October 2026
Replay October 2026 so far through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 24
- Trading days
- 18
- News
- 783
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -2.50% and SPY at +0.92% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the latest trading-day close available this month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
QQQ’s cash-session rise outpaces SPY alongside a confidence beat and Meta’s $25 billion sale
QQQ rose 1.40% and SPY gained 0.60% by 04:00 ET, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.80 percentage points. Most of the gap formed during regular trading. Consumer confidence and new-home sales beat expectations, while durable-goods orders missed. Meta’s share sale and AMD AI partnership, alongside reports of a Saudi oil-hub fire, framed the day. A later report said OpenAI plans to buy Google AI chips, after the carried QQQ/SPY series had stopped recording new trades.
QQQ loses ground through cash trading, trailing SPY amid Saudi oil strikes and Meta AI commitments
QQQ fell 3.05% and SPY fell 1.16% from the prior close, leaving SPY ahead by 1.88 percentage points. QQQ lost more ground during regular trading and slipped again after the close. Saudi oil-field attacks and jobless claims of 194,000 versus 200,000 expected provided risk and labor context. Meta’s $825 billion AI commitments, Western Digital’s guidance and a reported OpenAI funding round framed technology spending. After 20:00 ET, the overnight curve carries the last observed QQQ/SPY prices.
Payroll miss leaves QQQ ahead of SPY as Iran warnings extend overnight risk
QQQ rose 1.01% and SPY 0.77% from the prior close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.25 percentage point. The premarket rise eased in regular trading after September payrolls fell short of forecasts. Tesla deliveries and Nvidia’s buyback added company context, while the G7 fuel-reserve decision and tanker reports framed energy risk. An Iran retaliation warning arrived late overnight, when the tracked price series was carrying the 20:00 ET levels.
QQQ leads SPY after a midday dip, with ISM data and overnight Broadcom funding in view
QQQ gained 0.52% and SPY rose 0.28%, leaving QQQ 0.24 percentage points ahead. Both dipped below the prior close around late morning, then recovered, with QQQ adding more after the close. Initial jobless claims came in below estimates, while ISM manufacturing missed its forecast. Logan called for further rate increases, and a reported tanker strike added Hormuz shipping risk. Overnight reports described Broadcom chip funding and a French fuel-reserve proposal. QQQ and SPY prices were carried after 20:00 ET, so those later reports have no fresh price comparison.
SPY takes the lead as QQQ's early edge fades, with trade data and Hormuz shipping risk in view
QQQ rose 0.48% and SPY rose 0.65%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.17 percentage points. QQQ had the stronger premarket rise, then lost relative ground during regular trading. The wider U.S. trade deficit, Google's nuclear-power deal and Marvell's targets, Hormuz shipping attacks, and India's overnight rate increase shaped the news backdrop.
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
Geopolitics
251 related news items · 24 review days
Oil
214 related news items · 24 review days
Semiconductors
111 related news items · 22 review days
AI
187 related news items · 21 review days
Nvidia
63 related news items · 20 review days
42 related news items · 17 review days
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
Official event-study dates
No published official-release study date falls inside the current coverage.
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
QQQ leads SPY after a midday dip, with ISM data and overnight Broadcom funding in view
QQQ gained 0.52% and SPY rose 0.28%, leaving QQQ 0.24 percentage points ahead. Both dipped below the prior close around late morning, then recovered, with QQQ adding more after the close. Initial jobless claims came in below estimates, while ISM manufacturing missed its forecast. Logan called for further rate increases, and a reported tanker strike added Hormuz shipping risk. Overnight reports described Broadcom chip funding and a French fuel-reserve proposal. QQQ and SPY prices were carried after 20:00 ET, so those later reports have no fresh price comparison.
Payroll miss leaves QQQ ahead of SPY as Iran warnings extend overnight risk
QQQ rose 1.01% and SPY 0.77% from the prior close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.25 percentage point. The premarket rise eased in regular trading after September payrolls fell short of forecasts. Tesla deliveries and Nvidia’s buyback added company context, while the G7 fuel-reserve decision and tanker reports framed energy risk. An Iran retaliation warning arrived late overnight, when the tracked price series was carrying the 20:00 ET levels.
U.S. equities are closed Saturday as a Hormuz tanker report and OPEC+ plan emerge
QQQ and SPY had no Saturday session, and the chart carries Friday’s close. A tanker damage report and Iran’s reopening conditions kept Hormuz in focus, while OPEC+ delegates signaled unchanged November output. The White House formed an AI risk task force, and Amazon pledged more than $1 billion for data-center communities.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
SPY takes the lead as QQQ's early edge fades, with trade data and Hormuz shipping risk in view
QQQ rose 0.48% and SPY rose 0.65%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.17 percentage points. QQQ had the stronger premarket rise, then lost relative ground during regular trading. The wider U.S. trade deficit, Google's nuclear-power deal and Marvell's targets, Hormuz shipping attacks, and India's overnight rate increase shaped the news backdrop.
