Official U.S. CPI releaseThu, Apr 10March 2025
QQQ / SPY · Complete month
April 2025
Replay April 2025 through QQQ/SPY closing paths, intraday turns, recurring news themes, and every daily curve.
- Review days
- 30
- Trading days
- 21
- News
- 803
- Recurring news themes
- 6
Apr 1, 2025 — Apr 30, 2025
Monthly performance
QQQ ended at +1.40% and SPY at -0.90% from the previous regular close before the month.
Monthly change runs from the final trading-day close before the month to the final trading-day close of the month. Each point on the chart is a trading-day close.
Sessions worth replaying
Strongest QQQ sessionStrongest SPY sessionLargest QQQ–SPY divergence
A 90-day tariff pause lands as QQQ jumps 12.02% and leads SPY
QQQ rose 12.02% and SPY gained 9.95%, leaving QQQ ahead by 2.06 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. China's tariff increase, an immediate 90-day U.S. tariff pause, Google AI announcements, and the Fed's risk discussion framed an exceptionally volatile session.
3 session driversTariff-policy reversal5 key headlinesTrump authorizes immediate 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+11.80%
SPY+9.44%
Weakest QQQ sessionWeakest SPY session
QQQ falls 6.32% as retaliation deepens a tech-led selloff
QQQ fell 6.32% and SPY lost 5.81%, leaving QQQ 0.50 percentage points behind. China's 34% tariff and rare-earth controls broadened the trade confrontation, while a stronger payroll gain, Powell's inflation and growth warning, and the EU's planned response framed the day's risks.
3 session driversTariff retaliation5 key headlinesExpress News | The State Council Tariff Committee: A 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported Commodities originating from the USA.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-6.09%
SPY-5.81%
Strongest intraday reboundBusiest news day
QQQ slides 4.89% as tariff and rate concerns outweigh softer inflation
QQQ fell 4.89% and SPY lost 4.83%, with SPY ahead by 0.06 percentage points after both opened sharply lower. Softer March core inflation, the clarification that China tariffs totaled 145%, the Fed's stagflation concern, and a higher 30-year auction yield framed the session.
3 session driversInflation and the Fed4 key headlines"Trump Tariffs On China Now Total 145%, White House Clarifies" - CNBC
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-4.25%
SPY-4.36%
Calmest session
Small opening gains give way to 1% declines as trade and chip risks stay in focus
QQQ fell 1.13% and SPY lost 1.03%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.10 percentage points after both opened slightly higher. Tariff exemptions and weaker import demand kept trade policy in focus, while firmer New York manufacturing data and Bank of America's consumer update offered mixed domestic signals. Nvidia's new China export-license requirement and ASML's results added overnight context for the chip sector.
3 session driversTrade-policy crosscurrents6 key headlinesExpress News | Canada will grant a six-month tariff exemption on some US Commodities.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.11%
SPY-0.26%
Recurring news themes
See which themes kept returning during the month and how many review days they appeared in.
01
Tariffs
253 related news items · 30 review days
23.0%+13.9 pp vs prior 3 months
02Semiconductors
78 related news items · 27 review days
7.1%-1.7 pp vs prior 3 months
03AI
101 related news items · 26 review days
9.2%-6.0 pp vs prior 3 months
04China
125 related news items · 24 review days
11.4%+3.6 pp vs prior 3 months
05Nvidia
41 related news items · 24 review days
3.7%-1.8 pp vs prior 3 months
06Tesla
57 related news items · 23 review days
5.2%-2.1 pp vs prior 3 months
Topic counts are descriptive coverage measures. They do not measure price impact.
CPI
Official event-study dates
All daily reviews
Trading days show QQQ/SPY closing moves alongside the day’s news. Market-closed dates keep their news timelines.
QQQ rebounds 1.00% amid tariff shifts and weaker manufacturing data
QQQ opened down 0.36% but finished up 1.00%, outpacing SPY's 0.43% gain by 0.58 percentage points. Tariff proposals and White House remarks accompanied sharp intraday reversals. The ISM manufacturing PMI contracted at 49 and JOLTS openings missed estimates. Semiconductor consolidation and OpenAI capacity delays added technology-specific context.
