billion compute deal, while Iran later said the planned Oman meeting had been canceled.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ recovers from a 1.68% opening drop but trails SPY as Treasury yields breach 5%
QQQ fell 0.74% and SPY fell 0.41%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.32 percentage points. Both recovered from deeper opening losses. QQQ gained 0.88 percentage points during regular trading versus 0.27 for SPY. A Reuters poll showed 86 of 101 economists expected a September rate increase, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields later reached 5.02% and 5.40%. Major technology users tightened AI-model safeguards. Saudi pipeline repairs, limited tanker capacity and a late report of falling Hormuz traffic kept energy-route risk prominent.
QQQ slips more than SPY as Hormuz bottlenecks and UK inflation sustain oil-rate pressure
QQQ fell 0.55% and SPY fell 0.35%, so SPY led by 0.21 percentage point. Both recovered before the open, then weakened during regular trading and changed little after the close. Saudi export disruptions, oil-linked Treasury yields and the CBO's inflation estimate framed the session. Overnight data showing thin Hormuz traffic, firmer UK inflation and SK Hynix-Intel talks extended the energy and AI-chip backdrop.
Fed hike leaves QQQ up 0.70% and SPY flat as Russia sanctions and Hormuz traffic add energy risk
QQQ gained 0.70% and led SPY by 0.70 percentage point, while SPY was essentially flat. Both rose early, fell during regular trading around the Fed's first rate increase in three years and firm inflation projections, then recovered after hours. Strong retail sales and Apple-Nvidia server plans framed the growth side. The House's Russia sanctions bill and an overnight drop in Hormuz commercial traffic to 3 vessels extended the energy and geopolitical risks.
QQQ keeps a 0.51-point lead after a gap higher as claims hit 196,000 and memory stays tight
QQQ gained 1.57% and finished 0.51 percentage point ahead of SPY, which rose 1.06%. Both gapped higher. QQQ added modestly during regular trading and eased after hours, while SPY softened from the open but held most of its gain. Initial claims at 196,000 and tight AI-memory supply framed the strength. Mortgage rates at 6.95% and disrupted shipping remained constraints. Overnight, a $25 billion Arm-backed SoftBank loan extended the AI-investment theme, while Saudi sales of about 60 million barrels and two LNG cargoes through Hormuz pointed to partial energy-supply relief.
Midday rebound lifts QQQ 0.72% while SPY finishes flat as AI deals and Red Sea risk frame the day
QQQ finished 0.72% above its prior regular close while SPY was essentially flat at +0.05%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.67 percentage point after both recovered from midday lows. NScale's Anthropic GPU agreements and Fed remarks on AI capital demand framed the growth and rates backdrop. Saudi supply disruption and U.S.-Houthi talks shaped energy risk, while later reports on Anthropic's product and IPO timing and Macron's Hormuz outlook extended the overnight picture.
U.S. markets stay closed as Hormuz signals diverge and Saudi defenses tighten
QQQ and SPY retained Friday's closes while U.S. markets were shut. U.S. Central Command said the main Hormuz channel had been cleared of mines, but Iran later said the strait would remain closed until its conditions were met. Houthi attack claims, Saudi interception reports, U.S. embassy alerts and Turkey's defense commitment kept regional security and oil-route risk in focus.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Record diesel prices, U.S.-China dialogue and AI spending frame a closed Sunday
QQQ and SPY retained Friday's closes because U.S. markets were shut. U.S. diesel rose to a record $6.505 per gallon, while U.S.-China talks covered trade, investment and AI. Shipping through Hormuz continued under U.S. Navy assistance and Iran reportedly offered war-end terms via Qatar. AI headlines included a $60 billion to $70 billion custom-ASIC estimate, while U.K. and U.S. regulators intensified reviews of banks' exposure to trading firms.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ gaps higher and gains 2.99% as AMD tops $1 trillion, while late Hormuz diplomacy unfolds
QQQ and SPY opened above their prior closes and extended their gains during regular trading. At the last available prices, carried through the overnight segment, QQQ was up 2.99% and SPY 1.59%, leaving QQQ ahead by 1.39 percentage points. AMD's move above a $1 trillion market value, Meta and Nvidia AI developments, and SpaceX's increased Nasdaq-100 weight framed the technology-led advance. Brent crude falling below $100 was followed later by U.K. support for Saudi defenses, Franco-U.S. coordination on Hormuz navigation, and informal assurances that Yanbu crude loading could resume.