QQQ recovers from a deeper early loss and edges SPY amid Fed minutes and TSMC revenue
At the final 04:00 ET reading, QQQ was down 0.14% and SPY 0.23% from the prior regular close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.08 percentage point. Both opened lower, then recovered during regular trading, with QQQ making the stronger rebound. Fed minutes kept another rate increase this year in view, while New York Fed inflation expectations rose. Hormuz tanker reports and later Kpler traffic data sharpened the shipping context. Overnight, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue above market expectations.
Midday QQQ selloff widens SPY's lead amid OpenAI revenue reports and Hormuz warnings
At the final 04:00 ET reading, QQQ was down 1.32% and SPY 0.36% from the prior regular close, leaving SPY ahead by 0.96 percentage point. Both opened lower and reached their regular-session lows near 13:30 ET. QQQ recovered part of its deeper decline but still lagged. OpenAI’s September annualized revenue was reported near $50 billion, and a later report projected at least $70 billion by year-end. New York Fed inflation expectations and a $2 trillion fiscal-deficit estimate kept rates in view. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil vessels and a later Iranian military statement sustained the Hormuz backdrop. Overnight, Nikkei reported that Apple cut iPhone 18 Pro orders amid weak demand.
QQQ and SPY rise, with SPY narrowly ahead amid weak Michigan sentiment and an Apple order update
QQQ finished up 0.51% and SPY 0.60%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.09 percentage points. QQQ opened with the larger gain, but SPY strengthened during regular trading while QQQ eased. October Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 46.3 versus 47.8 expected, alongside a Fed survey showing heavier household debt burdens. Gulf oil shut-ins and the Russian diesel license provided contrasting fuel-supply context. Later reporting said Apple increased iPhone Duo orders while total iPhone 18 Pro series orders were unchanged, adding detail to the earlier component-cut report. Treasury Secretary Bessent also outlined a fiscal consolidation plan expected after the midterm elections.
Saturday brings no U.S. stock session but new Riyadh and Gulf shipping reports
QQQ and SPY did not trade Saturday. The chart carries Friday’s closes of 751.24 and 778.53. Saudi authorities reported casualties at Riyadh airport, while U.S. forces described striking a cargo ship near Iran. The U.S. approved an emergency oil-reserve swap, and Nvidia was reported to be in early talks with Reflection AI.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
With U.S. stocks closed Sunday, Gulf shipping and AI reports set the day's context
QQQ and SPY did not trade Sunday. The chart carries Friday's closes of 751.24 and 778.53. Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi airports and energy sites, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported another tanker mine incident in Hormuz. A White House official called the Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire a potential agreement. Amazon was reported to be in acquisition talks, while Microsoft introduced a new decision model.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ gives up an early gain and trails SPY with Hammack rate remarks and Hormuz attacks in view
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.98% and SPY 0.16%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.82 percentage points. QQQ gave back a premarket rise and weakened through regular and after-hours trading. Hammack favored smaller, more frequent rate hikes, while Hormuz tanker reports and higher shipping costs framed energy risk. Microsoft outlined a larger Maia AI-chip deployment. Overnight, the IMF described a conditional oil-and-growth shock and Bulgaria reported drone strikes on two Black Sea ships.
SPY stays near flat while QQQ remains lower, with home sales and ASML results in view
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 0.42% and SPY 0.07%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.36 percentage points. QQQ recovered part of its weak opening gap during regular trading, then softened after hours. September home sales exceeded estimates and Collins kept rate-rise risk in view. Meta and Google AI updates, Hormuz tanker rerouting, and ASML’s overnight sales report supplied the other main contexts.
QQQ slides further than SPY amid hotter CPI, Hormuz ship reports and TSMC results
By 04:00 ET, QQQ was down 2.89% and SPY 1.40%, leaving SPY ahead by 1.49 percentage points. Both opened lower, and QQQ extended its decline into after-hours trading. September CPI exceeded expectations, while Hormuz ship reports and the Fed Beige Book added context during the session. Anthropic revenue and TSMC earnings and guidance followed later.
SPY turns positive while QQQ stays lower amid hot PPI and AI funding concerns
Both ETFs opened lower. SPY ended 0.09% above its prior regular close, while QQQ remained 0.63% below it, leaving SPY 0.73 percentage points ahead. September PPI and retail sales exceeded estimates. An oil reserve release, contrasting Hormuz transit accounts, and a reported pullback in Anthropic valuation expectations added context through the evening.
Hot import prices and new tanker reports frame a deeper QQQ slide than SPY
QQQ fell 2.77% and SPY fell 1.36%, leaving QQQ 1.40 percentage points behind after most of the decline developed during regular trading. September import prices and industrial production exceeded estimates, and the Treasury reported a wider fiscal deficit. A later report on Anthropic chip financing carried a double-digit yield, while an earlier tanker strike and a separate overnight mine report kept Hormuz shipping risk in view.
