Official U.S. CPI releaseWed, Feb 12January 2025
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
February 2025
Replay February 2025 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 28
- Trading days
- 19
- News
- 756
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Feb 1, 2025 — Feb 28, 2025
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -2.69% and SPY at -1.29% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY sessionStrongest intraday rebound
Mixed PCE and spending data frame an afternoon rebound, lifting QQQ and SPY about 1.6%
QQQ opened 0.07% below its previous close while SPY opened 0.16% higher. Both later recovered from intraday lows and finished up 1.61% and 1.58%, leaving QQQ ahead by about 0.03 percentage points. January core PCE inflation slowed to 2.6% and matched estimates, while personal spending fell 0.2% instead of rising 0.2%. The canceled White House press conference and unsigned U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement added a policy-risk headline during the session.
2 session driversMixed inflation and spending data3 key headlinesUSA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) For January 2.6% Vs 2.6% Est.; 2.9% Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.59%
SPY+1.54%
Weakest QQQ sessionLargest QQQ–SPY divergence
QQQ falls 2.72% and trails SPY by 1.10 points as tariff details and technology headlines accumulate
QQQ opened 0.72% above its previous close and SPY opened 0.48% higher, but the early gains reversed. QQQ finished down 2.72% and SPY fell 1.62%, leaving QQQ behind by 1.10 percentage points. Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.3% matched estimates, while initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 and core PCE inflation of 2.7% exceeded expectations. Tariff announcements set March 4 for new duties on Canada, Mexico, and China and later clarified a total 20% tariff on China. After the close, OpenAI released a research preview of GPT-4.5, adding another major technology headline to the session.
3 session driversMixed U.S. economic data5 key headlinesTrump's Plan For Canada, Mexico, China Tariffs To Start March 4 Could Shake Stock Market
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.77%
SPY-1.60%
Weakest SPY session
QQQ drops 2.09% and trails SPY as weak services and consumer data meet technology pressure
QQQ opened 0.36% higher and SPY opened 0.08% higher, but both turned lower during the regular session. QQQ finished the period down 2.09% and SPY fell 1.66%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.43 percentage points. U.S. services activity slipped below 50, consumer sentiment missed estimates and existing-home sales also fell short. Reports involving Apple's modem strategy and possible EU charges against Google added technology-specific pressure as the decline unfolded.
3 session driversSofter U.S. demand data4 key headlinesU.S. services PMI falls to 49.7 in February
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.07%
SPY-1.70%
Calmest session
QQQ gains 0.41% while SPY finishes flat as retail sales weaken and factory output firms
QQQ moved from a slight opening loss to finish 0.41% above the prior close, while SPY ended essentially flat, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.40 percentage points. January retail sales fell much more than forecast, but industrial production exceeded expectations. Import-price, AI investment and semiconductor-manufacturing reports supplied additional context through the session and overnight.
3 session driversWeaker retail sales6 key headlinesU.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.9% in January Versus a 0.1% Expected Decline
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.41%
SPY0.00%
Busiest news day
QQQ leads a broad advance at 1.36% amid reciprocal-tariff and AI updates
QQQ opened 0.13% higher and finished up 1.36%, while SPY opened 0.02% lower and ended up 1.04%. QQQ led by 0.32 percentage points. Hotter PPI data, reciprocal-tariff steps, and Baidu and Apple product reports supplied the session's main context as both indexes strengthened after the open.
3 session driversHotter producer prices5 key headlinesExpress News | In January, the USA's PPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with an expected growth of 3.2%, compared to a previous growth of 3.3%.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.43%
SPY+1.05%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01Google
AI
149 related news items · 25 review days
15.4%+0.3 pp vs prior 3 months
02Semiconductors
84 related news items · 25 review days
8.7%+0.9 pp vs prior 3 months
03China
76 related news items · 25 review days
7.9%-0.1 pp vs prior 3 months
04Tariffs
84 related news items · 24 review days
8.7%+4.8 pp vs prior 3 months
05Tesla
68 related news items · 22 review days
7.0%+0.0 pp vs prior 3 months
0650 related news items · 22 review days
5.2%+2.2 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
With U.S. markets closed Saturday, tariffs, AI strategy and Tesla production shape the news
QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's carried closes while U.S. markets were closed. News focused on new U.S. tariffs on Chinese, Canadian and Mexican goods, OpenAI's response to DeepSeek, refreshed Model Y production and DOGE's request for Treasury payment-system access.