QQQ pulls ahead of nearly flat SPY amid OpenAI model launch and unresolved Hormuz talks
QQQ rose 0.92% from the prior regular close through next-day 04:00 ET, while SPY was essentially flat, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.89 percentage points. Most of the gap developed during regular trading. OpenAI’s model launch, Barkin’s broad-inflation warning, and shifting Hormuz and oil-supply reports framed the day. Saudi oil loading was reported overnight, after the last observed ETF prices at 20:00 ET.
QQQ lags SPY after a morning slide as strong PMI sharpens rate focus
QQQ fell 0.89% and SPY 0.78% from the prior regular close, leaving SPY ahead by 0.11 percentage points. September manufacturing PMI exceeded estimates and Fed Governor Barr raised the possibility of more hikes. Overnight, Japan's 10-year bond yield reached its highest since 1996. Hormuz traffic stayed thin, while Saudi oil sales to Asia offered supply context. META also unveiled a portable AI device.
QQQ and SPY trim opening losses amid a nine-ship Hormuz traffic tally
By next-day 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.24% and SPY 0.25% after both recovered much of their opening losses, leaving them nearly even. The 30-year Treasury yield reached a 22-year high and August new-home sales exceeded estimates. A Houthi claim of an attack on Saudi oil facilities contrasted with Iran’s conditional Strait reopening offer, while a later report counted just nine vessels crossing Hormuz on Thursday. Anthropic’s $12 billion Akamai agreement and Oracle’s power-related data center obligations added AI infrastructure context.
SPY leads QQQ after morning dip amid Michigan inflation data and Iran’s ceasefire rejection
QQQ rose 0.58% and SPY 0.63% from the previous regular close, leaving SPY 0.05 percentage points ahead after both recovered from morning lows. Michigan sentiment was 48.1 against 47.8 expected, while one-year inflation expectations reached 4.6%. Overnight, a report said Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire plan. Apple faced a patent verdict of more than $5.7 billion, and China and the United States announced eight outcomes covering trade, Iran and AI.
U.S. markets shut Saturday as Hormuz terms and a reported tariff deal unfold
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday’s carried close. Trump said he rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal, while Iran kept reopening conditional and the U.S. energy secretary described military-assisted shipments. Libya reported that a previously closed oil pipeline resumed flow. Benzinga reported a U.S.-China tariff arrangement, and Axios reported an AI safety investigation.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
With U.S. trading paused Sunday, reports point to Hormuz missile fire and chip expansion
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, so QQQ and SPY retain Friday’s close as a flat reference. An attributed report said a missile was fired at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump anticipated further Iran talks and considered a U.S. diesel export ban. Bessent urged the Fed to keep an open mind on rates, and reports of TSMC 2nm expansion and possible Nvidia chip sales in China added technology supply context.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ falls more than SPY amid Cook's warning and Australia's overnight rate hike
At the last fresh prices at 20:00 ET, QQQ was down 1.00% and SPY was down 0.72% from the prior regular close. Both opened lower, and QQQ's deeper regular-session drop left SPY ahead by 0.28 percentage points. Cook described inflation pressure from AI investment and the Middle East, while Iranian and U.S. officials gave opposing accounts of Hormuz access. Nvidia's larger buyback and AMD's World Labs deal added technology context. Australia's central bank raised rates overnight, after fresh QQQ/SPY prices ended.
QQQ keeps its after-hours lead as Australian inflation and a Hormuz draft emerge overnight
At the last fresh prices at 20:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.51% and SPY up 0.06% from the prior regular close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.45 percentage points. Both eased during regular trading and recovered after hours. Consumer confidence and job openings missed estimates, while Williams said another rate increase this year remained possible without urgency. OpenAI launched GPT-6.1 Sol. After fresh ETF prices ended, mediators circulated a draft on Hormuz shipping and Australia reported elevated inflation.
Softer PCE and Micron orders frame QQQ's lead as SPY fades in regular trading
At the last fresh ETF prices at 20:00 ET, QQQ was up 0.66% and SPY 0.18% from the prior regular close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.48 percentage points. SPY turned negative during regular trading while QQQ stayed positive, then both recovered after hours. August PCE was below estimates, while Chicago PMI was stronger. Micron’s first-quarter outlook and its later $150 billion order book extended the chip story. CENTCOM reported 125 ship reroutings under the Iran blockade, and the U.S. 10-year yield later reached 5.33%. The overnight QQQ/SPY curve carries the last fresh prices.