August 2025
Replay August 2025 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 31
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 834
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at +0.94% and SPY at +2.05% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
QQQ gains 2.00% as trade relief and AI momentum lift technology shares
QQQ rose 2.00% and SPY gained 1.62%, leaving technology-heavy QQQ ahead by 0.38 percentage points. A reported six-month suspension of EU trade countermeasures coincided with a firm pre-market advance. U.S. durable-goods data, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued investment in AI infrastructure added context through the session.
QQQ falls 2.12% and lags as jobs shock deepens risk
QQQ fell 2.12% and SPY lost 1.72%, leaving QQQ 0.40 percentage points behind. A weak July payroll gain, sharp prior-month revisions, softer manufacturing data, and policy risks around the Fed, labor statistics, and Russia framed the session.
QQQ gains 1.66% as Powell's policy signal frames a broad rally
QQQ rose 1.66% and SPY gained 1.57%, with QQQ leading by 0.10 percentage points. Powell's Jackson Hole comments on a possible policy adjustment anchored the session, while Canada's tariff rollback and Intel's U.S. government investment added trade and industrial-policy context.
QQQ slides 1.56% and trails SPY as Intel policy and mixed data dominate
QQQ fell 1.56% and SPY lost 0.63%, leaving QQQ 0.93 percentage points behind. Mixed housing and retail data, U.S. efforts to take an Intel stake, AI reorganization, and trade scrutiny were the main contexts.
QQQ finishes 0.63% lower with tariffs, Fed minutes and AI in focus
QQQ fell 0.63% and SPY lost 0.31%, leaving QQQ 0.31 percentage points behind. Tariff-policy distinctions, Fed minutes, OpenAI revenue and computing constraints, and Google and Microsoft product-security headlines were prominent contexts.
QQQ slips 0.01% while SPY edges up 0.02% amid housing data and tech scrutiny
QQQ finished essentially flat, down 0.01%, while SPY edged up 0.02% and led by 0.02 percentage points. The August NAHB Housing Market Index missed its estimate. Microsoft opened an urgent probe into reported military use of its technology, Oracle selected GPT-5 for SaaS applications, and a reported potential U.S. government stake in Intel kept technology policy in focus. A White House meeting on Ukraine added a geopolitical backdrop, while S&P maintained the U.S. AA+ sovereign rating late Monday.
QQQ and SPY rise about 0.5% as data, Fed governance and trade share focus
QQQ rose 0.53% and SPY gained 0.50%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.02 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. Headline durable-goods orders fell 2.8% versus a 3.8% expected decline, while core orders rose 1.1% versus 0.2% expected. Consumer confidence was 97.4 versus 96.4 expected, with the prior reading revised from 97.2 to 98.7. Fed governance and trade reports also remained in focus.
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
AI
144 related news items · 31 review days
Tariffs
120 related news items · 27 review days
China
87 related news items · 26 review days
Semiconductors
105 related news items · 25 review days
FOMC
92 related news items · 25 review days
Meta
35 related news items · 24 review days
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
QQQ falls 2.12% and lags as jobs shock deepens risk
QQQ fell 2.12% and SPY lost 1.72%, leaving QQQ 0.40 percentage points behind. A weak July payroll gain, sharp prior-month revisions, softer manufacturing data, and policy risks around the Fed, labor statistics, and Russia framed the session.
Markets closed as tariff, oil and AI headlines shape weekend context
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday's closing values. Nintendo and Berkshire highlighted tariff and operating risks, India maintained Russian oil purchases, Tesla governance concerns remained in focus, and Meta reportedly invested $250 million in AI recruitment.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday pause leaves oil supply, trade policy and Big Tech AI in focus
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, so QQQ and SPY carried Friday's regular closing values. OPEC+ outlined a September output increase, U.S. tariff rates for dozens of countries were largely finalized, and Trump said Fed governor and BLS commissioner choices would follow. Apple reportedly formed an answer-engine team, while Meta planned a nearly $2 billion data-center asset sale to fund AI development.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ gains 2.00% as trade relief and AI momentum lift technology shares
QQQ rose 2.00% and SPY gained 1.62%, leaving technology-heavy QQQ ahead by 0.38 percentage points. A reported six-month suspension of EU trade countermeasures coincided with a firm pre-market advance. U.S. durable-goods data, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued investment in AI infrastructure added context through the session.