3 session driversTariff policy shifts5 key headlinesTrump Aides Draft Sweeping 20% Tariffs On 'At Least Most' Imports: Report
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.79%
SPY+0.29%
Tariff-rate rollout frames a 3.70% QQQ slide and 0.82-point lag
QQQ opened down 1.40% and finished down 3.70%, trailing SPY's 2.88% decline by 0.82 percentage point. The tariff rollout set a 10% baseline and detailed 25% auto, 34% China, and 32% Taiwan rates. The China-rate bulletin coincided with a 3.08% QQQ drop and a 2.07% SPY drop over the following 15 minutes. Earlier, Tesla deliveries missed estimates while ADP employment and factory orders exceeded forecasts.
3 session driversSweeping tariff rollout5 key headlinesPresident Trump Says U.S. To Apply 34% Tariff On Imports From China
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.73%
SPY+0.66%
QQQ loses 5.49% as tariff responses widen and ISM services slows
QQQ opened down 4.13% and finished down 5.49%, trailing SPY's 4.98% decline by 0.51 percentage point. Tariff developments broadened as Canada announced a 25% levy on non-USMCA U.S.-made autos, the White House considered a critical-minerals investigation, and exemptions covered semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and oil. March ISM services fell to a nine-month low of 50.8, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook said tariff uncertainty could weaken the economy.
3 session driversWidening tariff response5 key headlinesExpress News | In March, the USA's ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the lowest in the last nine months.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-5.35%
SPY-4.76%
QQQ falls 6.32% as retaliation deepens a tech-led selloff
QQQ fell 6.32% and SPY lost 5.81%, leaving QQQ 0.50 percentage points behind. China's 34% tariff and rare-earth controls broadened the trade confrontation, while a stronger payroll gain, Powell's inflation and growth warning, and the EU's planned response framed the day's risks.
3 session driversTariff retaliation5 key headlinesExpress News | The State Council Tariff Committee: A 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported Commodities originating from the USA.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-6.09%
SPY-5.81%
Baseline tariff takes effect during the weekend closure
U.S. equity markets were closed for the weekend. President Trump's 10% baseline tariffs on most U.S. imports took effect on Saturday, keeping the implementation of the new trade policy in focus.
1 session driverBaseline tariff implementation1 key headlineTrump's 10% Tariff On Most Imports Is Finally Here, Taking Effect Saturday
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Tariff standoff spans Sunday futures and Asian markets
U.S. cash equities were closed on Sunday. Tariff tensions remained the central theme as U.S. futures fell sharply, Asian markets sold off, the EU prepared countermeasures, and the White House said more than 50 nations had sought talks.
4 session driversTariff policy standoff6 key headlinesUS Stock Futures Tumble, Dow Futures Drop More Than 1000 Points as White House Stands Firm on Tariffs
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ reverses a 3.40% opening drop to gain 1.46% through tariff whipsaws
QQQ gained 1.46% and SPY rose 0.84%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.62 percentage points after both opened down more than 3%. A false tariff-pause headline and its correction, a renewed 50% China tariff threat, Fed inflation concerns, and corporate supply-chain adjustments framed the volatile recovery.
3 session driversTariff-policy whipsaw5 key headlinesWhite House Rejects Market-Moving Hassett Tariff-Pause Headline as False
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.30%
SPY-0.14%
Opening gains vanish as QQQ ends down 3.19% amid tariff pressure
QQQ fell 3.19% and SPY lost 2.74%, leaving QQQ behind by 0.45 percentage points after both opened more than 3.4% higher. Tariff legislation and investigations, technology supply-chain adjustments, and the Fed's cautious policy stance framed the sharp reversal.
3 session driversTariff-policy pressure5 key headlinesSeven Republican senators break ranks as a bipartisan bill seeks to curb Trump's tariff powers
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-1.76%
SPY-1.51%
A 90-day tariff pause lands as QQQ jumps 12.02% and leads SPY
QQQ rose 12.02% and SPY gained 9.95%, leaving QQQ ahead by 2.06 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. China's tariff increase, an immediate 90-day U.S. tariff pause, Google AI announcements, and the Fed's risk discussion framed an exceptionally volatile session.