3 session driversU.S. tariff expansion5 key headlinesThe USA announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday news turns to tariff retaliation, chip controls and Asian policy signals
QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's carried closes while U.S. markets were closed Sunday. Canada and Mexico announced tariff countermeasures, a U.S. policy change targeted low-value Chinese e-commerce shipments, Singapore rejected a chip-routing claim involving DeepSeek, and Asian policy signals came from the Bank of Japan and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI.
3 session driversTariff countermeasures6 key headlinesCanada Retaliates Against Trump's Tariffs With Countermeasures: 25% Tariffs On $107 Billion of US-Made Goods
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff reprieves erase most of the opening slide as QQQ edges SPY
QQQ opened 1.65% lower and finished down 0.11%. SPY opened 1.49% lower and ended down 0.23%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.11 percentage points. U.S. manufacturing readings beat estimates, Mexico and Canada secured temporary tariff pauses, Fed officials emphasized tariff-related price risks, and China announced new tariffs overnight.
3 session driversTariff negotiations5 key headlinesISM Manufacturing PMI For January 50.9 Vs 49.3 Est.; 49.2 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.79%
SPY-0.69%
QQQ leads a broad advance as softer labor data meets tech catalysts
QQQ opened 0.27% higher and finished up 0.90%. SPY opened 0.08% higher and ended up 0.44%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.46 percentage points. Below-forecast JOLTS openings accompanied gains after the release, while tariff retaliation and Iran policy kept geopolitical risks in view. Palantir's AI-demand rally and post-close Alphabet and AMD results kept technology headlines prominent.
4 session driversCooling labor demand6 key headlinesU.S. December JOLTS Job Openings 7.600M vs 8.010M Estimate; 8.156M Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.24%
SPY+0.67%
Opening losses flip to 0.5% gains as ISM and Fed signals frame the session
QQQ and SPY opened 0.62% and 0.35% below the previous close, then finished up 0.52% and 0.49%, with QQQ ahead by 0.02 percentage points. ADP employment topped estimates, while January ISM services activity missed expectations. OpenAI's rollout and Fed tariff-inflation remarks accompanied intraday strength, while AMD's weaker data-center guidance tempered the technology backdrop.
3 session driversMixed U.S. data5 key headlinesThe Little Non-Farm Report Beat Expectations as U.S. January ADP Employment Rose by 183,000
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.45%
SPY+0.40%
Labor data and Fed caution precede Amazon's outlook as QQQ gains 0.48%
QQQ and SPY opened 0.05% and 0.22% above the previous close, then ended the period with gains of 0.48% and 0.29%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.19 percentage points. Initial claims were 219,000 versus 214,000 expected, continuing claims were 1.886 million versus 1.87 million expected, and fourth-quarter nonfarm productivity was 1.2% versus 1.5% expected. Goolsbee said uncertainty implied a slower pace of cuts. Amazon beat quarterly EPS and sales estimates, then set first-quarter revenue at $151.0 billion to $155.5 billion.
3 session driversLabor-market releases5 key headlinesUSA Initial Jobless Claims 219K Vs 214K Estimate; 208K Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.52%
SPY+0.35%
Inflation expectations deepen the slide as QQQ trails SPY
QQQ and SPY opened 0.08% and 0.07% below the previous close, then finished down 1.46% and 1.00%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.46 percentage points. January payrolls rose by 143,000 versus 170,000 expected, while unemployment eased to 4.0% and monthly wage growth reached 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. Consumer sentiment hit a seven-month low and one-year inflation expectations rose to a 15-month high of 4.3%. Reciprocal-tariff plans and a Fed report describing valuations as high added policy and valuation context.
4 session driversMixed labor signals5 key headlinesExpress News | USA consumer confidence hit a seven-month low, and the one-year inflation expectation of 4.3% reached a 15-month high.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.26%
SPY-0.91%
AI spending and split DOGE rulings frame Saturday's closed-market news
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, so QQQ and SPY stayed at their carried Friday regular closes of $523.47 and $601.12, with no tradable reaction to the day's headlines. Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta planned $320 billion of AI and data-center investment in 2025, up from $230 billion in 2024. SIA reported that 2024 global semiconductor sales grew 19.1% to $627.6 billion. Separate court rulings allowed DOGE access to Labor Department systems but temporarily restricted access to Treasury payment systems. Trump said DeepSeek posed no U.S. security threat.
