Official U.S. CPI releaseThu, Sep 11August 2025
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
September 2025
Replay September 2025 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 30
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 925
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Sep 1, 2025 — Sep 30, 2025
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at +5.25% and SPY at +3.26% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ session
QQQ rises 1.08% with services data, rate signals and Broadcom in focus
QQQ ended 1.08% above the previous close and SPY gained 0.89%, with QQQ ahead by 0.19 percentage points. Initial claims and ADP employment pointed to softer labor conditions, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. Williams discussed gradual rate cuts, Broadcom reported stronger quarterly revenue and a major AI-chip order, and U.S.-Japan trade policy remained in view. The measured 15-minute moves after the selected daytime releases were generally limited.
3 session driversLabor and services data5 key headlinesISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For August 52.0 Vs 50.9 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.91%
SPY+0.82%
Weakest QQQ sessionWeakest SPY session
Opening selloff narrows as manufacturing and tech policy frame nearly even losses
QQQ fell 0.59% and SPY lost 0.60%, leaving technology barely ahead after opening gaps of 1.59% and 1.17%. Risk-off pressure, weak ISM manufacturing, semiconductor policy, and Google's search remedies framed the day.
3 session driversRisk and liquidity5 key headlines'US Pulls TSMC's Waiver for China Shipments of Chip Supplies' - Bloomberg News
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.84%
SPY-0.73%
Strongest SPY session
SPY leads QQQ as inflation, labor and policy signals accompany broad gains
SPY gained 0.84% and QQQ rose 0.63%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.21 percentage points. Both finished above their opening gains. August CPI matched the annual estimate but exceeded the monthly forecast, while initial jobless claims were higher than expected. Treasury, China-chip policy and the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership supplied additional market context.
3 session driversInflation and labor data5 key headlinesUS CPI (YoY) (Aug) +2.9% Vs +2.9% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.58%
SPY+0.83%
Largest QQQ–SPY divergence
AI infrastructure and policy headlines accompany a 0.73% QQQ rise
QQQ rose 0.73% and SPY gained 0.18%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.55 percentage points. Reports on Samsung's Nvidia-qualified memory, OpenAI's planned backup-server spending and Oracle-Meta cloud talks formed the day's AI-infrastructure cluster. A Xi-Trump call, a new H-1B visa fee and Federal Reserve and government-funding updates supplied the policy backdrop.
3 session driversAI infrastructure and capacity5 key headlinesSamsung's 12-Layer HBM3E Reportedly Passes Nvidia Qualification
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.69%
SPY+0.21%
Strongest intraday rebound
QQQ and SPY gain about 0.23% amid a Fed cut and China chip restrictions
QQQ rose 0.24% and SPY gained 0.23%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.01 percentage points. The Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut and labor-risk guidance dominated the intraday policy context, while Chinese restrictions on Nvidia AI-chip purchases and corporate investment and energy agreements broadened the day's news mix.
2 session driversFederal Reserve policy4 key headlinesFed cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.21%
SPY-0.12%
Calmest session
QQQ holds near flat as SPY slips 0.09% on data and technology-policy updates
QQQ slipped 0.02% and finished essentially flat, while SPY fell 0.09%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.08 percentage points. Stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production, TikTok and advanced-chip policy developments, and a Federal Reserve appointment shaped the day's context.
3 session driversEconomic data6 key headlinesExpress News | US August Retail Sales MoM +0.6% Vs +0.2% Forecast, Prior +0.5%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.09%
SPY-0.15%
Busiest news day
Technology leads broad gains as labor data, AI investment, and trade policy share focus
QQQ rose 0.71% and SPY gained 0.49%, leaving technology ahead by 0.23 percentage points. Softer job openings and a subdued Beige Book, major technology developments, sovereign AI demand, and tariff policy framed the session.
4 session driversLabor and Fed signals5 key headlinesU.S. Labor Market Data: July JOLTS Job Openings Were 7.181M vs. 7.380M Expected
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.77%
SPY+0.53%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01
AI
159 related news items · 28 review days
13.7%+0.9 pp vs prior 3 months
02Semiconductors
95 related news items · 28 review days
8.2%+0.7 pp vs prior 3 months
03Tesla
72 related news items · 27 review days
6.2%+0.2 pp vs prior 3 months
04China
108 related news items · 25 review days
9.3%+1.6 pp vs prior 3 months
05FOMC
95 related news items · 25 review days
8.2%+0.0 pp vs prior 3 months
06Tariffs
83 related news items · 24 review days
7.2%-4.8 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
India tariff signals and tech pressures shape Labor Day
With U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, the day's context centered on Trump's claim that India offered zero tariffs, Bessent's comments on Federal Reserve independence, Nvidia's delayed access to TSMC's initial 2nm capacity, and further weakness in Tesla's European registrations.