Saturday market closure leaves QQQ and SPY at Friday's close amid Hormuz and Russia-policy reports
U.S. equities did not trade Saturday, so QQQ and SPY retained Friday's closes. UK maritime notices described two tanker attacks near Saudi Arabia. U.S. military accounts said Hormuz remained open, while 138 merchant ships had been diverted under blockade measures. A Russia-related tariff waiver was followed by a report that a separate sanctions waiver could remain undecided for up to 60 days. Disney also outlined a $60 million annual Character.AI staffing plan.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
U.S. stocks stay closed Sunday as Hormuz warnings and China growth figures arrive
U.S. equities did not trade Sunday, so QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's regular close. Iran said a conditional plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained in effect, then its navy released video it said showed a tanker striking a mine. A U.S. Embassy alert warned of possible regional escalation. Reported China Q3 GDP and September industrial production beat estimates, while a South Korean report described a change in Nvidia's memory supply chain.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ leads SPY higher, then eases from midday highs amid AI data-center and Hormuz reports
QQQ gained 1.30% and SPY rose 0.56% from the prior close, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.74 percentage points after both eased from late-morning highs. A weak U.S. homebuilder-confidence reading, Microsoft’s withdrawal from a U.K. data-center deal and later Nscale-Anthropic talks framed the technology side. Middle East oil-flow and Saudi energy-site reports added a separate shipping-risk context that continued overnight.
Housing misses and Japan’s export growth frame QQQ’s rebound past SPY
Both ETFs opened lower, then rose by the last observed trades at 20:00 ET. QQQ gained 0.63% and SPY 0.55%, with QQQ ahead by 0.07 percentage points after a stronger after-hours climb. September housing starts and pending home sales missed estimates. Nvidia chip orders, Anthropic’s computing plan, and U.S. statements on Hormuz supplied further context. Overnight, Japan reported export growth led in part by chips, and Micron reached a Taiwan labor agreement after QQQ/SPY trading had ceased.
QQQ and SPY keep small gains after a post-close pullback amid Meta capex and Hormuz vessel reports
QQQ finished up 0.25% and SPY rose 0.05%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.20 percentage points after both gave back much of their regular-session gains. OpenAI’s Google Cloud expansion added AI platform context, while Meta and Tesla beat quarterly estimates and Meta projected $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026 capital spending. A U.S. heating-oil reserve proposal and Iran’s report of three vessels hitting mines west of Hormuz added fuel-supply and shipping context. No new QQQ/SPY price observations were available after 20:00 ET, and the overnight curve carries those levels forward.
QQQ loses ground through cash trading, trailing SPY amid Saudi oil strikes and Meta AI commitments
QQQ fell 3.05% and SPY fell 1.16% from the prior close, leaving SPY ahead by 1.88 percentage points. QQQ lost more ground during regular trading and slipped again after the close. Saudi oil-field attacks and jobless claims of 194,000 versus 200,000 expected provided risk and labor context. Meta’s $825 billion AI commitments, Western Digital’s guidance and a reported OpenAI funding round framed technology spending. After 20:00 ET, the overnight curve carries the last observed QQQ/SPY prices.
QQQ keeps a small gain while SPY falls, with a PMI beat and Riyadh missile report
QQQ opened lower, reached a 0.61% gain at its 10:54 ET high, then ended 0.06% above the prior close. SPY ended 0.37% lower, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.43 percentage points. U.S. manufacturing PMI was 56.0 versus 55.4 expected, and Michigan sentiment was 48.0 versus 46.3 expected. Tanker incidents around Hormuz framed shipping risk. After 20:00 ET, reports on AWS capacity and a missile interception near Riyadh added new context, while the curve carried the last observed prices through 04:00 ET.
Saudi oil-site claims and Fed odds mark a closed Sunday for U.S. stocks
U.S. cash markets were closed Sunday, so QQQ and SPY carried their October 23 closes. Houthi claims about Saudi energy sites and a U.S. embassy evacuation order framed regional risk. A conditional report on U.S. Iran-operation readiness, CME rate odds and a Nvidia memory-supply report added further context.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ widens its lead over SPY into after-hours as Meta and Anthropic financing headlines accumulate
QQQ rose 1.43% and SPY gained 0.85%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.58 percentage points at the final 04:00 ET endpoint. The lead grew through regular trading and after-hours. Meta and Anthropic financing reports, a higher Dallas Fed manufacturing reading, and proposed U.S.-Iran talks around Hormuz provide the main news context. Later overnight AI reports arrived without new QQQ/SPY trades in the carried price series.
QQQ’s cash-session rise outpaces SPY alongside a confidence beat and Meta’s $25 billion sale
QQQ rose 1.40% and SPY gained 0.60% by 04:00 ET, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.80 percentage points. Most of the gap formed during regular trading. Consumer confidence and new-home sales beat expectations, while durable-goods orders missed. Meta’s share sale and AMD AI partnership, alongside reports of a Saudi oil-hub fire, framed the day. A later report said OpenAI plans to buy Google AI chips, after the carried QQQ/SPY series had stopped recording new trades.