3 session driversAI investment and chip demand5 key headlinesFour U.S. tech giants plan $320 billion of AI and data-center investment in 2025
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff plans and technology commitments shape Sunday's closed-market news
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, so QQQ and SPY remained at their carried Friday regular closes of $523.47 and $601.12, with no tradable reaction to the day's headlines. Trump said he would announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Monday. LEAP 2025 opened with $14.9 billion in technology investment commitments. T-Mobile launched a Starlink satellite-to-cell beta covering 500,000 square miles. Apple scheduled a Shanghai developer event and expanded home-robot hiring, while AI executives kept DeepSeek competition in focus.
2 session driversSteel and aluminum tariff plan5 key headlinesTrump says 25% steel and aluminum tariffs will be announced Monday
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ carries an opening jump to a 1.05% gain as AI and trade-policy news build
QQQ opened 0.81% higher and finished up 1.05%, while SPY ended up 0.53%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.51 percentage points. AI investment and chip design, New York Fed inflation expectations, and trade-policy actions framed the day. Part of the advance faded after regular trading.
3 session driversAI investment and chips5 key headlinesFrance unveils a $112 billion AI investment package
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.20%
SPY+0.67%
SPY turns an opening loss into a slim gain as QQQ lags amid Fed, tariff and AI news
QQQ opened 0.57% lower and finished down 0.15%, while SPY recovered from a 0.35% opening loss to gain 0.08%. SPY led by 0.22 percentage points. Powell's patient policy message, the March 12 start date for steel and aluminum tariffs, and new European and Apple-linked AI initiatives framed the session.
3 session driversPatient Fed policy4 key headlinesPowell says the Fed is in no hurry to adjust policy as it pursues 2% inflation
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.25%
SPY+0.06%
QQQ rebounds from the CPI shock to gain 0.48% while SPY slips
QQQ opened 0.16% higher and finished up 0.48%, while SPY opened essentially flat and ended down 0.12%. QQQ led by 0.60 percentage points. Hotter CPI data coincided with a sharp premarket drop, while Blackwell demand, Fed regulation and Russia-Ukraine negotiation headlines framed the later recovery.
4 session driversHotter inflation data5 key headlinesU.S. January CPI rose 3.0% year over year versus 2.9% expected and 2.9% prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.06%
SPY-0.32%
QQQ leads a broad advance at 1.36% amid reciprocal-tariff and AI updates
QQQ opened 0.13% higher and finished up 1.36%, while SPY opened 0.02% lower and ended up 1.04%. QQQ led by 0.32 percentage points. Hotter PPI data, reciprocal-tariff steps, and Baidu and Apple product reports supplied the session's main context as both indexes strengthened after the open.
3 session driversHotter producer prices5 key headlinesExpress News | In January, the USA's PPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with an expected growth of 3.2%, compared to a previous growth of 3.3%.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.43%
SPY+1.05%
QQQ gains 0.41% while SPY finishes flat as retail sales weaken and factory output firms
QQQ moved from a slight opening loss to finish 0.41% above the prior close, while SPY ended essentially flat, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.40 percentage points. January retail sales fell much more than forecast, but industrial production exceeded expectations. Import-price, AI investment and semiconductor-manufacturing reports supplied additional context through the session and overnight.
3 session driversWeaker retail sales6 key headlinesU.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.9% in January Versus a 0.1% Expected Decline
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.41%
SPY0.00%
Fed independence, Ukraine security and Intel reports lead Saturday headlines
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's regular close. Saturday's reported developments centered on Powell's view of presidential authority over Federal Reserve governors, Ukraine's mineral-reserve negotiations and European defense, alleged banking restrictions on crypto firms, and possible changes involving Intel's factories and chip-design business.
3 session driversFederal Reserve governance5 key headlinesPowell Says a U.S. President Cannot Remove Federal Reserve Board Members
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday brings Japan GDP, Fed outreach and technology supply-chain updates
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's regular close. Japan reported 2.8% annualized fourth-quarter growth against a 1.1% expectation, while Britain's tariff warning and planned White House meetings with Powell kept trade and monetary policy in view. Reports on Foxconn's iPhone expansion constraints and refreshed Model Y exports added technology supply-chain context.