3 session driversIndia tariff signal4 key headlinesTrump Says India Offered to Cut Tariffs to Zero but Calls the Move Too Late
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Opening selloff narrows as manufacturing and tech policy frame nearly even losses
QQQ fell 0.59% and SPY lost 0.60%, leaving technology barely ahead after opening gaps of 1.59% and 1.17%. Risk-off pressure, weak ISM manufacturing, semiconductor policy, and Google's search remedies framed the day.
3 session driversRisk and liquidity5 key headlines'US Pulls TSMC's Waiver for China Shipments of Chip Supplies' - Bloomberg News
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.84%
SPY-0.73%
Technology leads broad gains as labor data, AI investment, and trade policy share focus
QQQ rose 0.71% and SPY gained 0.49%, leaving technology ahead by 0.23 percentage points. Softer job openings and a subdued Beige Book, major technology developments, sovereign AI demand, and tariff policy framed the session.
4 session driversLabor and Fed signals5 key headlinesU.S. Labor Market Data: July JOLTS Job Openings Were 7.181M vs. 7.380M Expected
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.77%
SPY+0.53%
QQQ rises 1.08% with services data, rate signals and Broadcom in focus
QQQ ended 1.08% above the previous close and SPY gained 0.89%, with QQQ ahead by 0.19 percentage points. Initial claims and ADP employment pointed to softer labor conditions, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. Williams discussed gradual rate cuts, Broadcom reported stronger quarterly revenue and a major AI-chip order, and U.S.-Japan trade policy remained in view. The measured 15-minute moves after the selected daytime releases were generally limited.
3 session driversLabor and services data5 key headlinesISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For August 52.0 Vs 50.9 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.91%
SPY+0.82%
QQQ ends nearly flat while SPY falls 0.49% as weak payrolls and tech policy dominate
QQQ gave back a 0.91% opening gain to finish 0.06% below the previous close, while SPY fell 0.49%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.43 percentage points. August payrolls rose only 22,000 versus 75,000 expected and unemployment reached 4.3%, while average hourly earnings matched estimates. Lululemon cut guidance amid weak U.S. sales and tariff pressure, and the EU fined Google €2.95 billion. Meta outlined at least $600 billion of U.S. investment through 2028, Tesla proposed a compensation plan potentially worth about $1 trillion, and Robinhood and AppLovin were named for S&P 500 inclusion.
3 session driversWeak labor data and rate repricing6 key headlinesExpress News | US Aug. Non-Farm Payrolls +22000 Vs +75000 Forecast, Prior +79000; US Aug. Unemployment Rate 4.3% Vs 4.3% Forecast, Prior 4.2%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.14%
SPY-0.29%
Markets stay closed as Tesla's AI5 chip milestone leads weekend news
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, so QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's closing levels of $576.03 and $647.21. The day's new event was Tesla reaching an AI5 chip design milestone. Tesla said AI5 and AI6 are intended to support artificial-intelligence and autonomous-driving training.
1 session driverTesla custom AI chip development1 key headlineTesla completes AI5 chip design review, Musk calls it an 'epic' product
Market closed · No intraday price curve
U.S.-Japan tariff terms and AI investment lead Sunday's closed-market news
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's closing levels of $576.03 and $647.21. New headlines detailed Japan's $550 billion U.S. investment commitment under the tariff agreement and a report that ASML would become Mistral's largest investor. Japan's second-quarter annualized GDP growth was reported at 2.2%, above the 1.0% estimate.
3 session driversU.S.-Japan tariff investment terms3 key headlinesU.S.-Japan tariff deal puts $550 billion under Trump allocation, with 90% of long-term profits going to the U.S.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ edges ahead as Nasdaq plans, macro data, and AI deals frame modest gains
QQQ gained 0.50% and SPY rose 0.30%, leaving the technology-heavy ETF ahead by 0.20 percentage points. Nasdaq's tokenized-listing proposal and firm consumer-credit data shared attention with stable inflation expectations. After regular trading, large AI infrastructure commitments involving Nebius, Microsoft, ASML, and Mistral broadened the day's technology-deal backdrop.