3 session driversTariff-policy reversal5 key headlinesTrump authorizes immediate 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+11.80%
SPY+9.44%
QQQ slides 4.89% as tariff and rate concerns outweigh softer inflation
QQQ fell 4.89% and SPY lost 4.83%, with SPY ahead by 0.06 percentage points after both opened sharply lower. Softer March core inflation, the clarification that China tariffs totaled 145%, the Fed's stagflation concern, and a higher 30-year auction yield framed the session.
3 session driversInflation and the Fed4 key headlines"Trump Tariffs On China Now Total 145%, White House Clarifies" - CNBC
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-4.25%
SPY-4.36%
SPY gains 1.85% and edges QQQ amid softer PPI, tariffs and rate strain
SPY gained 1.85% and QQQ rose 1.78%, with SPY ahead by 0.07 percentage points after both opened slightly lower. A softer March PPI, China's tariff increase on U.S. goods, rising Michigan inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve comments on inflation and market stability framed the session.
3 session driversTrade tariff escalation6 key headlinesChina's Finance Ministry Earlier Announced It Will Raise Additional Tariffs On U.S. Goods To 125% From 84%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.81%
SPY+1.79%
Chip tariff exemptions share Saturday focus with AI funding and Tesla pressure
U.S. markets were closed, leaving QQQ and SPY at Friday's regular close. Saturday reports focused on reciprocal-tariff exemptions for communications equipment and semiconductors, Safe Superintelligence's $32 billion valuation and investor backing, used-Tesla listings, and federal spending.
4 session driversTechnology tariff exemption4 key headlinesExpress News | The USA announced that communications equipment, semiconductors, integrated circuits, and other goods will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Sunday turns to semiconductor tariffs, Meta antitrust and Apple's inventory buffer
With U.S. markets closed, QQQ and SPY remained at Friday's regular closes and neither led. Sunday reporting centered on the semiconductor tariff path, Meta's antitrust exposure, Apple's inventory cushion and OpenAI usage.
4 session driversSemiconductor tariff path6 key headlinesReport: Trump to Direct Commerce to Open Section 232 Semiconductor Investigation
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Early surge fades, leaving SPY ahead amid tariff and rate concerns
QQQ rose 0.19% and SPY gained 0.55%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.36 percentage points after both surrendered most of their opening gains. New York Fed survey signals and Waller's tariff-inflation warning set a cautious macro backdrop, while new Section 232 probes and U.S. AI-manufacturing plans shaped the technology picture.
2 session driversTariff and inflation pressure6 key headlinesNew York Fed Survey: Unemployment-Rise Expectations Highest Since April 2020
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.66%
SPY+0.94%
Small opening gains give way to 1% declines as trade and chip risks stay in focus
QQQ fell 1.13% and SPY lost 1.03%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.10 percentage points after both opened slightly higher. Tariff exemptions and weaker import demand kept trade policy in focus, while firmer New York manufacturing data and Bank of America's consumer update offered mixed domestic signals. Nvidia's new China export-license requirement and ASML's results added overnight context for the chip sector.
3 session driversTrade-policy crosscurrents6 key headlinesExpress News | Canada will grant a six-month tariff exemption on some US Commodities.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.11%
SPY-0.26%
Chip restrictions and Fed tariff warnings frame a 2.94% QQQ fall
QQQ fell 2.94% and SPY lost 2.17%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.77 percentage points. Stronger retail sales but weaker industrial production, new chip-export constraints, soft ASML bookings, and Powell's warning about tariff effects framed the session. Taiwan Semiconductor then reported better-than-estimated quarterly results during overnight trading.
3 session driversMixed macro data6 key headlinesPowell says announced tariff increases are much larger than anticipated
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-3.01%
SPY-2.21%
QQQ edges SPY after an intraday slide and after-hours recovery amid rate and tech headlines
QQQ gained 0.33% and SPY rose 0.27%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.05 percentage points. Both opened higher, lost ground during regular trading, and recovered after hours as an ECB rate cut, pressure on Fed leadership, Google's advertising-technology ruling, and tariff-related supply-chain news framed the day.