3 session driversJapan growth and rates5 key headlinesJapan's Fourth-Quarter GDP Expands at 2.8% Annualized Pace
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Presidents Day closure puts Fed policy, xAI and Tesla China risk in focus
U.S. markets were closed for Washington's Birthday, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's regular close. Fed officials stressed patience. Harker backed steady rates, Bowman wanted more confidence on inflation, and Waller said cuts could resume if inflation follows its 2024 pattern. South Korea's plan for 10,000 GPUs and xAI's Grok 3 DeepSearch launch added AI investment and product updates. Tesla's reported China self-driving approval delay highlighted trade-policy risk.
3 session driversFed policy patience5 key headlinesFed Governor Bowman Wants More Inflation Confidence Before Further Cuts
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ and SPY recover from afternoon lows to gain 0.37% amid mixed data and policy risk
QQQ and SPY each finished about 0.37% above the previous close after opening higher, sliding to afternoon lows and recovering after the close and overnight. QQQ edged ahead, but the difference was negligible. A stronger Empire State reading and weaker housing sentiment offered mixed growth signals. Fed officials kept restrictive policy and AI-valuation risk in view, while a post-close 25% tariff plan for autos, chips and pharmaceuticals added trade-policy uncertainty.
3 session driversMixed growth data5 key headlinesNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) 5.70 Vs -1.90 Est; -12.60 prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.22%
SPY+0.27%
SPY gains 0.13% as QQQ ends flat after a late rally on housing data and Fed minutes
QQQ and SPY opened about 0.20% lower and fell to late-morning lows before rallying to roughly 0.25% above the prior close near the end of regular trading. After-hours weakness left QQQ little changed at a 0.06% loss, while SPY retained a 0.13% gain and led by 0.20 percentage points. Building permits beat estimates while housing starts missed. The FOMC minutes supported a careful approach to rate cuts, while Apple's iPhone 16e launch and a later tariff announcement kept technology and policy themes in focus.
4 session driversMixed housing data5 key headlinesUS Building Permits (Jan): 1.483M Vs 1.460M Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.04%
SPY+0.23%
QQQ and SPY recover from midmorning lows but finish about 0.4% lower amid softer activity data
QQQ and SPY opened 0.22% and 0.29% lower, then fell to intraday lows of 1.22% and 0.88% below the prior close around 11:02 a.m. ET before recovering through the afternoon. The later rebound left QQQ down 0.39% and SPY down 0.41%, with QQQ ahead by 0.02 percentage points. Initial jobless claims came in above estimates, the Philadelphia Fed index missed expectations and the U.S. leading index fell more than forecast. A report on Walmart's guidance shortfall, Fed comments on inflation and tariffs, and technology-company news supplied additional market context.
3 session driversSofter U.S. activity data4 key headlinesUSA Initial Jobless Claims 219K Vs 215K Est; 214K Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.43%
SPY-0.41%
QQQ drops 2.09% and trails SPY as weak services and consumer data meet technology pressure
QQQ opened 0.36% higher and SPY opened 0.08% higher, but both turned lower during the regular session. QQQ finished the period down 2.09% and SPY fell 1.66%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.43 percentage points. U.S. services activity slipped below 50, consumer sentiment missed estimates and existing-home sales also fell short. Reports involving Apple's modem strategy and possible EU charges against Google added technology-specific pressure as the decline unfolded.
3 session driversSofter U.S. demand data4 key headlinesU.S. services PMI falls to 49.7 in February
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.07%
SPY-1.70%
Weekend focus turns to Buffett's fiscal warning, consumer confidence and federal policy
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's regular close. Berkshire Hathaway's annual letter paired a commitment to keep equity holdings above cash with Buffett's warning that fiscal folly could erode paper-currency value. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index held at -19 amid tariff and inflation concerns. Musk's directive to federal employees and Trump's call for U.S. access to Ukrainian rare earths and oil added policy and resource-security developments.