3 session driversTokenized market structure5 key headlinesNasdaq submits September 8 proposal for tokenized stock listings
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.48%
SPY+0.24%
QQQ and SPY gain 0.35% as payroll revisions meet new AI hardware and cloud targets
QQQ gained 0.35% and SPY rose 0.35%, leaving the two ETFs nearly even. A 910,000-job downward payroll benchmark revision kept labor-market softness in view, while Nvidia's Rubin launch, Apple's iPhone 17 debut, and Google Cloud's $58 billion 2027 revenue target supplied technology-specific context. Both ETFs recovered from mid-morning lows, ended regular trading higher, and extended gains after hours.
3 session driversLabor benchmark revision4 key headlinesUS payrolls revised down by 910,000 through March
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.28%
SPY+0.23%
Softer PPI and policy news frame modest gains as SPY finishes ahead of QQQ
SPY gained 0.39% and QQQ rose 0.13%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.26 percentage points. Both opened more than 0.5% higher, lost ground during regular trading, and recovered modestly after hours. Softer August producer-price readings, tariff and rates developments, and large AI and autonomous-mobility commitments formed the day's main context.
3 session driversProducer prices and rates5 key headlinesExpress News | In August, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.03%
SPY+0.29%
SPY leads QQQ as inflation, labor and policy signals accompany broad gains
SPY gained 0.84% and QQQ rose 0.63%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.21 percentage points. Both finished above their opening gains. August CPI matched the annual estimate but exceeded the monthly forecast, while initial jobless claims were higher than expected. Treasury, China-chip policy and the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership supplied additional market context.
3 session driversInflation and labor data5 key headlinesUS CPI (YoY) (Aug) +2.9% Vs +2.9% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.58%
SPY+0.83%
QQQ gains while SPY stays flat as AI, sentiment and policy news diverge
QQQ rose 0.44% while SPY slipped 0.06%, giving QQQ a 0.50 percentage-point lead. University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 55.4 versus 58 expected, while one-year inflation expectations were 4.8% versus 4.7% expected. Alibaba's Qwen launch, Nvidia's DGX Cloud retrenchment, U.S.-Japan tariff terms and a Google Play court ruling added technology and policy context.
3 session driversConsumer sentiment and inflation expectations5 key headlinesU.S. September consumer sentiment was 55.4 versus 58 expected and fifty-eight point two prior; one-year inflation expectations were four point eight percent
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.44%
SPY-0.03%
Apple Demand and Chip Policy Lead Saturday's Market Headlines
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closes. News centered on more than 7 million iPhone 17 reservations, memory-price increases, China-U.S. technology controls, a planned U.S.-UK technology pact, and Russia-sanctions conditions tied to NATO alignment.
3 session driversConsumer technology demand6 key headlinesApple's Website Strains Under Heavy iPhone 17 Presale Demand
Market closed · No intraday price curve
China Data and U.S.-China Policy Define the Sunday Technology Agenda
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, so QQQ and SPY retained Friday's closing levels. Attention centered on weaker-than-expected China industrial output, a slight rise in unemployment, China-U.S. trade talks, another expected TikTok deadline extension, Penske Media's AI Overviews lawsuit, and Tesla's Cybertruck lineup change.
3 session driversChina economic data6 key headlinesChina August Industrial Production 5.2% vs. 5.7% Estimate; 5.7% Prior
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ rises 0.83% and leads SPY amid Tesla, AI and U.S.-China policy updates
QQQ gained 0.83% and SPY rose 0.50%, leaving the technology-heavy fund ahead by 0.33 percentage points. The day featured Elon Musk’s Tesla share purchase, an Nvidia antitrust probe in China, a U.S.-China TikTok framework, softer New York manufacturing data, and new AI infrastructure and software announcements.
4 session driversManufacturing activity6 key headlinesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) -8.7 Vs 4.3 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.86%
SPY+0.52%
QQQ holds near flat as SPY slips 0.09% on data and technology-policy updates
QQQ slipped 0.02% and finished essentially flat, while SPY fell 0.09%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.08 percentage points. Stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production, TikTok and advanced-chip policy developments, and a Federal Reserve appointment shaped the day's context.