3 session driversRates and macro data6 key headlinesECB Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points; Trump Says the Fed Should Cut Too
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.03%
SPY+0.14%
Good Friday brings Apple tariff relief, Fed pressure and new AI models
U.S. equity markets were closed for Good Friday, leaving QQQ and SPY without a regular-session move. News centered on Apple's reported iPhone tariff exemption, White House consideration of removing Fed Chair Powell, Daly's inflation caution, OpenAI's new models, China's outreach to Nvidia, and delays to Tesla production plans.
3 session driversTrade and technology policy6 key headlinesExpress News | The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett spoke to reporters, mentioning that Trump is considering whether firing Powell is an option.
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Weekend headlines center on China trade strain, tech taxes and Tesla delays
U.S. equity markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY without a regular-session move. News centered on White House consideration of a China-tariff task force, U.S.-Italy opposition to digital taxes on large technology companies, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the IMF's view that global recession was not imminent, a delay to Tesla's lower-cost Model Y, and Japan's resistance to a quick U.S. trade agreement.
3 session driversChina trade frictions6 key headlinesWhite House considers task force to address China tariff supply-chain risks
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Fed independence and tariff disputes dominate a market-closed Sunday
U.S. equity markets were closed on Sunday, leaving QQQ and SPY without a regular-session move. News centered on Goolsbee's defense of Federal Reserve independence, China's response to U.S. tariff pressure on other countries, an anti-tariff declaration backed by more than 1,200 economists, Ishiba's exchange-rate stance, Jensen Huang's Shanghai meeting, and Tesla's Model Y testing in India.
3 session driversFed independence and policy6 key headlinesChina's Commerce Ministry responds to U.S. tariff pressure on countries' trade with China
Market closed · No intraday price curve
QQQ falls 2.03% in a broad decline as Fed and tariff risks persist
QQQ fell 2.03% and SPY lost 1.97%, leaving SPY ahead by 0.06 percentage points. Fed policy pressure and softer leading data framed the macro backdrop. Tariff developments and reports involving Huawei, Amazon and Google added technology and trade context.
3 session driversFed policy and growth6 key headlinesU.S. Leading Index (MoM) For March -0.7% Vs -0.5% Est.; -0.2% Prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-2.45%
SPY-2.36%
Tariff de-escalation signals accompany a 4.75% QQQ rebound as Tesla takes focus after hours
QQQ gained 4.75% and SPY rose 4.43%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.32 percentage points. Bessent and Trump offered signs of lower U.S.-China tariff tension, while IMF and regional data kept growth risks in view. OpenAI's Chrome testimony and Tesla's earnings and management updates added technology context through the close and after-hours trading.
4 session driversChina tariff de-escalation6 key headlines'Bessent Sees De-Escalation With China, Situation Unsustainable'- Bloomberg
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.60%
SPY+2.54%
Tariff talks, softer PMIs and chip news frame QQQ's 2.51% gain
QQQ finished 2.51% higher and SPY gained 1.79%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.72 percentage point. Both opened with gains above 2%, then gave back part of the advance during regular trading before a modest after-hours recovery. Headlines included a conditional White House path to lower China tariffs, a slower 51.2 flash composite PMI, a cautious Fed Beige Book, Chinese demand for Nvidia H20 chips and an earnings beat from Lam Research.
4 session driversConditional tariff relief6 key headlinesWhite House Would Look At Lowering Tariffs On Chinese Imports Pending Talks With Beijing; Any Steps Would Be In Conjunction With China Talks, Not Unilateral
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.23%
SPY+1.55%
QQQ climbs 3.30% as durable goods surprise and Big Tech earnings lead the day
QQQ ended 3.30% higher and SPY gained 2.42%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.89 percentage point. Both recovered from premarket lows, opened modestly above the prior close, advanced through regular trading and added further gains after hours. The news mix paired a 9.2% durable-goods jump with a flat core reading, conflicting signals on China trade contacts, Waller's labor-market contingency, Intel's weak Q2 outlook and Alphabet's earnings and spending update.