QQQ falls 1.04% as soft services data and chip risks weigh
QQQ fell 1.04% and SPY declined 0.62%, leaving technology-heavy QQQ behind by 0.41 percentage points. July's ISM services reading missed expectations as its prices gauge rose and employment remained in contraction. AI security scrutiny, AMD's after-hours results, and proposed tariffs on chip imports added pressure around technology shares later in the day.
Policy shifts and U.S. tech investment frame QQQ's 1.38% rebound
QQQ rose 1.38% and SPY gained 0.90%, putting technology-heavy QQQ ahead by 0.48 percentage points. Most of the advance came during the regular session. Daly said policy adjustments may be needed as the labor market softened, while an additional tariff on Indian goods, a proposed chip tariff with a U.S.-investment exemption, and Apple's expanded domestic investment shaped the policy and technology backdrop.
Late recovery leaves QQQ 0.43 points ahead of SPY
QQQ opened 0.76% above the prior close and finished up 0.51%, while SPY moved from a 0.55% opening gain to a 0.08% advance. QQQ led by 0.43 percentage points. Both funds faded after the open and reached afternoon lows before recovering late in the session. Weekly initial jobless claims exceeded the forecast, OpenAI released GPT-5, and Federal Reserve and tariff commentary remained in focus. A banking-regulation order arrived alongside the late advance, while the after-hours nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board was followed by little change.
Nvidia trade context accompanies QQQ's 1.19% advance
QQQ opened 0.21% above the prior close and finished up 1.19%, while SPY moved from a 0.29% opening gain to a 1.00% advance. QQQ led by 0.18 percentage points. Both funds climbed during the regular session and added gains after the close. Chip-export policy, a reported U.S.-Russia truce plan for Ukraine, tariff-related corporate pressure and Federal Reserve commentary provided the day's main news context.
Saturday headlines span Bowman's rate-cut case, Cybertruck testing and AI classrooms
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, leaving policy and technology developments in focus. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said labor-market and broader economic concerns supported 3 rate cuts in 2025 after her July dissent. The U.S. Air Force was reported to be purchasing two Tesla Cybertrucks for missile-target testing at White Sands Missile Range. California also announced no-cost agreements with Google, Adobe, IBM and Microsoft to bring AI curricula and training to public education.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
China chip terms, tariff costs and AI investment lead Sunday's agenda
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, so policy and technology developments took the spotlight instead of price reaction. Nvidia and AMD reportedly agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of specified China AI-chip revenue for export licenses, while Nvidia separately denied that its chips contain backdoors or kill switches. Goldman Sachs estimated that U.S. companies had absorbed 64% of tariff costs as of June, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said most outstanding U.S. trade negotiations were expected to be largely completed by the end of October. OpenAI restored GPT-4o after user backlash to GPT-5, while Meta sought $29 billion for its Louisiana data-center expansion.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ slips 0.32% as China chip policy and tariff extensions dominate
QQQ ended 0.32% lower and SPY fell 0.23%, leaving QQQ 0.09 percentage points behind. Micron raised its guidance before the open, while AMD confirmed a China AI-chip export license and Nvidia introduced new robotics and simulation tools. During the session, Trump said the Nvidia and AMD arrangement covered older chips and excluded Blackwell, and a 90-day extension to the China tariff deadline was signed. Overnight, China was reported to urge firms not to use Nvidia H20 chips. These developments supplied mixed semiconductor and trade-policy context as both ETFs finished modestly lower.
