Official U.S. CPI releaseWed, Mar 12February 2025
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
March 2025
Replay March 2025 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 31
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 883
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Mar 1, 2025 — Mar 31, 2025
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at -7.72% and SPY at -5.90% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY session
QQQ gains 2.31% as rebound withstands weak consumer sentiment
QQQ gained 2.31% and SPY rose 1.93%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.38 percentage points. Both ETFs opened higher and extended gains during the regular session. Weak Michigan consumer sentiment readings coincided with a brief pullback, while tariff-related corporate updates, new AI investments and Russia-related headlines supplied the day’s policy and technology context.
4 session driversHigher open and session rebound5 key headlinesU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 57.9 in March
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.41%
SPY+2.06%
Weakest QQQ sessionWeakest SPY sessionLargest QQQ–SPY divergence
QQQ sinks 4.55% and trails SPY amid tariff and growth worries
QQQ fell 4.55% and SPY lost 3.01%, leaving QQQ 1.54 percentage points behind. Tariff retaliation and uncertainty, inflation and rate signals, consumer strain, and weaker Tesla demand in China supplied the day's main context.
3 session driversTariff policy uncertainty6 key headlinesHassett Says Tariff Uncertainty Will Clear in April and Rejects Recession Call
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-3.76%
SPY-2.63%
Strongest intraday rebound
QQQ leads a rebound from midday lows as jobs and Fed signals shift
QQQ rose 0.55% and SPY gained 0.35%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.20 percentage points after both recovered from midday lows. The session combined a softer-than-expected payroll gain and a 4.1% unemployment rate with Powell's wait-and-see stance, while Meta and DeepSeek headlines kept AI products and policy in focus.
3 session driversFebruary employment report5 key headlinesUS Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 151K Vs 159K Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.74%
SPY+0.55%
Calmest sessionBusiest news day
QQQ finishes 0.40 points ahead of SPY amid macro data and AI launches
QQQ rose 0.74% and SPY gained 0.33%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.40 percentage points after opening 0.15% and 0.21% higher. Consumer confidence fell to 92.9 and missed the 94.2 estimate, while February new home sales reached 676,000 versus 682,000 expected and 664,000 prior. A Black Sea security agreement and the Gemini 2.5 and OpenAI 4o image-generation launches provided geopolitical and technology context.
3 session driversU.S. consumer and housing data5 key headlinesUSA CB Consumer Confidence For March 92.9 Vs 94.2 Est.; 98.3 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.57%
SPY+0.22%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01
Tesla
84 related news items · 30 review days
7.8%+0.8 pp vs prior 3 months
02Tariffs
146 related news items · 29 review days
13.5%+7.1 pp vs prior 3 months
03AI
152 related news items · 27 review days
14.1%-1.5 pp vs prior 3 months
04China
81 related news items · 25 review days
7.5%-0.4 pp vs prior 3 months
05Semiconductors
98 related news items · 24 review days
9.1%+0.6 pp vs prior 3 months
06Nvidia
66 related news items · 23 review days
6.1%+0.9 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
Inflation, DeepSeek economics and Ukraine diplomacy lead Saturday news
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's $503.05 and $588.10 closing levels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said inflation could return to 2% within 6 to 12 months under Trump administration policies and said housing could recover. DeepSeek reported a theoretical daily cost-profit ratio of 545%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Zelenskyy to apologize after the tense White House meeting and questioned his commitment to a peace deal.
3 session driversInflation and housing outlook3 key headlinesU.S. Treasury Secretary Expects Inflation to Return to 2% and Housing to Recover
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Crypto reserve and tariff policy frame Sunday's closed-market news
U.S. markets remained closed for the weekend, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closing levels of $503.05 and $588.10. President Trump announced plans for a U.S. crypto reserve. Warren Buffett said tariffs act as a tax on goods and can hurt consumers, while a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada was due to take effect on March 4. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, above the 50.4 estimate and January's 50.1. Trump also criticized a U.K. order seeking access to Apple's encrypted cloud storage.