3 session driversEconomic data6 key headlinesExpress News | US August Retail Sales MoM +0.6% Vs +0.2% Forecast, Prior +0.5%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.09%
SPY-0.15%
QQQ and SPY gain about 0.23% amid a Fed cut and China chip restrictions
QQQ rose 0.24% and SPY gained 0.23%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.01 percentage points. The Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut and labor-risk guidance dominated the intraday policy context, while Chinese restrictions on Nvidia AI-chip purchases and corporate investment and energy agreements broadened the day's news mix.
2 session driversFederal Reserve policy4 key headlinesFed cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.21%
SPY-0.12%
NVIDIA-Intel deal and labor data frame a 1.08% QQQ advance
QQQ rose 1.08% and SPY gained 0.64%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.43 percentage points. NVIDIA's $5 billion Intel investment and joint-product plan led a broader semiconductor and AI news cluster. Jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed data supplied the macro backdrop, while tariff litigation, Federal Reserve governance and overnight Bank of Japan policy added legal and central-bank context.
3 session driversSemiconductor and AI partnerships5 key headlinesNVIDIA To Invest $5 Billion In Intel As Companies Plan Joint AI And PC Products
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.91%
SPY+0.47%
AI infrastructure and policy headlines accompany a 0.73% QQQ rise
QQQ rose 0.73% and SPY gained 0.18%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.55 percentage points. Reports on Samsung's Nvidia-qualified memory, OpenAI's planned backup-server spending and Oracle-Meta cloud talks formed the day's AI-infrastructure cluster. A Xi-Trump call, a new H-1B visa fee and Federal Reserve and government-funding updates supplied the policy backdrop.
3 session driversAI infrastructure and capacity5 key headlinesSamsung's 12-Layer HBM3E Reportedly Passes Nvidia Qualification
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.69%
SPY+0.21%
H-1B rules, NATO airspace tensions and iPhone demand shape weekend news
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closes. News centered on a new H-1B fee, urgent return instructions at major technology companies and a later White House clarification. A Russian fighter-jet incursion into Estonian airspace, delayed U.S. consumer-expenditure data and reported iPhone 17 production increases supplied the geopolitical, macro and consumer-technology context.
4 session driversH-1B technology policy5 key headlinesNew H-1B Policy Prompts Silicon Valley Firms to Urge Employees Back to the U.S.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Record Money-Market Holdings, iPhone Output and TikTok Investors Lead Sunday News
U.S. markets were closed on Sunday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's closing levels. Investors continued to hold a record $7.7 trillion in money-market funds. Apple reportedly asked contractors to raise entry-level iPhone 17 output by at least 30%, while named U.S. investors emerged for TikTok's U.S. assets. Reports on AI-server substrate capacity, OpenAI's hiring from Apple, Berkshire Hathaway's exit from BYD and the U.S. government's use of its U.S. Steel golden share rounded out the technology and corporate-policy backdrop.
4 session driversMoney-market liquidity6 key headlinesU.S. Investors Hold Record $7.7 Trillion In Money-Market Funds Amid Rate Cuts
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ and SPY reverse opening losses as Nvidia-OpenAI and Fed updates fill the session
QQQ opened 0.27% below the prior close and finished up 0.48%, while SPY moved from a 0.23% opening decline to a 0.46% gain. Nvidia's planned investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI and reports on next-generation chip development provided an AI and semiconductor backdrop. Fed officials offered differing views on inflation, labor risks and the path toward neutral rates. Late updates included xAI's Grok 4 Fast release and a reported U.S.-China Boeing order negotiation.
3 session driversAI capital and chip development5 key headlinesExpress News | NVIDIA Plans to Invest $100 Billion in OpenAI to Jointly Build AI Data Centers
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.48%
SPY+0.46%
QQQ falls 0.63% as Powell, Micron and AI-investment updates fill Tuesday
QQQ opened 0.02% above the prior close and finished down 0.63%, while SPY opened essentially flat and ended down 0.49%. SPY led by 0.14 percentage points at the end of the session. Powell said employment downside risks prompted the prior week's rate cut, while spending and labor conditions had softened and August 12-month PCE inflation was probably 2.7%. After the close, Micron projected first-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.60 to $3.90 per share and sales of $12.2 billion to $12.8 billion, both above cited estimates. Overnight updates included Micron's 2026 memory roadmap and Alibaba's reported plan to expand AI infrastructure spending.