QQQ finishes 1.36% higher amid CPI and rate-cut repricing
QQQ and SPY finished 1.36% and 1.12% above their previous closes after opening 0.41% and 0.37% higher. The session featured a 2.7% July headline CPI reading, expectations for three Fed rate cuts, pressure on Powell and fresh developments around Chrome and Threads.
SPY closes 0.25 percentage points ahead of QQQ amid Fed and tariff signals
SPY and QQQ finished 0.32% and 0.07% above their previous closes, leaving SPY 0.25 percentage points ahead after both opened higher. Bessent's 50-basis-point rate-cut call and Goolsbee's tariff-inflation caution framed the policy debate. Chip-shipment tracking reports, Amazon's grocery expansion and Cisco's $2 billion in AI orders supplied technology and sector context.
QQQ falls 0.22% as hot PPI and chip-policy headlines frame the day
QQQ ended 0.22% lower while SPY was nearly flat, leaving QQQ 0.26 percentage points behind. July producer prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier versus the 2.5% forecast, while initial jobless claims were 224,000 against a 225,000 estimate. During the session, Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation was near 3% and tariffs were feeding through, and White House adviser Peter Navarro said pharmaceutical tariffs were likely under a Section 232 investigation. Late in the day, the Trump administration was reported to be discussing a government stake in Intel. Applied Materials then issued fourth-quarter earnings and sales guidance below estimates after the close.
QQQ loses 0.49%, trailing SPY by 0.22 points on a mixed macro day
QQQ ended 0.49% lower and SPY fell 0.27%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.22 percentage points. Retail sales were mixed, while Michigan sentiment missed expectations and one-year inflation expectations rose. Semiconductor tariff comments and possible use of CHIPS Act funds for an Intel stake kept chip policy in focus.
Trilateral talks, China chip policy and smart-glasses demand shape Saturday
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, leaving policy and technology developments in focus. European governments backed preparations for a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine leaders' meeting, while Trump said he would meet Zelensky and that a trilateral meeting could follow if talks went well. Trump also said there were no current plans for tariffs on China's purchases of Russian oil. Separately, Nvidia and AMD chip supplies to China remained subject to U.S. policy, while global smart-glasses shipments rose 110% in the first half and Meta held more than 70% market share.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
U.S.-China shipping, India tariff risk and AI glasses lead Sunday's news
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, leaving trade policy, geopolitics and technology developments in focus. U.S.-China container traffic fell to its lowest level in two years, while the cancellation of planned U.S.-India talks raised the risk of a 50% tariff. Trump said significant progress had been made on Russia without providing details. Separately, Meta reportedly planned new AI glasses with a high-definition display, and Google agreed to pay a $36 million fine in Australia over alleged anti-competitive practices.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ slips 0.01% while SPY edges up 0.02% amid housing data and tech scrutiny
QQQ finished essentially flat, down 0.01%, while SPY edged up 0.02% and led by 0.02 percentage points. The August NAHB Housing Market Index missed its estimate. Microsoft opened an urgent probe into reported military use of its technology, Oracle selected GPT-5 for SaaS applications, and a reported potential U.S. government stake in Intel kept technology policy in focus. A White House meeting on Ukraine added a geopolitical backdrop, while S&P maintained the U.S. AA+ sovereign rating late Monday.
QQQ slides 1.56% and trails SPY as Intel policy and mixed data dominate
QQQ fell 1.56% and SPY lost 0.63%, leaving QQQ 0.93 percentage points behind. Mixed housing and retail data, U.S. efforts to take an Intel stake, AI reorganization, and trade scrutiny were the main contexts.
QQQ finishes 0.63% lower with tariffs, Fed minutes and AI in focus
QQQ fell 0.63% and SPY lost 0.31%, leaving QQQ 0.31 percentage points behind. Tariff-policy distinctions, Fed minutes, OpenAI revenue and computing constraints, and Google and Microsoft product-security headlines were prominent contexts.