4 session driversU.S. crypto reserve policy4 key headlinesTrump Announces Plans for a U.S. Crypto Reserve
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Manufacturing data and chip investment frame a reversal from early gains
QQQ opened 0.73% above reference but ended down 1.77%. SPY opened up 0.41% and ended down 1.48%, beating QQQ by 0.29 percentage point. February S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52.7 versus 51.6 expected, while ISM manufacturing PMI was 50.3 versus 50.6 and its prices index hit 62.4 versus 56.2. The White House confirmed a signed action setting China tariffs at 20%. China later announced retaliatory duties, company sanctions and a WTO challenge. TSMC outlined five more U.S. chip factories and at least $165 billion in U.S. investment. After the close, Trump halted U.S. military aid to Ukraine and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave filed for an IPO.
2 session driversManufacturing and inflation signals6 key headlinesU.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.7 vs. 51.6 Estimate; 51.2 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.14%
SPY-1.72%
Tariff reversals leave QQQ higher while SPY ends lower
QQQ opened 0.92% below reference but finished up 0.36%. SPY opened down 0.77% and finished down 0.57%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.93 percentage point. Canada imposed 25% tariffs on C$30 billion of U.S. goods immediately and on another C$125 billion in 21 days. New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs would affect inflation and could weigh on growth. A late-session report said Taiwan chip tariffs remained under consideration despite TSMC's $100 billion agreement. After the close, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled possible Canada and Mexico tariff reductions, while Trump called for repealing the CHIPS Act and said Ukraine and Russia were ready for peace talks.
3 session driversTrade retaliation and relief signals6 key headlinesCanada Imposes 25% Tariffs on C$30 Billion Now and 25% on C$125 Billion in 21 Days
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.31%
SPY-1.18%
QQQ and SPY rise amid services data and technology headlines
QQQ gained 0.98% and SPY rose 0.87%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.11 percentage points. The session included stronger-than-expected ISM services activity, softer private-payroll growth, a one-month auto-tariff delay, new Apple hardware, Ukraine-U.S. peace-talk plans, and Marvell results.
4 session driversU.S. services and employment data6 key headlinesU.S. February ISM Services PMI: 53.5 vs. 52.5 Expected; 52.8 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.32%
SPY+1.07%
QQQ lags as tariff and Fed signals shift, Broadcom rises after hours
QQQ fell 2.33% and SPY lost 1.49%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.84 percentage points. The session included a temporary USMCA tariff exemption for Mexican goods, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims, cautious inflation and rate comments from Fed officials, and Broadcom results after the close.
3 session driversNorth American tariff policy5 key headlinesWhite House: Trump Spoke With Mexico's Sheinbaum; Trump Says Mexico Will Not Be Required to Pay Tariffs On Anything That Falls Under The USMCA; This Agreement Is Until April 2
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.73%
SPY-1.76%
QQQ leads a rebound from midday lows as jobs and Fed signals shift
QQQ rose 0.55% and SPY gained 0.35%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.20 percentage points after both recovered from midday lows. The session combined a softer-than-expected payroll gain and a 4.1% unemployment rate with Powell's wait-and-see stance, while Meta and DeepSeek headlines kept AI products and policy in focus.
3 session driversFebruary employment report5 key headlinesUS Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 151K Vs 159K Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.74%
SPY+0.55%
Funding bill, quantum debate and Cybercab shape Saturday focus
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closing levels of $491.02 and $575.17. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced a temporary funding bill through September 30 aimed at averting a possible March 14 shutdown, and Trump urged Republican support. Amazon executives questioned Microsoft's quantum-computing claims, Meta was reported to maintain do-not-rehire lists, Millennium reportedly incurred a $900 million loss tied to index rebalancing, and a Tesla Cybercab demonstration appeared at the Texas Gigafactory.
3 session driversU.S. government funding5 key headlinesHouse Speaker Announces Funding Bill as Trump Urges Republican Support
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Recession warning, Carney transition and corporate scrutiny frame Sunday news
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closing levels of $491.02 and $575.17. Trump said tariffs could bring short-term pain and declined to rule out a recession, while Mark Carney was set to become Canada's prime minister amid U.S. tariff tensions. Iran rejected Trump's nuclear negotiation proposal, Meta faced an allegation tied to censorship in China, Germany's January industrial production rose 2.0% versus a 1.6% estimate and a -2.4% prior reading, and Tesla stores in Canada were accused of exploiting electric-vehicle rebates.