4 session driversMixed durable-goods details6 key headlinesChina denies that U.S. trade talks are under way and calls for unilateral tariffs to be removed
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+2.78%
SPY+2.08%
QQQ gains 1.21% as Michigan data and tariff developments shape trading
QQQ ended 1.21% higher and SPY gained 0.83%, leaving QQQ ahead by 0.38 percentage point. Both opened close to the prior close, then advanced during regular trading and held most gains after hours. The day's context included mixed Michigan inflation and sentiment readings, tariff costs reaching retail prices, Apple's India supply-chain shift and Alphabet's disclosure that AI generated more than 30% of its code.
3 session driversMixed Michigan readings5 key headlinesMichigan 1-year inflation expectations were 6.5% versus 6.7% expected and 5.0% prior
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+1.11%
SPY+0.70%
Weekend news turns to trade pressure, technology supply chains and workforce shifts
U.S. equity markets were closed for the weekend, leaving QQQ and SPY without a regular-session move. News included China's cancellation of U.S. pork orders, a JPMorgan survey on stagflation and trade-war risks, a deadly blast at an Iranian port, Tesla's Canadian pricing response to tariffs, Intel workforce reductions, and Apple's reported plan to shift more iPhone production to India.
3 session driversTrade and geopolitical risk6 key headlinesDeadly Blast at Iranian Port Tied to Missile Fuel Shipment: 5 Dead, More Than 700 Injured
Market closed · No intraday price curve
Weekend news centers on tariffs, AI infrastructure and geopolitical risk
U.S. equity markets were closed for the weekend, so QQQ and SPY had no regular-session move. News centered on tariff policy and factory disruptions, tight Nvidia GPU supply amid strong AI inference demand, Google's defense of Chrome in court, continuing U.S.-Iran differences, and record global defense spending.
3 session driversTariffs and supply chains6 key headlinesTrump Tariffs Prompt Suspension Of Chinese Factory Operations And Shift To New Markets
Market closed · No intraday price curve
SPY edges QQQ in a near-flat finish amid trade and chip news
QQQ finished essentially flat at -0.02%, while SPY edged up 0.08% and led by 0.10 percentage points. Trade-negotiation signals and China-related chip pressure accompanied several intraday turns, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing index weakened to -35.8. After hours, IBM announced a $150 billion U.S. investment plan and the Treasury raised its second-quarter borrowing estimate to $514 billion.
4 session driversTrade negotiation signals6 key headlinesBessent says trading partners offered tariff proposals and U.S. agencies are in contact with China
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.02%
SPY+0.05%
Early losses fade for QQQ and SPY alongside labor, tariff and chip updates
QQQ erased a 0.49% opening decline to finish up 0.22%, while SPY recovered from a 0.35% opening drop to gain 0.39% and led by 0.17 percentage points. Consumer confidence fell to 86 and March JOLTS openings came in at 7.192 million, with both ETFs advancing after the 10:00 releases. Trade updates included an unnamed deal awaiting approval and relief from overlapping auto tariffs. Later, Super Micro's preliminary results missed expectations, while a Reuters report said the administration was considering replacing its AI-chip export tier system.
3 session driversCooler consumer and labor data6 key headlinesExpress News | In April, the USA Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index recorded 86, the lowest level since May 2020.
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ+0.64%
SPY+0.60%
QQQ and SPY turn opening losses into gains amid GDP and Big Tech earnings
QQQ reversed a 1.74% opening decline to finish up 1.37%, while SPY recovered from a 1.21% opening loss to gain 0.89%. QQQ led by 0.48 percentage points. Before the open, first-quarter GDP contracted 0.3% against expectations for 0.2% growth, while core PCE prices rose 3.5% versus 2.6% previously. Both ETFs fell sharply over the next 15 minutes. At 10:00, March core PCE inflation matched expectations and pending home sales rose 6.1%, with QQQ and SPY then rebounding 0.70% and 0.55% over 15 minutes. Technology news stayed prominent through the session, and after the close Meta and Microsoft both reported earnings and revenue above expectations.
3 session driversGrowth and inflation shock6 key headlinesUS GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -0.3% Vs +0.2% Est.; Prior +2.4%
Regular session · Close 16:00 ET
QQQ-0.01%
SPY+0.01%