QQQ rebounds from 0.86% low but ends 0.33% down as claims rise and factory PMI expands
QQQ ended 0.33% lower and SPY lost 0.24%, leaving QQQ 0.08 percentage points behind. Both opened about 0.28% lower, fell to intraday lows of 0.86% and 0.64%, then recovered into after-hours trading. Mixed U.S. data, Fed warnings about tariff-linked inflation, trade and chip-policy developments, and AI financing and product news were prominent contexts.
QQQ gains 1.66% as Powell's policy signal frames a broad rally
QQQ rose 1.66% and SPY gained 1.57%, with QQQ leading by 0.10 percentage points. Powell's Jackson Hole comments on a possible policy adjustment anchored the session, while Canada's tariff rollback and Intel's U.S. government investment added trade and industrial-policy context.
Saturday brings Fed governance, AI workforce moves and tariff disruption
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's carried closes. The day's news centered on pressure over Federal Reserve leadership, corporate adoption of AI tools, a large Amazon investment, U.S.-India diplomatic tensions, and parcel disruptions after a tariff exemption ended.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news turns to Apple redesigns, central-bank independence and chip tools
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's carried closes. The day's news centered on Apple's multi-year iPhone redesign plan, warnings over Federal Reserve independence, a long-term U.S. debt study, Nvidia's physical-AI push, and reported restrictions on Chinese tools in TSMC's leading-edge production.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Midday highs give way to a 0.29% QQQ loss and a 0.36% SPY decline
QQQ fell 0.29% and SPY lost 0.36%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.07 percentage points after both retreated from midday highs. July new-home sales beat estimates even as the monthly rate fell 0.6%. Nvidia launched Jetson AGX Thor, while U.S. policy news spanned furniture tariffs, the cancellation of $7.4 billion in semiconductor research funding, and the overnight announcement dismissing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
QQQ and SPY rise about 0.5% as data, Fed governance and trade share focus
QQQ rose 0.53% and SPY gained 0.50%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.02 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. Headline durable-goods orders fell 2.8% versus a 3.8% expected decline, while core orders rose 1.1% versus 0.2% expected. Consumer confidence was 97.4 versus 96.4 expected, with the prior reading revised from 97.2 to 98.7. Fed governance and trade reports also remained in focus.
After-hours pullback leaves QQQ down 0.31% as SPY ends nearly flat
QQQ fell 0.31% and SPY slipped 0.05%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.26 percentage points. Both gained during the regular session before turning lower after hours. Nvidia earnings and guidance, Williams’s rate-path remarks, and U.S.-EU trade and industrial-policy news shaped the day’s context.
QQQ gains 0.55% and leads SPY as data, retail and chip-policy news share focus
QQQ gained 0.55% and SPY rose 0.31%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.24 percentage points. Revised GDP, jobless claims and core PCE data framed the premarket. Retail earnings, tariff developments, chip policy and Federal Reserve governance remained important context through the session and overnight trading.
Weak activity data and chip risk frame QQQ's 1.28% decline
QQQ fell 1.28% and SPY declined 0.61%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.67 percentage points. Both opened lower and most of the decline occurred during the regular session. Core PCE matched expectations, while Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment missed forecasts. Chip-policy developments, Marvell's softer guidance, late Federal Reserve signals and an after-hours tariff ruling remained important context.
With markets closed, fund-flow caution and Meta's external-AI talks take focus
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's carried closes. Weekly fund-flow data showed only a modest net inflow into U.S. equity funds as concern over Federal Reserve independence intensified. Reports also said Meta was considering OpenAI or Google models for its applications after setbacks in its internal AI work.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
AI capex, semiconductor demand and Fed governance lead Sunday headlines
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's carried closes. AI infrastructure led the news as BAT's combined second-quarter capital expenditure reached 61.583 billion yuan, South Korean semiconductor exports set an August record, and Positron tested an energy-saving inference chip. Republican disagreement over Federal Reserve independence and shipping companies' efforts to replace Chinese financing amid new U.S. port fees added policy and trade context.
Market closed · No intraday price curve