3 session driversTariff and recession risk6 key headlinesTrump Calls U.S. Economy in a 'Transition Period' and Won't Rule Out Recession
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ sinks 4.55% and trails SPY amid tariff and growth worries
QQQ fell 4.55% and SPY lost 3.01%, leaving QQQ 1.54 percentage points behind. Tariff retaliation and uncertainty, inflation and rate signals, consumer strain, and weaker Tesla demand in China supplied the day's main context.
3 session driversTariff policy uncertainty6 key headlinesHassett Says Tariff Uncertainty Will Clear in April and Rejects Recession Call
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-3.76%
SPY-2.63%
QQQ edges higher while SPY falls as tariff plans swing
QQQ rose 0.19% while SPY fell 0.50%, putting QQQ ahead by 0.69 percentage points. Shifting Canada tariff plans, firmer-than-expected job openings, a proposed Ukraine ceasefire, and reported AI distribution deals framed the day's divergence.
4 session driversCanada tariff reversals5 key headlinesTrump Orders an Additional 25% Canada Steel and Aluminum Tariff, Raising the Rate to 50%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.22%
SPY-0.80%
Cooler CPI day favors technology as QQQ gains 1.55%
QQQ gained 1.55% and SPY rose 0.85%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.70 percentage points. Softer February headline and core CPI readings coincided with the strongest early advance. Tariff countermeasures, AI product launches, semiconductor leadership changes and large-technology regulatory news framed later trading and after-hours activity.
4 session driversCooler February inflation6 key headlinesU.S. February CPI Rose 2.8% Year on Year
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.16%
SPY+0.54%
QQQ falls 1.25% amid cooler PPI and renewed trade pressure
QQQ fell 1.25% and SPY lost 0.89%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.36 percentage points. Softer producer prices and lower-than-forecast jobless claims coincided with a premarket advance, while trade friction and proposed U.S. investment limits on China framed sharper intraday declines. Iranian oil sanctions and elevated small-business uncertainty added geopolitical and policy context.
3 session driversSofter producer prices and claims5 key headlinesExpress News | US February PPI YoY +3.2% Vs +3.3% Forecast, Prior +3.5%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.79%
SPY-1.32%
QQQ gains 2.31% as rebound withstands weak consumer sentiment
QQQ gained 2.31% and SPY rose 1.93%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.38 percentage points. Both ETFs opened higher and extended gains during the regular session. Weak Michigan consumer sentiment readings coincided with a brief pullback, while tariff-related corporate updates, new AI investments and Russia-related headlines supplied the day’s policy and technology context.
4 session driversHigher open and session rebound5 key headlinesU.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 57.9 in March
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.41%
SPY+2.06%
Tesla deliveries, federal order and chip rivalry lead Saturday news
U.S. markets were closed Saturday, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closing levels of $479.65 and $562.79. Tesla reportedly paused Cybertruck deliveries after metal-panel complaints, while Trump's public promotion of the company had not produced a visible lift in orders. Trump ordered several programs dismantled, including Voice of America. AerCap's chief executive said tariffs could shift aircraft demand from Boeing toward Airbus, and Amazon was reported to be investing heavily in chips to challenge Nvidia.
3 session driversTesla product and demand reports5 key headlinesTesla Pauses Cybertruck Deliveries After Metal-Panel Complaints
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff strains, Siri delay and China data shape Sunday news
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, with QQQ and SPY carrying Friday's closing levels of $479.65 and $562.79. Weekend news centered on policy and geopolitical risk as Trump signed a short-term spending bill, the Houthis threatened retaliation after U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, and Foxconn's chief executive warned about tariff uncertainty. Apple reportedly delayed upgraded Siri features until 2026, while Tencent was reported to be buying Nvidia H20 chips. China's February industrial production rose 5.9% and its unemployment rate reached 5.4%.
3 session driversPolicy and geopolitical risk5 key headlinesHouthis Threaten Retaliation After U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen
Market closed · No intraday price curve
SPY rises 0.74% as mixed retail data and tariffs set the backdrop
SPY gained 0.74% and QQQ rose 0.60%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.14 percentage points. Both ETFs opened nearly flat before advancing during the regular session. Mixed retail-sales readings were followed by a premarket upswing, while tariff developments and semiconductor supply-chain news provided the day’s broader policy and technology context.