3 session driversBerkshire capital and fiscal signals5 key headlinesBuffett warns in annual letter that fiscal folly could erode paper-currency value
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Closed markets leave AI spending, chip capacity and Fed commentary in view
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY unchanged at Friday's regular close. Alibaba announced a 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) investment in cloud and AI infrastructure. Nvidia reportedly booked more than 70% of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity this year as shipment volumes rose more than 20% quarter-on-quarter, while Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said generative AI had yet to show a material economic impact. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee downplayed higher consumer inflation expectations, and Berkshire disclosed increased investments in 5 Japanese companies.
3 session driversAI capital and capacity signals5 key headlinesAlibaba announces $53 billion investment in cloud and AI infrastructure
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Microsoft AI-capacity questions and tariff risks frame QQQ's 1.13% slide, 0.81 points behind SPY
QQQ opened 0.47% above its previous close but ended 1.13% lower, while SPY moved from a 0.53% opening gain to a 0.32% decline. That left QQQ 0.81 percentage points behind SPY. Reports of Microsoft data-center lease cancellations raised AI-capacity questions, although the company said its $80 billion infrastructure plan remained on track. The Chicago Fed national activity index fell to -0.03 from 0.18 and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index slowed to 8.300 from 14.100. Apple announced $500 billion of U.S. investment, while tariff statements and stronger reported demand for Nvidia H20 chips remained in view after the close.
3 session driversAI capacity and chip demand6 key headlinesApple pledges $500 billion in U.S. investment and 20,000 new jobs
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.19%
SPY-0.46%
QQQ falls 0.81% and trails SPY as consumer confidence and chip policy dominate
QQQ fell 0.81% while SPY declined 0.20%, leaving QQQ 0.60 percentage points behind. Consumer confidence dropped to 98.3 and the Expectations Index to 72.9. Tighter China chip restrictions stayed in focus alongside Apple's planned role as TSMC Arizona's largest customer. After regular trading, a copper-tariff investigation and a reported $200 billion Meta data-center plan extended the policy and AI-spending themes.
4 session driversConsumer confidence5 key headlinesU.S. consumer confidence plunges in February as Nasdaq falls nearly 2%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.27%
SPY-0.50%
Early gains fade, leaving QQQ and SPY nearly flat as Nvidia results lead the late news
QQQ opened 0.84% above its previous close and SPY opened 0.54% higher, but both surrendered those gains and finished nearly flat. QQQ ended down 0.04% and SPY fell 0.10%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.05 percentage points. New-home sales missed estimates, while crude inventories posted an unexpected draw. Nvidia beat quarterly expectations and guided first-quarter revenue above estimates, although both ETFs moved lower after the releases. Amazon's Alexa+ launch kept the expansion of consumer AI products in view.
3 session driversNvidia results and outlook5 key headlinesNVIDIA Q4 2025 Adj. EPS $0.89 Beats $0.84 Estimate, Sales $39.331B Beat $38.045B Estimate
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.23%
SPY+0.03%
QQQ falls 2.72% and trails SPY by 1.10 points as tariff details and technology headlines accumulate
QQQ opened 0.72% above its previous close and SPY opened 0.48% higher, but the early gains reversed. QQQ finished down 2.72% and SPY fell 1.62%, leaving QQQ behind by 1.10 percentage points. Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.3% matched estimates, while initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 and core PCE inflation of 2.7% exceeded expectations. Tariff announcements set March 4 for new duties on Canada, Mexico, and China and later clarified a total 20% tariff on China. After the close, OpenAI released a research preview of GPT-4.5, adding another major technology headline to the session.
3 session driversMixed U.S. economic data5 key headlinesTrump's Plan For Canada, Mexico, China Tariffs To Start March 4 Could Shake Stock Market
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.77%
SPY-1.60%
Mixed PCE and spending data frame an afternoon rebound, lifting QQQ and SPY about 1.6%
QQQ opened 0.07% below its previous close while SPY opened 0.16% higher. Both later recovered from intraday lows and finished up 1.61% and 1.58%, leaving QQQ ahead by about 0.03 percentage points. January core PCE inflation slowed to 2.6% and matched estimates, while personal spending fell 0.2% instead of rising 0.2%. The canceled White House press conference and unsigned U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement added a policy-risk headline during the session.
2 session driversMixed inflation and spending data3 key headlinesUSA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) For January 2.6% Vs 2.6% Est.; 2.9% Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.59%
SPY+1.54%