3 session driversFed policy and economic risks4 key headlinesPowell says spending and labor have softened and 12-month August PCE inflation was probably 2.7%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.67%
SPY-0.54%
QQQ and SPY reverse opening gains as tariffs and rates shape Wednesday
QQQ opened up 0.22% but finished down 0.29%, while SPY moved from a 0.19% opening gain to a 0.23% decline and led by 0.06 percentage points. Strong new-home sales and debate over the rate path shared the day with EU auto tariffs, Micron's earnings beat and large AI infrastructure commitments.
4 session driversGrowth data5 key headlinesU.S. confirms 15% tariffs on EU autos and parts retroactive to August 1
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.36%
SPY-0.33%
Growth surprises and Fed remarks accompany near-0.5% declines in QQQ and SPY
QQQ recovered from an opening decline of 0.65% to finish down 0.49%, while SPY moved from a 0.47% opening decline to a 0.49% loss. The funds ended essentially tied. A concentrated morning release set showed lower-than-forecast jobless claims, stronger GDP and durable-goods orders, and slightly firmer core PCE, while Fed officials offered differing views on the pace of rate cuts.
4 session driversGrowth and inflation data6 key headlinesUS GDP (QoQ) (Q2) +3.8% Vs +3.3% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.43%
SPY-0.48%
SPY finishes 0.62% higher, ahead of QQQ, with PCE and tariff updates in focus
QQQ opened 0.14% higher and finished up 0.44%, while SPY moved from a 0.22% opening gain to a 0.62% advance. SPY led by 0.18 percentage points. Core and headline PCE matched forecasts, personal spending exceeded its estimate, and Michigan consumer sentiment was slightly below expectations. Government funding, pharmaceutical tariffs, and Fed policy remarks added further context during the session.
4 session driversInflation and spending5 key headlinesExpress News | US Aug. Core PCE Price Index YoY +2.90% Vs +2.90% Forecast, Prior +2.90%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.42%
SPY+0.56%
Saturday brings AI investment records, Fed pressure and U.S.-Korea tariff friction
U.S. equities were closed, so QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's regular-session closes. Weekend developments included record-scale data-center construction spending, scrutiny of Meta's AI safeguards, renewed pressure on Federal Reserve leadership, disagreement over South Korea's proposed tariff-deal investment and an approaching U.S. government funding deadline.
4 session driversAI investment and oversight5 key headlinesU.S. Data Center Construction Spending Nearly Matches Private Office-Building Investment
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news turns to shutdown risks, Apple hardware milestones and global policy signals
U.S. equities were closed, so QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's regular-session closes. Sunday developments included quantified economic risks from a possible U.S. government shutdown, reported milestones for Apple's foldable iPhone display and next-generation MacBook Pro, prospective OPEC+ supply growth, hawkish dissent at the Bank of Japan and a surge in used-EV sales before a federal tax-credit deadline.
4 session driversShutdown economic risk6 key headlinesU.S. Government Shutdown Risk Could Cut GDP by 0.2 Percentage Points per Week and Disrupt Data Releases
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ leads SPY higher after both pare opening gains amid Fed, AI and shutdown updates
QQQ rose 0.41% and SPY gained 0.23%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.18 percentage points after both pared larger opening gains. Fed inflation guidance, AI robotics and model launches, shutdown-related data risk and broader Entity List restrictions framed the session.
4 session driversFed inflation path6 key headlinesNVIDIA Partnering With Leading Institutions And Developers Worldwide, Launches Open-Source Newton Physics Engine And Isaac GR00T Model To Advance Humanlike Reasoning In Robots
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.47%
SPY+0.27%
SPY gains 0.15% while QQQ stays flat amid soft data and late shutdown news
SPY rose 0.15% while QQQ was essentially flat, leaving SPY ahead by 0.15 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. Below-estimate activity and confidence data, Fed rate guidance, AI investment and product releases, and the late U.S. government shutdown framed Tuesday.
4 session driversSofter activity data6 key headlinesCB Consumer Confidence For September 94.2 Vs 96.0 Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.27%
SPY+0.37%