3 session driversRegular-session advance4 key headlinesUSA Retail Sales (MoM) For February 0.2% Vs 0.6% Est.; -0.9% Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.64%
SPY+0.75%
QQQ trails SPY as tariff and AI updates frame a weaker session
QQQ opened 0.69% below the prior close and finished the session down 1.66%, while SPY opened 0.41% lower and ended down 1.08%. Housing and regional services data gave mixed macro signals before the open. Tariff policy, geopolitical developments, and NVIDIA product announcements supplied additional context as technology shares lagged the broader market.
4 session driversMixed macro data5 key headlinesUS Housing Starts (Feb) 1.501M Vs 1.380M Est.; Prior 1.350M
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.67%
SPY-1.08%
Fed decision-day rally lifts QQQ 1.72% ahead of SPY
QQQ opened 0.48% above its prior close and finished 1.72% higher, while SPY opened 0.30% higher and finished up 1.37%. QQQ led SPY by 0.35 percentage points. The Fed held its policy rate and slowed Treasury runoff, while Powell's comments on tariff-related goods inflation and patience on the next rate move framed the afternoon swings.
2 session driversFed decision and runoff4 key headlinesFed Leaves Key Overnight Interest Rate Unchanged
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.32%
SPY+1.07%
QQQ pares early slide but closes 0.32% lower amid macro, Meta and OPEC+ updates
QQQ opened 0.85% below its prior close and finished 0.32% lower, while SPY opened 0.68% lower and closed down 0.26%. SPY led by 0.06 percentage points. Labor and housing releases were mixed, while Meta's European AI rollout and OPEC+ compensation plans coincided with some of the larger intraday moves. Micron's earnings beat arrived just after the close.
4 session driversMixed labor and housing data5 key headlinesUSA Initial Jobless Claims 223K Vs 224K Est.; 221K Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.33%
SPY-0.26%
QQQ turns a 1.07% opening gap into a 0.49% gain as SPY slips 0.09%
QQQ rose 0.49% while SPY slipped 0.09%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.58 percentage points after both opened about 1.1% lower. Fed commentary, tariff signals and AI chip demand framed a regular-session rebound that was stronger in QQQ.
2 session driversRates and tariffs4 key headlinesPresident Trump Says We Can Talk About China Tariffs; Will Speak With China's Xi; There Will Be Flexibility On Tariffs; Basically It's Reciprocal; We Can Not Be Expected To Carry…
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.39%
SPY-0.23%
Saturday spotlights targeted tariffs, Tesla's Europe sales and Fed losses
U.S. markets were closed Saturday. Reports said the April 2 tariff plan would be targeted rather than comprehensive, Model Y sales in Europe had fallen 53%, and the Federal Reserve recorded a second consecutive annual loss. Tesla also faced ethics criticism over Trump administration promotion, while Elon Musk warned Pentagon employees suspected of leaking material about an alleged China war briefing.
3 session driversTargeted tariff plan5 key headlinesReports say Trump's April 2 tariff plan will be targeted rather than comprehensive
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Canada's vote, China outreach and chip controls set Sunday's agenda
U.S. markets were closed Sunday. Canada called an April 28 snap election as tariffs strained U.S. relations, while China pledged a better business environment for foreign companies. Tesla paused its China FSD trial rollout, and Malaysia planned tighter controls on high-end Nvidia chip flows. Japan's preliminary services PMI fell to 49.5 from 53.7, while South Korean retail investment in U.S. stocks and ETFs reached 10.2 billion USD through March 20.
3 session driversTariffs and business policy6 key headlinesChina reassures Apple, Pfizer and Eli Lilly as Vice Premier He Lifeng pledges a better business environment
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ gains 1.95%, with services strength and industrial policy in focus
QQQ rose 1.95% and SPY gained 1.75%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.20 percentage points after opening 1.43% and 1.20% higher. U.S. services and composite PMIs strengthened while manufacturing slipped below 50. Tariff announcements, Hyundai's U.S. investment plans and a prospective OPEC+ output increase framed the session.
3 session driversU.S. business activity4 key headlinesS&P Global Composite PMI For March 53.5 Vs 51.6 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.00%
SPY+1.78%
QQQ finishes 0.40 points ahead of SPY amid macro data and AI launches
QQQ rose 0.74% and SPY gained 0.33%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.40 percentage points after opening 0.15% and 0.21% higher. Consumer confidence fell to 92.9 and missed the 94.2 estimate, while February new home sales reached 676,000 versus 682,000 expected and 664,000 prior. A Black Sea security agreement and the Gemini 2.5 and OpenAI 4o image-generation launches provided geopolitical and technology context.
3 session driversU.S. consumer and housing data5 key headlinesUSA CB Consumer Confidence For March 92.9 Vs 94.2 Est.; 98.3 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.57%
SPY+0.22%
QQQ drops 2.10%, trailing SPY as tariff and tech risks build
QQQ fell 2.10% and SPY lost 1.36%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.74 percentage points after opening 0.24% and 0.05% lower. February durable goods orders rose 0.9% against a 1.1% decline expected, while core orders rose 0.7% versus 0.2% expected. Trade and technology risk stayed prominent as the U.S. added more than 50 Chinese organizations to an export restriction list, Trump announced tariffs of up to 25% on imported autos, and Microsoft was reported to have abandoned 2-gigawatt data-center projects in the U.S. and Europe. Musalem said inflation could stall above 2% and policy should remain patient.
3 session driversDurable goods and Fed caution6 key headlinesDurable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) +0.9% Vs -1.1% Est.; Prior +3.3%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.84%
SPY-1.17%
QQQ's rebound fades into a 0.72% loss as AI infrastructure and tariff responses lead
QQQ opened 0.41% lower, fell as much as 0.81%, rebounded to a 0.35% gain, and then finished down 0.72%. SPY ended 0.36% lower and outperformed QQQ by 0.36 percentage points. Slightly stronger fourth-quarter GDP, low jobless claims, steady headline PCE, and softer core PCE framed the macro backdrop. AI hardware, financing, and European tariff responses accompanied the day's swings. The largest measured moves came after the NIO financing and tariff update, Marvell's connectivity launch, and the Manus funding report.
3 session driversGrowth, inflation and labor data6 key headlinesUS GDP QoQ (Q4) +2.4% Vs +2.3% Est.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.58%
SPY-0.28%
Hot core PCE and tariff signals leave QQQ down 3.06%, trailing SPY
QQQ opened 0.42% lower and finished down 3.06%. SPY ended 2.28% lower and outperformed QQQ by 0.78 percentage points. Hotter core PCE, weaker consumer sentiment, expanding tariff signals, and major AI capital moves framed the day.
3 session driversInflation and consumer sentiment6 key headlinesCore PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) +2.8% Vs +2.7% Est; Prior +2.7%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.62%
SPY-1.98%
AI financing, Tesla protests and tariff escalation shape the weekend
Markets were closed Saturday. News centered on CoreWeave's customer concentration, Scale AI's reported $25 billion tender-offer valuation, worldwide Tesla protests, and reports that Trump would not delay April 2 tariffs while pressing advisers to intensify the measures.
3 session driversAI financing and concentration5 key headlinesTrump: April 2 tariff implementation will not be delayed further; 'doesn't care' if automakers raise prices because of tariffs
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff uncertainty, AI initiatives and Asian data shape Sunday news
U.S. markets were closed Sunday. News centered on reports of a broader U.S. tariff plan, Apple's AI-health project, OpenAI and Microsoft backing MCP, SK Hynix's $9 billion NAND acquisition, and Asian data showing China's manufacturing PMI at 50.5 and Japan's industrial production up 2.5%.
4 session driversTariff policy uncertainty6 key headlinesTrump's tariff stance hardens ahead of the April 2 announcement
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ recovers most of a 1.52% opening drop yet trails SPY by 0.73 points amid tariffs and mixed data
QQQ opened down 1.52% and recovered to finish 0.49% lower. SPY opened down 1.04% and ended up 0.24%, outperforming QQQ by 0.73 percentage points. Tariff risk, mixed manufacturing readings, a semiconductor update and Fed inflation caution framed the session.
4 session driversTariff risk and positioning6 key headlinesChicago PMI For March 47.6 Vs 45.5 Est.; 45.5 Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ0.00%
SPY+0.63%